Alternate Electoral Maps III

Oh and i decided to make a county map for this minimal electoral college victory

This would be about 300 to 350 counties, right? This is a rather interesting thought exercise if for nothing else. I just remember my friend and I talking about it one day, and I thought it would be interesting to post on here, for other people who might be interested in the subject to see.
 
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The southern Chinese province of Guangdong, or Canton, is the country's most populous province, surpassing Sichuan in 2005; with a population similar to those of Russia and the Philippines, it is also the largest subdivision in the world outside of India, and has a GDP comparable with California, in no small part due to its close proximity to the special administrative regions of Hong Kong and Macau, which attracts sizeable Western financial investment. Politically, it has long been the biggest stronghold of the Kuomintang, never voting for another party for President and with fewer than a quarter of its 71 National Congress districts generally seeing competitive races, most of them being in Progressive-leaning poor areas of the eastern part of the province and inner city Shenzhen. At the provincial government level, however, the Kuomintang's political dominance has been slowly ebbed away in recent decades, something which culminated in the 2019 election result.

When provincial devolution was first bought to Guangdong in 1991, the local Kuomintang (one of the most insular and corrupt in the nation) created the Provincial Assembly as a chamber with the 123 counties and county-equivalents each electing one member by FPTP. This was despite the sizeable disparities in population between these counties, ranging from the island of Nan'ao on the eastern coast with just 60,000 people to over 4 million in the Bao'an district of Shenzhen. However, in every election from 1991 to 2007, the Kuomintang retained a majority (albeit narrowly in the 1999 election, held during a slump in Hong Kong and by extension Guangdong's economy thanks to the lingering effect of the Asian financial crisis); it was not until the 2007 election, held as the Great Recession was severely affecting China, that they were finally forced out of government.

The force to replace them was a ragtag grand coalition between the all the other parties- the Progressives, Economic Liberals, Loyalists, Communists and the lone Green PAM (Provincial Assembly Member)- and four of the five Independents elected that year. Due to the narrowness of their majority, the effort to create an impartial committee to redraw the FPTP seats into equal-sized districts did not pass, but a compromise measure that created additional PR seats, with members assigned to each constituency (based on the prefectures) at a rate of about one per 700,000, was approved, and with the help of that measure, the Kuomintang's resurgence in 2011 was significantly less than expected, winning 125 of the 229 seats compared to the 59 out of 123 they had won in 2009.

While they considerably bolstered their majority thanks to President Wang's coattails in the 2015 provincial election, by 2019 the tide in Guangdong was shifting considerably. The Wang administration had started duelling with the Governor of Hong Kong, Wu Chi-lai, for his social liberalism and allegations that China was seeking to issue tariffs on investors into Hong Kong; this has not been well-received by Guangdong residents who rely on their links to the city to shore up their own province's economy. The Progressives, who have more in common ideologically with Wu, asserted that they would not countenance allowing tariffs on investors in Hong Kong, but instead promote better trade links and focus their attacks on the 'imperialist' US. The Kuomintang's negative campaign in response to this was untactful to say the least; the use of the English slogan 'Guangdong over Hong Kong' was especially badly recieved and seen as confusing in motivation. To make matters worse, President Wang was caught on audio saying 'it's Guangdong, we couldn't lose it if we tried' when an aide expressed concerns about the provincial elections.

Despite this, the non-Kuomintang parties were not so united in their line as in 2009; the Economic Liberals criticized the move due to their steadfast commitment to free trade, the Communists pushed for a similar anti-US line to the Progressives but with more extreme spending commitments, and the Loyalists simply took a contrarian stance and argued for tariffs on Hong Kong. This was not so important as it had been due to the PR seats, though, and ultimately the Progressives pulled ahead of the Kuomintang for the first time ever in the polls towards the end.

What had not been foreseen was the scale of the Progressive victory. Not only did the Kuomintang take a hammering in the PR districts, falling to fourth in the popular vote in Shenzhen on the Hong Kong border and ultimately winning just over half as many seats as the Progressives, they couldn't even win more FPTP districts, with 55 electing Progressives to 54 Kuomintang. They were left with just 84 seats, and even if the Economic Liberals had had enough seats to ally with them, the party's leader literally laughed when asked by a reporter if his party would support another provincial Kuomintang government. Instead, the government formed was an alliance between the Progressives, Communists and Greens, the first unequivocally left-of-centre government in Guangdong history.

Whether this is a sign of a new chapter in Guangdong's history or simply a fluke has yet to be seen, but with a comfortable majority in favour of electoral reform at last, the FPTP districts will almost certainly not use the same boundaries or number as Guangdong's counties come the next election.
 
A map based on this American Campaign Trail Map: https://www.americanhistoryusa.com/campaign-trail/game/1207128

1960: The New Frontier
Democratic: Senator John F Kennedy (MA)/Senator Lyndon B Johnson (TX): 366 Electoral Votes (360 Pledged), 34,535,513 Popular Vote (51.60%)
Republican: Vice President Richard Nixon (CA)/Ambassador to the United Nations Henry Cabot Lodge Jr (NY): 163 Electoral Votes,32,025,292 Popular vote (47.85%)

States Rights Democratic: Senator Harry F. Byrd (VA)/Senator Storm Thurmond (SC): 8 Electoral Votes (14 Pledged),369,409 Popular vote (0.55%)
 
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Chongqing, the largest city both in China and in the entire world (albeit not the largest metropolitan area), is also one of four cities in China to have a devolved assembly, and was the last to be granted one, not being established until the city voted to split from Sichuan province in 1997. Since then, every 4 years elections have been held to both the city council, comprising 27 members each elected from a FPTP district (making it the second-smallest province or city legislature behind Tianjin City Council) and the mayoralty, which features a two-round system with the first round being held 1 month before the second, and city council elections being held concurrently with the second.

By far the most dominant figure in the city's politics has been the current mayor, colourful Progressive Bo Xilai, who has been described by some outlets as 'the Chinese Ken Livingstone', mostly due to being simultaneously a very controversial left-wing figurehead (he was famously picked as the Progressive presidential nominee in 2010 and came closer than anyone in history to unseating a Kuomintang president at the height of the Great Recession in China) and for an image within the city comparable to the 'Mr London' status once enjoyed by Livingstone. As the mayoralty of Chongqing has no term limits and Bo retains considerable popularity within the city, he has won the position in every election since 2005, and aside from only winning re-election by around six points in 2013 he has done so by huge margins (in fact, in 2009 he won an absolute majority in the first round, the only time this has ever happened in any Chinese city mayor election). Despite his decline in 2013, in 2017 he surged back to a landslide victory over the outsider Kuomintang candidate Zhang Guoqing.

The city council has not been quite so decisive in the past, with the Kuomintang controlling it until 2005 and briefly regaining control in 2013. However, their period of control from 2013-17 was generally badly recieved, as the city council repeatedly blocked Bo's policy agenda and tried to force him to apply austerity measures, something he adamantly refused to do, declaring austerity 'a plan meant to replace the egalitarian Chongqing system with a bigger burden for the poor'. In something of a role reversal to the usual standard of Chinese politics, Bo moderated his policy agenda during the 2013-17 session of the city council, making significantly smaller investments than had been pledged during the 2009-13 term, where almost half a billion yuan had been spent on Bo's infrastructure spending, and passing a few cuts where no invoking of austerity was required.

This was a canny move, giving the impression to voters that Bo's egalitarianism was not blindly ideological and showing the dangers of a Kuomintang government for the city. By the time the 2017 election came round, the Kuomintang had plummeted in polls of the city's voters, and to that end Bo and the Progressives re-established their majority in a city council election that was held concurrently with the National Congress election (a practice in the city since the city council's establishment). Interestingly, where elections prior to 2013 had seen only the Progressives and Kuomintang win city council seats, the 2017 election saw the two Communist and single Green MP elected in 2013 hold their seats at the same time as an Economic Liberal, a Loyalist and an independent formerly associated with the Kuomintang were elected. With the opposition on just 5 seats, fewer than any previous election (though the Progressives have held more seats than the 16 they won at this election), it seems probable that Bo and his party's hold on the nation's largest city will continue for the foreseeable future unless something very unusual happens.
 
View attachment 508728

Chongqing, the largest city both in China and in the entire world (albeit not the largest metropolitan area), is also one of four cities in China to have a devolved assembly, and was the last to be granted one, not being established until the city voted to split from Sichuan province in 1997. Since then, every 4 years elections have been held to both the city council, comprising 27 members each elected from a FPTP district (making it the second-smallest province or city legislature behind Tianjin City Council) and the mayoralty, which features a two-round system with the first round being held 1 month before the second, and city council elections being held concurrently with the second.

By far the most dominant figure in the city's politics has been the current mayor, colourful Progressive Bo Xilai, who has been described by some outlets as 'the Chinese Ken Livingstone', mostly due to being simultaneously a very controversial left-wing figurehead (he was famously picked as the Progressive presidential nominee in 2010 and came closer than anyone in history to unseating a Kuomintang president at the height of the Great Recession in China) and for an image within the city comparable to the 'Mr London' status once enjoyed by Livingstone. As the mayoralty of Chongqing has no term limits and Bo retains considerable popularity within the city, he has won the position in every election since 2005, and aside from only winning re-election by around six points in 2013 he has done so by huge margins (in fact, in 2009 he won an absolute majority in the first round, the only time this has ever happened in any Chinese city mayor election). Despite his decline in 2013, in 2017 he surged back to a landslide victory over the outsider Kuomintang candidate Zhang Guoqing.

The city council has not been quite so decisive in the past, with the Kuomintang controlling it until 2005 and briefly regaining control in 2013. However, their period of control from 2013-17 was generally badly recieved, as the city council repeatedly blocked Bo's policy agenda and tried to force him to apply austerity measures, something he adamantly refused to do, declaring austerity 'a plan meant to replace the egalitarian Chongqing system with a bigger burden for the poor'. In something of a role reversal to the usual standard of Chinese politics, Bo moderated his policy agenda during the 2013-17 session of the city council, making significantly smaller investments than had been pledged during the 2009-13 term, where almost half a billion yuan had been spent on Bo's infrastructure spending, and passing a few cuts where no invoking of austerity was required.

This was a canny move, giving the impression to voters that Bo's egalitarianism was not blindly ideological and showing the dangers of a Kuomintang government for the city. By the time the 2017 election came round, the Kuomintang had plummeted in polls of the city's voters, and to that end Bo and the Progressives re-established their majority in a city council election that was held concurrently with the National Congress election (a practice in the city since the city council's establishment). Interestingly, where elections prior to 2013 had seen only the Progressives and Kuomintang win city council seats, the 2017 election saw the two Communist and single Green MP elected in 2013 hold their seats at the same time as an Economic Liberal, a Loyalist and an independent formerly associated with the Kuomintang were elected. With the opposition on just 5 seats, fewer than any previous election (though the Progressives have held more seats than the 16 they won at this election), it seems probable that Bo and his party's hold on the nation's largest city will continue for the foreseeable future unless something very unusual happens.
Where do you get/make the maps from?
 
Where do you get/make the maps from?
The basemaps I'm using are the counties and prefectures maps of China from Wikipedia, and editing the basemaps for the administrative divisions of Beijing and Chongqing. As someone pointed out, it's not super likely these boundaries would exist in my TL but it's easier than trying to map contemporary populations onto old boundaries, especially given how it's a lot harder to find consistent data for individual towns and cities than prefectures and counties.
 
The basemaps I'm using are the counties and prefectures maps of China from Wikipedia, and editing the basemaps for the administrative divisions of Beijing and Chongqing. As someone pointed out, it's not super likely these boundaries would exist in my TL but it's easier than trying to map contemporary populations onto old boundaries, especially given how it's a lot harder to find consistent data for individual towns and cities than prefectures and counties.
Thanks
 
The 1996 United States Presidential Elections in this post:
1020px-ElectoralCollege1996.svg.png

In a nutshell, the 1996 United States Presidential Election went complete jackass for the main presidential candidates (who coincidentally are also serial killers). Write-in candidates exist, but they did not garner enough traction to derail the election, and while there are 225 faithless electors, Ted Bundy still managed to cling to the White House.

Note: Campbell refers to Caryn Campbell, who IOTL was murdered by Bundy in 1975. TTL she survived, and as of 1996 was a Representative from Colorado (CO-03).
 
That would be incredibly imbalanced when it comes to population. Caithness has a population of 26,000 compared to the millions who live in Greater London, and giving both areas the same representation would be ridiculous, even more so considering those traditional Scottish counties are no longer used as local government units.
This made me curious how it compares with the American Senate.
The imbalance between Greater London and Caithness is a ~336:1 ratio.
The imbalance between California and Wyoming is only a ~65.8:1 ratio.
Yikes. So that's bad, even by American standards.
 
Some a Form of U.K. Senate

View attachment 508888
Shouldn't include Isle of Man.
This made me curious how it compares with the American Senate.
The imbalance between Greater London and Caithness is a ~336:1 ratio.
The imbalance between California and Wyoming is only a ~65.8:1 ratio.
Yikes. So that's bad, even by American standards.
I believe OTL only Brazil and Argentina are more malproportioned than the US.
 
That would be incredibly imbalanced when it comes to population. Caithness has a population of 26,000 compared to the millions who live in Greater London, and giving both areas the same representation would be ridiculous, even more so considering those traditional Scottish counties are no longer used as local government units.
Plus, the two other LibDem seats (Orkney and Shetland) both have about 23,000 seats. I'd expect riots in this world.
 
Plus, the two other LibDem seats (Orkney and Shetland) both have about 23,000 seats. I'd expect riots in this world.
Watch how feel people legit demand that the US Senate be reapportioned. Look how people don't demand PR in the House of Commons. People are literally sheep, lol.
Hopefully not too current politics for me to say that.
 
Shouldn't include Isle of Man.

I believe OTL only Brazil and Argentina are more malproportioned than the US.
That makes sense to me, considering how Brazil's population hugs the coast and that Buenos Aires (the state, not the city) dominates Argentina.
Brazil also has the horrid problem of limiting the seats to between 8 and 70 for its lower chamber.

Watch how feel people legit demand that the US Senate be reapportioned. Look how people don't demand PR in the House of Commons. People are literally sheep, lol.
Hopefully not too current politics for me to say that.
It's not current politics by your own admission- if so few people talk about it then it isn't a mainstream political issue.
It probably would be if we started proposing our own ideas though, which is definitely a Chat thing.
 
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