Alternate Electoral Maps III

Discussion in 'Alternate History Maps and Graphics' started by killertahu22, Jan 28, 2019.

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  1. Charcolt Canvassing for Maverick Case

    Joined:
    Jul 29, 2014
    The initial premise and POD was a different second marriage keeping him in the Democratic camp. I still wanted him in California politics so Nixon successfully defeats Brown in his 1962 gubernatorial bid but (after likely being forced by the party to run again in 1964) is succeeded by Reagan in 1966. Without Nixon or Reagan in Republican politics 75.47% of the vote is up for grabs. Beyond the three Rs (Rocky, Romney, and Rhodes) there's Chuck Percy, a less tarnished Barry Goldwater, and all those favorite sons. As I began with Reagan winning 1976 as an outsider, there's obviously some scandal plagued administration from 1969-1977 or 1973-1977. If I had to give a list, it would be something like this:

    37. 1969-1975: N. A. Rockefeller (R-NY)†
    38. 1975-1977: Claude R. Kirk Jr. (R-FL)
    39. 1977-1985: Ronald W. Reagan (D-CA)
    40. 1985-1989: Lido A. Iacocca (N-MI)
    41. 1989-1993: William J. Clinton (D-AR)

    The idea of Reagan being a Democrat though made me think about a world where all the Republican presidents (or, alternatively, all the nominees) became Democrats instead, and just how both parties could develop with/without those personalities in them. And a vice versa scenario where the Democratic presidents/nominees are Republicans. So if I continue building the scenario I'll do so from that direction and maybe incorporate a Democratic Willkie, Dewey, Eisenhower, Nixon, etc!
     
  2. Erinthecute Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 4, 2018
    Location:
    Australia
    [​IMG]

    Results for the 2019 German federal election. The maps at the top show results by coalition, with the left showing the coalition winning a plurality in each constituency, and the right displaying the full results by coalition. The maps at the bottom show results by party, with the left showing the party winning a plurality in each constituency, and the right displaying the full results by party.
     
  3. Amadeus Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 19, 2017
    Bicentennial Man: The Election of 1976

    Recap: In this universe, JFK is not assassinated and he crushes Barry Goldwater in 1964. Vice-President Lyndon B. Johnson succeeds him in 1969, but he struggles with an increasingly conservative Congress and a deteriorating international situation. In 1972 Ronald Reagan narrowly beats him - and hopes to usher in his conservative vision for the United States.

    On January 20, 1973 Ronald Wilson Reagan is inaugurated as America's 37th President. Immediately his administration is beset with problems: the stock market crashes and inflation skyrockets as unemployment soars - combining to create the worst economy since the Great Depression. While Reagan works with Republicans and conservative Democrats to balance the budget and reduce the national debt*, he does little to alleviate the problems of the average American and his approval ratings plummet to 38% in November 1974. That same month Democrats retake both Houses of Congress and Reagan is predicted to be a one term President.

    But Reagan defies expectations and compromises with liberal Democrats to stimulate the economy by increasing spending on the military and Social Security in exchange for limited demand-side tax cuts. Throughout 1975 the economy begins to improve and national morale steadily climbs in anticipation of the American Bicentennial. Former President John F. Kennedy, now retired in Hyannis, Massachusetts, sends Reagan a warm letter of congratulations. Still, many Americans are opposed to Reagan's reactionary policies on welfare, busing, and education. With former Vice-President Hubert Humphrey out of the race due to ill health, and with Senator Robert F. Kennedy of New York focusing on his re-election campaign, organized labor turns to Senator Henry M. Jackson of Washington - who ultimately emerges as the Democratic presidential nominee after a bruising primary. Jackson taps Georgia Governor Jimmy Carter as his running mate and the two wage an aggressive battle against President Reagan. Reagan boasts of an improving economy and American prestige abroad, while Jackson hammers Reagan on stagflation, unemployment, and his unpopular domestic policies. In the Presidential debates, Reagan deflects Jackson's attacks and portrays himself as a charming statesman committed to the well-being of all Americans. Despite Jackson's best efforts, Reagan is re-elected by a respectable margin:

    Reagan 1976.png


    Ronald Reagan (R-CA): 324 Electoral Votes, 51% of the popular vote
    Henry M. Jackson (D-WA): 214 Electoral Votes, 47.1% of the popular vote
     
  4. Amadeus Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 19, 2017
    *In this ATL, Reagan is elected President before he encounters supply-side economics - meaning his administration follows a more orthodox conservative approach of balancing the budget. This is something Reagan never seriously tried to do in the 1980s.
     
  5. Col. Angus Mem8er

    Joined:
    May 15, 2012
    Just messing around with some old elections, here's a 2004 House election with a 10% swing towards the Democrats. Interestingly, despite a margin of 7.4%, winning the popular vote 51.8% to 44.4%, the Democrats only have a net gain of 10 seats, with the Republicans holding a 219-216 majority

    2004 D + 10, D. 51.8 R. 44.4 (216-219).png

    The popular vote margin is only a little bit less than the 8% margin the Dems won 2006 by, but they do rather worse in terms of seats

    Though this kind of shows an issue with applying a uniform national swing when it comes to map making - in a situation where the Dems were actually up by 7% rather than down by 3%, they would likely be able to expand the map, and become more competitive in districts they otherwise wouldn't make much effort in or even run a candidate in the first place, making the map realistically look less like this and more like 2006. On the other hand, uniform national swings are just easier than thinking things through more

    And then there's the Senate map, with the Dems winning 7 more seats than they won OTL, managing to turn a 4 seat loss into a 3 seat gain and narrowly taking the Senate with a 52-48 seat majority

    2004 senate D+3 (D. 52-R.48).png
    I wonder what Kerry would manage to get done, after a blowout win for the Presidency and taking back the Senate, but failing to take the House despite a sizable popular vote win. It might just end up like the Obama years after 2010, with the House blocking legislation of any substance
     
  6. Turquoise Blue Floraison Tibby!

    Joined:
    Sep 5, 2010
    Location:
    Europe
    The Seventh Party System: Part LXIV
    Map of the United States
    Part I - Metropotamia
    Part II - Alta California
    Part III - North Carolina
    Part IV - New Jersey
    Part V - Adams
    Part VI - Alabama
    Part VII - Rhode Island
    Part VIII - Sequoyah
    Part IX - Assenisipia
    Part X - East Florida
    Part XI - Tennessee
    Part XII - Kansas
    Part XIII - Dakota
    Part XIV - Arizona
    Part XV - Delaware
    Part XVI - Oregon
    Part XVII - Ozark
    Part XVIII - New Hampshire
    Part XIX - Western Connecticut
    Part XX - New York
    Part XXI - Santo Domingo
    Part XXII - South Carolina
    Part XXIII - Baja California
    Part XXIV - Chersonesus
    Part XXV - Canal Zone Territory
    Part XXVI - West Florida
    Part XXVII - Missouri
    Part XXVIII - Colorado
    Part XXIX - Trinidad and Tobago
    Part XXX - Pennsylvania
    Part XXXI - Wisconsin
    Part XXXII - Lincoln
    Part XXXIII - Deseret
    Part XXXIV - Platte
    Part XXXV - Kiribati
    Part XXXVI - New Mexico
    Part XXXVII - Maine
    Part XXXVIII - Alaska
    Part XXXIX - Hamilton
    Part XXXX - Mississippi
    Part XXXXI - North Virginia
    Part XXXXII - Bioko
    Part XXXXIII - Hawaii
    Part XXXXIV - Louisiana
    Part XXXXV - Seward
    Part XXXXVI - Illinoia
    Part XXXXVII - Georgia
    Part XXXXVIII - Columbia
    Part XXXXIX - Maryland
    Part L - Texas
    Part LI - District of Columbia
    Part LII - Vermont
    Part LIII - Yazoo
    Part LIV - Jefferson
    Part LV - Virgin Islands
    Part LVI - Washington
    Part LVII - Puerto Rico
    Part LVIII - Kentucky
    Part LIX - Massachusetts
    Part LX - South Virginia
    Part LXI - Arkansas
    Part LXII - Saratoga
    Part LXIII - Connecticut


    Labor Coalition
    Republicans
    Democrats and Social Credit
    Hispanos Unidos and Allies

    Political Positions of State Governments

    ====

    Original DeviantArt Post Here

    The state of Nickajack, similar to Lincoln and North Virginia, is a pro-unionist state created due to the American Civil War. As a result, the Democratic party has often struggled to gain much support in this state, even centuries after the civil war has ended, resulting in the party system being mainly a two horse race between Labor on the left and the Republicans on the right.

    A strong Republican stronghold prior to the First Great Depression, the collapse of the stock market in 1929 would turn the political tides of the state, as people began to swing more towards Labor. The hallmark Tennessee Valley Authority, while centered around the state of Tennessee, also covered Nickajack and showed the people of this state, especially those in isolated rural regions, the power of government run programs. As such, the state would switch to become a solid Labor stronghold throughout the 1930s and 40s.

    However, things began to go downhill in the 1950s when competition from the newly rebuilt European industries began to compete with Knoxville's textile industry. The construction of massive highways in the 1950s also decreased the importance of America's railroads, and with Nickajack being a hub for Southern railroads their economy took yet another hit. By the early 1970s the economy of Nickajack was in free fall, and with Wade v Roe legalizing abortion in this 1971 court case with the help of LBJ's Justices the state turned widely against Labor. Thus in 1972 Republicans once again seized control of Nickajack's state legislature, pledging to revitalize the state's declining economy by giving tax cuts to corporations while slashing labor regulations that protected unions.

    With access to cheap power from the TVA and cheap tax levies offered by the GOP once again industry in Nickajack was booming leading to a thriving middle class especially in the state's suburban areas. With a new dichotomy between the poorer rural regions and the richer suburban cores Nickajack became a vital swing state throughout the subsequent decades. Like many other states, Labor was able to come to power here following their 2010 wave year, and stayed in power for the next couple of elections. But in 2016 the Democrats managed to steal enough Labor voters to give the Republicans a plurality, and thus a Republican Democratic coalition was able to overturn the previous Labor government. In 2018, the Nickajack Democrats have collapsed again back towards their normal level of support, however the Republicans are now the ones gaining massively, allowing them to seize a majority all by themselves in the Senate for the first time since 2008.

    Having a majority in the Senate the Republicans were thus able to ditch their moderate Democratic partners and opt instead for Constitution to join their government. And while this technically leaves them five votes short of a majority in the House with the GOP firmly controlling the Senate it is enough to protect the government from a vote of no confidence and enables them to pass their pension reform plan by working with the most right wing of Democrats, bypassing the Longite majority.

    Government:
    Republicans - The party of big business, they are dominated by the Buckley faction of the GOP which pushes for both social conservatism and economic conservatism. By attracting young conservative minded folks from the more liberal Northern and Western states with low income and property taxes they have built a large base of supporters in the suburbs of many Nickajack cities.
    Constitution - A growing force in the state of Nickajack, they are the party of the Christian right and have been able to rise in popularity to the detriment of the Democrats, allowing for more right wing economic proposals to be passed.

    Opposition:
    Labor - The second largest party in Nickajack, they remain a strong force among many of the state's poor rural voters who rely on the TVA for jobs, as well as the state's black population in cities like Chattanooga. However they are much more socially conservative than many branches of Labor, and have lost many urban voters to the more socially liberal Greens.
    Democrats - The party of the South, their connection to the legacy of the Confederacy has prevented them from becoming a major force in the state, preventing them from gaining much support outside of the culturally southern Chattanooga suburbs.
    Greens - The only socially liberal party in the entire state, they find most of their support in the two college towns of Asheville and Boone.

    [​IMG]

    Credit for the base map goes to Chicxulub.
    Update produced by MoralisticCommunist and posted here with permission
     
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  7. Tex Arkana Goodbye Sadness

    Joined:
    Jan 29, 2017
    Location:
    Hell
    I finally got around to combining the best GOP result in every county in each Presidential election from 1920-1928 into one map. I don't think any states that didn't go Democratic in any of those three elections would flip here... Alabama was the closest but since Hoover (obviously) did better than Harding or Coolidge in every county the result is unchanged. it's worth noting that not a single state outside of the South is competitive here, and in fact the Republicans sweep every county in a staggering 28 states. what do y'all think the popular vote would look like here?

    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited: Sep 24, 2019
  8. wildviper121 Bartlet for America!

    Joined:
    Jan 27, 2014
  9. Morraw ME

    Joined:
    Nov 17, 2014
    Location:
    Perth, New Holland
    And here's an electoral map for a South Africa which maintained the United Party post-1948; the bars showing a breakdown of the seats won in each province. You can see the infobox and some surrounding information for this alt-1968 general election here.

    saf.png
     
  10. Calthrina950 Well-Known Member

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    Sep 14, 2017
    Location:
    Colorado Springs, Colorado
    Excellent map! I'm assuming that the PV would be around 65-35, or something similar. Obviously, Republicans win every state except for Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and South Carolina. What would the state by state map look like?
     
  11. Tex Arkana Goodbye Sadness

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    Jan 29, 2017
    Location:
    Hell
    [​IMG]
     
  12. Tex Arkana Goodbye Sadness

    Joined:
    Jan 29, 2017
    Location:
    Hell
    1920 with the popular vote inversed:

    [​IMG]

    James Cox (D-OH)/Franklin Roosevelt (D-NY) 60.36% popular vote, 509 electoral votes
    Warren Harding (R-OH)/Calvin Coolidge (R-MA) 34.11% popular vote, 22 electoral votes

    Mississippi, Louisiana, Georgia, and South Carolina are all over or near 100% for Cox, and notably Cox only loses Vermont by .09% and wins Maine decisively. Harding wins Wisconsin, Vermont, and North Dakota, but only receives a majority of the vote in North Dakota. I'd like to make a county map for this so if anyone has an editable version of the Wikipedia county map for 1920 I'd appreciate it.
     
  13. RoxyLikeAPuma Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 21, 2019
    2018 Dixie Presidential Election County Map

    Unionist Candidate Louisiana Governor Mitch Landrieu (Purple) 52.6%

    National Candidate Florida Senator Marco Rubio (Yellow) 47.4%

    [​IMG]
     
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  14. Erinthecute Well-Known Member

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    Australia
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  15. EYates Well-Known Member

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    Jul 24, 2019
  16. Erinthecute Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 4, 2018
    Location:
    Australia
    I trace the borders from a basemap in Inkscape, make them the right thickness, use the fill tool to fill them, then make the borders invisible. I put in an appropriate amount of circles using the circle tool and fill them with the appropriate colours, then duplicate the fills and colour them appropriately for the plurality map.
     
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  17. EYates Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2019

    Thank you
     
  18. prime-minister Commander of High Authoritah

    Joined:
    Apr 27, 2015
    Location:
    Cambridge
    1996

    Despite having run a fairly centrist campaign, Richards quickly started taking on highly contentious issues in her policy agenda. In order to settle the NAFTA struggle, she simply decided to allow the House and Senate to vote on whether the agreement should be ratified; both legislative branches voted in favour of it, and so it was signed, much to the consternation of figures like Perot and Brown. Despite calls for a national proposition on membership, Richards steadfastly refused, famously declaring 'We already decided'. This attracted considerable derision from conservatives, as did her increased funding for Medicare.

    What really hit the Democrats hard more generally, though, was the Whitewater scandal. After Richards picked Arkansas Governor Bill Clinton to serve as Secretary of the Treasury, it emerged that he and his wife Hilary had not only invested into the Whitewater Development Corporation in their home state, but that Bill had allegedly pressured an Arkansas municipal judge, David Hale, to provide a $300,000 loan to his corporation partner, Susan McDougall. While the Clintons were not convicted for any of this, the public perception that many state Democrats were corrupt hurt many of them going into the 1994 midterms. Consequently, the party lost its majorities in both Houses, and Dennis Hastert, the new Speaker of the House, declared in an eager address that he was 'looking forward to holding big government to account'.

    Ironically, as 1995 progressed things turned much more difficult for the Republicans. The steadily improving economy, combined with the firing of contentious figures like Clinton, the greater number of Republican lawmakers shifting the blame towards that party and the fact that Richards was broadly popular with rank-and-file Democrats improved her approval ratings considerably, and Hastert was damaged by his role in the government shutdown of late 1995, which many voters blamed on his leadership. As a consequence, he surprised and disappointed many Republicans by declaring he would not be running for President the following year.

    The figure who ended up dominating the Republican primaries in his absence was another right-wing Republican, namely Governor Pete Wilson of Calfornia, whose hardline anti-immigration stance and fiscal conservatism had made him popular with the rank and file of the GOP, allowing him to beat former Illinois Congressman Lynn Martin and Tennessee Governor Lamar Alexander, his more centrist challengers. Wilson picked Steve Forbes, a newspaper and magazine publisher from New York who had also run for the Republican nomination, to serve as his running mate.

    Almost immediately after he became the presumptive nominee, however, Wilson came under fire. Former President Kean declared that he 'could not, in good conscience, vote for a man who threw his party to the wind 4 years ago', with Alan Simpson publicly agreeing. On top of this, the Republicans' credibility as opponents of corruption and big spending was hurt by their nominee's running mate basically using his huge personal funds to 'spend his way to victory', and Wilson hurt his party's stakes with minority voters due to his adamant support for Proposition 187. Richards was quick to bring up his administration's alacrity to 'unconstitutional crackdowns' on minorities during the Presidential debates, which many felt she outperformed Wilson in significantly.

    Despite his efforts to caricature Richards as a 'Texas liberal', it was clear by election day that Wilson had his work cut out.



    [​IMG]

    Richards/Kerry (Democratic): 435 EVs, 54.0%
    Wilson/Forbes (Republican): 103 EVs, 44.8%

    The result was even more of a blowout than most voters had anticipated, especially given how tumultuous the previous 4 years had been. Apart from Indiana, New Jersey and Virginia, the only states Wilson won had fewer than 10 electoral votes; he could not even win his home state of California, which Richards took by a small plurality. Richards' victory came with some coattails for the Democrats, too, as they massively cut the Republican majority in the House and slightly reduced their Senate majority. Most significantly of all, though, it was hard for the Republicans to claim they still had a mandate for their small government approach after a result like this, and liberal Democrats were eager to put the boot in.

    This would not turn out to go so smoothly as they hoped.
     
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  19. Tex Arkana Goodbye Sadness

    Joined:
    Jan 29, 2017
    Location:
    Hell
    I finished the county map. the quality is slightly rougher than usual because I used a resized version of the Wikipedia map because I wanted to use the actual 1920 county boundaries rather than newer ones, but I think it still looks pretty good. here's some fun facts about this hypothetical Cox-slide:

    - Cox wins the highest percentage of the vote for any Democratic nominee in history in the following states: Virginia, Georgia, North Carolina, Indiana, Missouri, New Mexico, West Virginia, Delaware, Florida, South Carolina, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, and Maryland. notably in South Carolina and Mississippi, Cox is so popular that he manages to get well over 100% of the vote.
    - Cox wins every county in 22 states, and loses only a single county in a further 8 states.
    - Cox wins several counties that haven't gone Democratic in any Presidential election to this day, including Riley, KS; Garret, Maryland, and Putnam, Missouri
    - Harding wins fewer counties than Herbert Hoover did in 1932, and outside of his apparent base of support in the Great Lakes region, he wins a truly negligible number of counties.

    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited: Oct 3, 2019
  20. Adam The Nerd A weird nerd

    Joined:
    Jan 3, 2018
    If you make a map where a candidate gets over 100% of the vote in certain counties, at least make a special colour for the over 100% counties
     
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