Alternate Electoral Maps III

In order to lower the percentage of alternate US presidential elections, I present this:

From A Loyal City on a Hill:

In one of the most contentious elections in Columbian history, the electorate was split almost perfectly evenly between four political parties, leading to a hung parliament. The Liberal Alliance, led by Andrew Cuomo, won the most seats and was the only party to win more than 200 seats. However, unable to form a government, they were forced to allow the Liberal-Conservatives to lead a coalition government with the Columbian National People's Party. This led to John Kasich becoming prime minister, with Chris Christie becoming deputy prime minister. Labour-Welfare, on the other hand, saw their worst performance in nearly a century, despite garnering nearly 10 million votes. This has, since the election, led to a massive call for voting reform and a switch away from first past the post. Kasich has promised that it will be put to referendum before the next election, but with the expiration date on his government looming, there has not yet been any sign of such a referendum.

Results:
Liberal Alliance (lead by Andrew Cuomo):
12,335,664 votes (27.3%, 208 seats)
Liberal-Conservatives (lead by John Kasich): 9,947,375 votes (21.0%, 175 seats)
Columbian National People's Party (lead by Chris Christie): 10,757,654 votes (23.8%, 156 seats)
Labour-Welfare (lead by Paul Tonko): 9,883,028 votes (21.9%, 29 seats)
Green Party of Columbia (lead by Jill Stein): 712,289 votes (1.6%, 0 seats)
Independents and other parties: 1,946,500 votes (4.3%, 0 seats)

Voter turnout: 65.4%

Riding map:

Popular vote chart:

Parliament standings:
 
Here's another Chinese provincial election map.

1582311563549.png

In some ways, Shanxi is a significant contrast to most of China in that its pre-democratic history has been greatly influential on its modern politics, rather than political conflict being muted by the one-party rule of the Kuomintang. From 1911 until his death in 1960, the province was ruled by the warlord (and later first Premier) Yan Xishan, one of the most transitional figures in early 20th century Chinese politics. By the 1930s, Yan had become a major ally of Zhang Xueliang and a supporter of his policy of guerilla warfare against the Japanese Imperial army, as well as instigating progressive reforms such as public works programmes inspired by FDR's New Deal and Stalin's Five-Year Plan (ironically, for the purpose of stymieing communism) and gradually introducing industrialization.

The legacy of such reforms at first created great loyalty to the Kuomintang, but when Yan died, he made his ally Bo Yibo his successor; as a former communist, Yan assumed Bo would preserve his interventionist reforms. This assumption was wrong, as Bo moved significantly to the right when he became Premier of Shanxi in the hopes of ingratiating himself to the increasingly paranoid anti-Communist President Chiang, trying to ban unionization and cutting welfare provisions heavily. This backfired badly, creating significant civil unrest in Shanxi as the economy and people's job prospects declined, and once the democratic era began, Shanxi developed a reputation as 'nì shì shěng' or 'the contrarian province', being the only province in the country to vote against Moshan in the 1975 and 1980 presidential elections and one of only 2 to do so in 1985. Its workers were also heavily supportive of the Tienanmen Square Revolution.

One might think, due to this character, it would be one of the most consistently left-wing provinces of China, but its support for the economically progressive side of the Kuomintang has kept its support for the Progressives at bay almost as successfully as Yan's reforms did for the communists. It has never backed a Progressive for President, starting with its antipathy towards Liu Xiaobo in the 1990 Presidential election due to the view that he cared more for social issues (on which the province, as a working-class industrial region, is fairly conservative) than economics and continuing into the present day. At the provincial level, however, Shanxi is indeed a strongly Progressive area, having consistently elected Progressive provincial governments ever since the assembly was established in 1990, though this is mostly due to the local branch and its members generally deviating more from the party line than members elsewhere, with this and its socio-economic climate leading some commentators to describe it as 'China's West Virginia'.

The state's provincial government demonstrates a similar, if milder, reverse of the national trend to that seen in neighbouring Shaanxi, as the Progressives have slightly weakened here in recent years. A big part of this is the bleeding of the left-wing vote to parties more amenable to environmental protection programmes, something that has become increasingly important as Shanxi has suffered greater and greater pollution over the course of the past 60 years, and infighting within the Shanxi Progressives over whether to cater to the voters they are bleeding or avoid alienating working-class voters who have remained loyal to the party due to its focus on protecting heavy industrial jobs.

One of the other major problems facing the Progressives going into the 2018 election were the corruption allegations made towards Premier Bai Yun, who was accused of bribery from an environmental engineering company, while her challenger, Kuomintang leader Wang Maoshe, presented himself as a candidate who would clean up Shanxi's political offices, running under the slogan, 'Virtue, cleanliness, Kuomintang'. As a result of all this, at first Wang led in the polls by huge margins (or at least the PR polls, where over half the assembly's seats are elected; the Progressives generally lead in the FPTP seats, which have the same boundaries as the National Congress districts a la the Welsh Assembly in the UK, generally due to personal votes for their members).

However, two months before the election, reporting began to be conducted of Wang's own corrupt dealings in his home city of Linfen. On top of this, the Green Party, on the upswing both from disillusioned Kuomintang voters and socially liberal left-wingers who balked at voting Progressive, started targeting Wang's home district. Bai also made the shrewd move of issuing a doctrine for the Shanxi Progressives called the 'candidate's plan', which gave every Progressive candidate the right to declare their own personal view on environmentalism to voters regardless of the party line. This effectively allowed candidates to say if they were pro- or anti-environmental regulation to appeal to voters in different areas, and avoided attracting the ire of either side.

Though the Progressives lost seats in the election, going from 38 seats to 33 and losing their overall majority as well as narrowly losing the popular vote for the PR seats to the Kuomintang, their main rivals failed to significantly improve on their 2014 result, with Wang losing his FPTP seat to the Greens and the party falling to 22 seats overall. While a few Kuomintang figureheads declared they would try to form a grand coalition with the Greens, Economic Liberals and Loyalists, this was widely recognized as a pipedream; even if such an alliance had taken place, it would have produced a government two seats short of a majority.

Ironically, the government that did take power flew in the face of the strategy that won Bai the election in the first place, as she agreed to an alliance with the Greens, this being functionally the only two-party alliance which the parliamentary arithmetic allowed. While traditionally coalition agreements tend to hurt the smaller party more, the Greens have managed to effectively manage the Progressives' legislative agenda in the 2 years since the election, and the Kuomintang has surged again; it seems possible that, if a suitably attractive policy programme comes from that party at the next election, the Greens might choose to switch to supporting them over Bai.
 
SOUTH AFRICA, 2019
Alternate electoral system:
400 seats.
260 seats elected by first-past the post in the individual districts, with 5 MPs elected per district.
90 seats elected in provinces with 10 per province.
And 50 seats elected by proportion nationwide.
Results:
ANC
1582841435431.png

ANC wins with 243 MPs, with at least 2 MPs in each district.
1582841523758.png

2 nd place belongs to DA with 83 MPs
1582841586486.png

EFF comes third with 52 MPs.
1582841630932.png

The Inkatha Freedom Party has won 14 MPs, gaining only in KwaZulu Natal.
1582841714044.png

The Freedom Front Plus failed to win any seat in the districts, only in the provinces and nationwide, with 6 MPs total.
Ultimately two more parties reached the parliament as well the GOOD party and the National Freedom Party
1582842107764.png

1582842129893.png
 


The United States Organization of American States membership referendum, commonly referred to as the OAS referendum or the Amerexit referendum, took place on September 5, 2017 in the United States to ask voters whether the country should remain a member of, or leave, the Organization of American States (OAS). The referendum, the first nationwide referendum in the United States, was enabled by the National Referendum Act – which authorized the Federal government to conduct a non-binding referendum and set up a separate voting infrastructure from that utilized by state governments. 2101 separate counting areas were set up by the newly established Department of Referenda to administer the referendum. The referendum resulted in 51.9% of valid votes being cast to leave the OAS. The two-year withdrawal process was initiated on November 12, 2018. The withdrawal period was extended until April 5, 2021. At 5pm EST on April 5, 2021, the United States officially withdrew from the OAS.

Membership in the OAS has long been a topic of political debate in the United States. The United States joined the OAS in 1948 and renewed its membership in 1994 when the OAS became a proper political union of its 35 member states. The American Independence Party (AIP), a right-wing party which was established in 1999 and advocated for the United States to leave the OAS, began to gather appreciable support ahead of the 2016 Presidential Election – worrying the center-right Republican Party, which feared it would lose votes to the nascent party and lose to their primary rivals, the Democratic Party. As such, the Republican platform adopted at the 2016 Republican National Convention promised a referendum on United States membership in the OAS, and Republican presidential nominee, incumbent President Mitt Romney reiterated that promise in a bid to win over AIP voters. Mitt Romney would win re-election in 2016, and the National Referendum Act was signed on April 7, 2017.

A multitude of groups campaigned on either side of the referendum, but the Stronger Together PAC became the predominant group campaigning for the United States to remain in the OAS, and was endorsed by President Mitt Romney, Vice President Paul Ryan, and Speaker of the House Eric Cantor. The America First PAC became the primary group campaigning for the United States to leave the OAS and was endorsed by Republican Senators Tom Cotton and Ted Cruz, as well as Democratic Senator Joe Manchin. Other campaign groups, political parties, businesses, unions, newspapers, and prominent individuals were also involved, with both sides having supporters from across the political spectrum. Parties in favor of “remain” included the Democratic Party, Libertarian Party, and Green Party. The American Independence Party campaigned in favor of “leave,” while the Republican Party did not take a stance on the issue. Despite the official statements of their party chairpersons, the Republican and Democratic parties did not sanction members who campaigned for either outcome in the referendum.

Immediately after the result, financial markets reacted negatively domestically and worldwide. President Romney announced that he would resign as President, after his unsuccessful effort to campaign for the United States to remain in the OAS. This was the second time a president had resigned from office in the United States. Vice President Paul Ryan became President on September 6, 2017. President Ryan ultimately lost in a primary challenge to Tom Cotton, who went on to win the 2020 Presidential election – and ultimately oversee the American exit from the Organization of American States.

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The scenario text is heavily inspired by the Wikipedia page for the 2016 United Kingdom European Union membership referendum.

For this map, I used opinion polling data to see how various demographic groups voted in the Brexit referendum, then created a model to transpose those demographic voting characteristics onto comparable American groups. Factors utilized included race/ethnicity, age, educational attainment, category of occupation, and income. Results on the map are by Public Use Microdata Areas (PUMA).

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I do not intend for this map to reopen litigation on the merits of Brexit, though I would be intrigued to hear which areas you all think might vote differently than on my map. I already suspect that Southern Texas might be more Remain than this map indicates - though I suppose with the UK as an island, I don't have a great proxy for what a very long land border would do in terms of impacting voting results.
 
Though it would mostly resemble 1976's margins and map.
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I didn't have Richards do quite as well in most of the South as Carter did in 1976 because I think too many Dixiecrats had already died off by that point for such a blowout to be possible at the Presidential level.
 
X-Posting This from the map thread.
For my EG: Liberals and Conservatives, thought I might repost it here to see what you guys think.

The Election of 1880:
Presidential Election:

View attachment 528297
Alfonso Cano Del Rio (Partido Liberal): 11 States 61.1% (54.1% PV)
Luca Galán (Partido Conservador): 7 States 38.9% (45.9% PV)
The presidential election was won by Alfonso Cano Del Rio, who wins a solid majority of the states, and the popular vote. In order for the Conservatives to triumph, they needed a robust operation, and turnout in order to overcome the liberal lean of the country. This was not the case. An average campaign, combined with low turnout for conservative voters and the successful tarring of many candidates effectively doomed the campaign. The silver lining of all of this was that the Federalists by and large supported them, providing at least a path towards victory in the next election.

Senate Results:

View attachment 528299
Communístas (Marquésistas):
0 Seats
Partido Liberal
21 Seats
- Liberales Radicales:
2 Seats
- Liberales Nacionales:
15 Seats
- Liberales Conservadores (Mozqueristas):
4 Seats
Federales:
2 Seats
Cristianos Democraticos:
2 Seats
Partido Conservador:
11 Seats
- Conservadores Constitucionales:
3 Seats
- Conservadores:
7 Seats
- Conservadores Independientes:
1 Seat
The Liberal party has a solid majority in the Senate.

House Results:

View attachment 528305
Communístas (Marquésistas):
0 Seats
Partido Liberal
79 Seats
- Liberales Radicales:
9 Seats
- Liberales:
52 Seats
- Liberales Conservadores (Mozqueristas):
18 Seats
Federales:
8 Seats
Cristianos Democraticos:
4 Seats
Partido Conservador:
52 Seats
- Conservadores Constitucionales:
16 Seats
- Conservadores:
36 Seats
- Conservadores Independientes:
0 Seats
The Liberal party has a majority in the House, as it does in the Senate, but it is reliant on the Radical Liberals, a faction of the party notorious for its disagreements with the rest of the party.

Governors:

Results:

View attachment 528307
 
A larger version of the map from this wikibox here.

Long story short (ish), the Booth assassination plot gets Johnson too, leading to a more radical reconstruction that still fails but leaves the then-black majority states of Mississippi, Louisiana, and South Carolina under black majority rule rather than white redeemer rule. The state GOP in those states remains along the lines of the Radical Republicans, rather than becoming more conservative, first having a populist agrarian character, going as far as land reform among other things, and then later taking on more of a progressive and socialistic character. The 1912 election doesn't see a Taft/Roosevelt split (Roosevelt is able to narrowly beat Taft at the GOP convention and Taft doesn't split himself) but the Radical Republican wing of the party does end up splitting, and allying with the Socialist Party, running a joint ticket with Eugene Debs for President and Ida Wells (who still became an activist but went south to the Radical Republican states rather than north to Chicago) for Vice President. The Debs-Wells ticket fails to win any states outside the south, but comes in a strong third in the popular vote and comes close to winning some states and comes in second place in some others too.
ElectoralCollege1912 alt 2.png
 
election 2016 alternate.png

I was really bored and decided to make an election set in an alt history world. I don't really know what the concept was here, I'm still trying to figure that out.
 
I was really bored and decided to make an election set in an alt history world. I don't really know what the concept was here, I'm still trying to figure that out.
Quality map, dude. Funnily enough, even with such a small section of Upstate New York being its own state, by my rough math it would still have more population than Wyoming by around 70,000 or so. Depending on how that state came about, you may want to include some land further south into Albany and the Catskills, and/or out west with the Finger Lakes and Buffalo, though I obviously don't know your vision for any one part of this version of the United States yet.
 
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