Alternate Electoral Maps III


And here is a more graphic depiction of success of the major parties in the provincial elections of 1999 (see above post)
So the biggest difference between the NNP and VF is that the former ditched White Supremacy to court the Afrikaner-speaking Coloured population more effectively?
Yup. Basically (also in OTL) the NNP sought to create a sense of South African common identity, based upon Afrikaans language, which of course would be well received among the Cape Coloureds who could be culturally close enough.
Meanwhile the Vryheidsfront emerged from within elements of the major opposition party, the Conservative Party, which campaigned for "No" in the end of apartheid referendum.
In general their support base were the conservative rural farmers
Polling averages in October 1992 had Clinton winning by a 14-point margin. What if the results had kept this massive lead? Final outcome: Bush wins even fewer EVs than either Goldwater or Hoover and a lower percentage of the popular voter than Landon.

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The electoral maps for the elections spanning 1912-1928 in my wikibox series A Path Less Travelled:



Theodore Roosevelt (P-NY)/Hiram Johnson (P-CA) 193 EVs; 33.4% PV
William H. Taft (R-OH)/Nicholas M. Butler (R-NY) 191 EVs; 30.2% PV
Woodrow Wilson (D-NJ)/Ollie M. James (D-KY) 32.8% PV



Theodore Roosevelt (P-NY)/Thomas R. Marshall (P-IN) 283 EVs; 37.2% PV
Nicholas M. Butler (R-NY)/Henry C. Lodge Sr. (R-MA) 143 EVs; 30.4%
Willard Saulsbury Jr. (D-MD)/Champ Clark (D-MO) 105 EVs; 30.1% PV



Leonard Wood (P-NH)/George Norris (P-NB) 294 EVs; 36.2% PV
Robert L. Owen (D-OK)/Lawrence D. Tyson (D-TN) 101 EVs; 25.5% PV
Carter Glass (CD-VA)/Blair Lee I (CD-MD) 85 EVs; 16.1% PV
Joseph S. Frelinghuysen (R-NJ)/Calvin Coolidge (R-MA) 51 EVs; 20.4% PV



Leonard Wood (P-NH)/George Norris (P-NB) 350 EVs; 45.2% PV
Frank O. Lowden (AL-IL)/Al Smith (AL-NY) 123 EVs; 37.1% PV
Joseph W. Bailey (CD-TX)/Carter Glass (CD-TX) 58 EVs; 15.4% PV


George Norris (P-NB)/Franklin D. Roosevelt (P-NY) 266 EVs; 39.6% PV
Calvin Coolidge (AL-MA)/Oscar W. Underwood (AL-AL) 190 EVs; 39.1% PV
Clifford M. Walker (CD-GA)/John N. Garner (CD-TX) 75 EVs; 17.1% PV
A look at electoral college apportionment for the 2024 and 2028 elections in A Path Less Travelled:


In TTL, the House follows the cube root rule (cube root of U.S. pop - Senate seats) mostly, meaning there are 596 House seats for 2023-2033. The U.S. in this world has 52 States (PR and Baja California being the two, non-OTL states) and also apportions 3 EVs to DC like OTL. The result, as the map shows, is 702 electoral votes, with a candidate needing 352 to win.

The Republic of Sierra, a republic of the American Federation found at the heart of the Rocky Mountains, has long defined itself as the quintessential 'American' nation to the point of parody. Originally founded by settlers moving westward who felt alienated from the massive conflict between the Federation's weak federal government and the aggressive efforts by Southern states (like its western neighbour, Texas) to protect slavery, and wanted to establish a new territory from the unorganized regions in the west that would have a weak federal government without the authoritarian institutions of the South. The settlers were so committed to this they adopted the snake from the famous 'Don't Tread On Me' flag used by the Founding Fathers as part of the republic's flag, and had Sierra adopt the most limited taxation system of any American republic up to that point. A contemporary satirist joked that 'they would have called it Liberia if only the ACS hadn't got there first.'

The country's obsession with liberty carries over to its main political parties- the Liberal Party and the Freedom Party, which both considered themselves committed to liberal principles but have slowly evolved to effectively be a party of modern liberalism and classical liberalism respectively. For much of the 19th and 20th century, Sierra sought to highlight itself as the pinnacle of American liberal capitalism, turning the capital city of Denver into a major urban centre by attracting businesses there en masse with low taxes and large business opportunities. While an agrarian movement pressured the larger parties and participated in governments that pushed policy in a populist direction during the 1890s when silver was discovered in the country and the 1930s during the Great Depression, the general consensus of Sierrans was that the best thing to do in times of economic hardship was to weather the storm.

This only started to change in the 1970s, as while most of the developed world started turning in the direction of neoliberalism, Sierra, long a haven of laissez-faire economics, experienced considerable upheaval in the other direction. This came in the form of two parties, one quite ideologically coherent and the other more disparate and unique to Sierra. The first was the Left Party, which picked up considerable grassroots support from poor voters in Sierra and is credited with pushing Liberal Prime Minister Gary Hart and his party to the left after he was first elected in 1973, as well as making him switch from 100 FPTP seats to a party list PR system where the whole republic of Sierra forms a single constituency electing 100 members.

The other party was the Freak Power Party, started by one of the most famous Sierrans (though he was born in north Texas)- Hunter S. Thompson, self-proclaimed 'founder of Gonzo journalism' and author of the eclectic 1960s novel Fear & Loathing in Reno and recently-elected Sheriff of Summit County, where its successor the Anarchy Party retains its base to this day. Freak Power and the Left forced Hart's Liberals to change track, and during the 1980s Sierra started to adopt some of the most libertarian laws in the Federation, having the Federation's least restrictive birth control and abortion policies, its most relaxed drug laws and virtually no laws of censorship or against religious freedom. (Of course, the weak federal government allowed conservative areas like Sierra Springs to put their own restrictions in place, much to the frustration of Freak Power and the Left.)

Perhaps unsurprisingly, this created a large rift in Sierran society, and Freedom Party leader Dick Lamm asserted in the run up to the 1989 election that he would be trying to reverse 'Sierra's slide into anarchy'. In response to this, Thompson renamed his party the Anarchy Party (much to the annoyance of actual anarchists) and took to calling Lamm 'Dick Hedd' during his campaign. While the Freedom Party saw Thompson's tactics as immature, he successfully painted Lamm as a killjoy and it would not be until the 1993 election that the more moderate Ben Nighthorse Campbell would kick the Anarchy and Left parties out of government.

Campbell's administration, and that of his successor Bill Owens, would keep members of the Freedom Party Sierra's Prime Ministers until 2005, in a rather unusual form- a grand coalition with the Liberals, which significantly weakened the latter party until Bill Ritter pulled them decisively out of the coalition for that year's election. That year's election saw a striking development, as the Anarchy Party, after Hunter S. Thompson's death that year, overhauled its policy agenda to become more syncretic while retaining its standard anti-establishment, libertarian attitude. Rising to become the third-biggest party in contrast to its usual fourth behind the Left, Anarchy at first supported Ritter, but in mid-2007 switched to backing a Freedom government to try and tackle the Great Recession better. This, however, seriously damaged its appeal to the anti-establishment protest voters who traditionally backed it, and it lost more than half its seats in 2009.

The Freedom Party's then-leader Mike Coffman is, to date, the last figure from that party to serve as Prime Minister of Sierra. Coffman's successor was Liberal John Hickenlooper, who intially presented himself as a moderate but slowly pivoted over 6 years to be more left-leaning as he expanded the Sierra Health Association (SHA)'s coverage, did not stop the decriminalization of drug possession in any of the cases bought before his government despite expressing his opposition to such measures during the 2009 campaign, and implemented weapons bans after the 2012 Aurora shooting.

Hickenlooper resigned in 2015, and the Liberals elected as his successor Jared Polis, the first gay Prime Minister of Sierra. Polis, with Hickenlooper and every party besides Freedom's support, abolished the death penalty in Sierra and increased the minimum wage and infrastructure spending in the state. While all this emboldened Freedom under Cory Gardner, the real beneficiaries of the waning support for the Liberals after eight years in government were in fact the Greens, which have recently grown in strength due to the issue of fracking in Sierra becoming prevalent.

The 2017 election saw fairly little change, as the two major parties lost seats and the Liberals' lead over Freedom was reduced, but the Greens made sizeable gains to come third while the Left and Anarchy stayed fairly steady. The real news was the massive fall in support for the two major parties combined to 54.2%, the smallest it has been since 1989. Polis retained a majority by inviting the Left and Greens into a coalition, and they, combined with the recently rising force of the Pirates (who are nowhere near as strong as in Plata, but still a much stronger force than the average, unsurprising given Sierra's libertarian and anti-establishment bent), command a 60% majority in Plata's National Congress.

While polls during the early years of the 2017-21 term suggested Polis would be unlikely to win another term, Freedom has been badly hampered by the COVID-19 pandemic, as the counties where it governs have often had laxer lockdown policies and higher rates of infection than those run by other parties. Gardner's efforts to crack down on them for this have been met with aggressive infighting, while the Liberals have generally given in to their more left-wing coalition partners under pressure to ensure lockdowns and furloughs are implemented in the counties they control. Consequently, when the election comes around next year, Freedom are now expected to have a mountain to climb to retake control of the federal government in Sierra.
This is the 1904 U.S. Presidential election in the FNM-verse with a new base map I wipped up:


Nelson A. Miles (Fed.-MA)/George W. Ross (Fed.-HU) 343 EVs: 45.51% PV
Walter Rauschenbusch (Wor.-NY)/Terrence V. Powderly (Wor.-PA) 101 EVs; 36.05% PV
Henry A. du Pont (Con.-DE); Furnifold M. Simmons (Con.-NC) 16 EVs; 13.32% PV
Other 5.52%