Alternate Electoral Maps III

Discussion in 'Alternate History Maps and Graphics' started by killertahu22, Jan 28, 2019.

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  1. X_X Well-Known Member

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    The 2012 Russian Presidential Election saw a matchup between Ivan Petrov of the Liberal Democratic Party and independent Yuri Pavlov. Running upon a platform of far-right fascist populism and ethnic nationalism, Petrov shunned doubters who thought he was too extreme. Though some international observers questioned how much of Petrov’s talk of irredentism was simply mendacity, merely talk to get elected.

    The world would know soon enough following the invasion of Finland in 2013…


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    Last edited: Jun 25, 2019
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  2. Calthrina950 Well-Known Member

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    What accounts for the very strong Republican numbers in the Black Belt?
     
  3. Tex Arkana Spice for President!

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    Thad Cochran did quite a bit better in those counties than Dantin, so when you combine Evers and Cochran, he would win those counties overwhelmingly.
     
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  4. Calthrina950 Well-Known Member

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    I see. If I am not mistaken, didn't Cochran always receive a higher amount of the black vote than what Republicans usually garner in Mississippi? I think that even in his last election in 2014, he won several Black Belt counties that no other Republican these days normally can win.
     
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  5. Tex Arkana Spice for President!

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    I'd like to see some actual data, but this would seem to be the case based on county results from his various elections.
     
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  6. Calthrina950 Well-Known Member

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    I wonder why. It's especially interesting to me because Cochran's predecessor was the notorious segregationist James Eastland.
     
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  7. MorganKingsley Well-Known Member

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    After nearly three years of debate, on July 6 1923, Warren Harding put his foot down on the matter of apportionment for the states in the 1924 election, only about a year away. He told people that if the states did not go by the normal seat increase of the last several decades, he would campaign in the south, which was his way of saying he would throw the 1924 election, which scared republicans into caving in and agreeing to the terms of the current seat changes. In the next several months, states appointed the would have been 483 seats to the nation, with 220K people per district on average. It would later not matter what Harding's threats were, as he would end up dead in August 1923, with Calvin Coolidge taking the oath of office. Many would consider this act to be Harding's only good act as president, as many people have done analysis on what the elections would have been like in the future if the electoral college stayed at 435...

    In November 1923, Calvin Coolidge announced he would indeed be running for re-election, thinking that he will do a good job keeping the country together in the next four years. At the same time, 68-year-old Rob LaFollette decided he would run as a third party candidate, under the progressive party title just like Roosevelt 12 years prior. He picked a democrat as his running mate, Burton Wheeler from Montana to help him grant those 4 electoral votes, which if he had won that and Wisconsin, could give him at least 18 total. Controversy rose when people pointed out that if elected, he would be the oldest president ever elected and the first to serve into his seventies, but he countered saying that he was in great condition despite some fears.

    The progressive party and republican party had easy conventions, but the democrat convention was a bit of a hectic one. One so hectic that it caused dozens of democrats to leave and join the LaFollette movement which was gaining traction, but eventually John Davis was named a compromise candidate. Despite the fact that there was no real doubt that Coolidge would win on the public eye, it was something that Coolidge feared would not happen due to how LaFollette was running his campaign, gathering up people in large crowds of people from all over the country, he felt like LaFollette would throw the election to the house, and win the election that way.

    The election was going along as most would expect. With Coolidge polling ahead in the north east by landslide margins, Davis leading in the Confederacy by insurmountable margins, and LaFollette giving Coolidge a good run in the west, with Wisconsin virtually locked in for him. Most of the swing states had been considered states like Minnesota and California for LaFollete v Coolidge, and the border states and southern esque states for Coolidge v Davis. In the end, the election outcome was expected mostly, and while it was closer than Coolidge wanted, it was still enough to show him a definite victory

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    Calvin Coolidge - 325 electoral votes (56.2 percent) / 44.04 percent popular vote
    John Davis - 205 electoral votes (35.5 percent) / 33.82 percent popular vote
    Rob LaFollette - 48 electoral votes (8.3 percent) / 21.61 percent popular vote

    The 1924 election was a very important election on the whole. Not only did it show how the south was officially titanium democrat even in the event of a landslide, but it also contained at the time, the second most successful third party run ever in both electoral and popular vote. LaFollette only won half the electoral percentage of Roosevelt, and about 3/4 of his popular support, but LaFollette actually won more states than Roosevelt, with seven, making him at the time the most successful third party candidate ever in terms of physical states won. Also a interesting fact about this election was how few states were won with less than 40 percent. As compared to 1912 where nearly every state outside the south was, only a few Coolidge states were won with less than 40 percent. Every single LaFollette state was won with more than 40, and every single Davis state was as well. This showed truly how united behind a candidate most states were, in that most states were clearly for one candidate.

    A flip of Washington, Indiana, Nebraska, Utah and Wyoming, would have made the election go to the house of representatives as Coolidge would have 287, 3 less than needed. The final result would have been 287 Coolidge, 232 Davis, and 59 LaFollette, with the popular vote being 39.04 Coolidge, 36.32 Davis, and 24.11 LaFollette. And to cap it off, this also ended up being one of the diversively decisive county and district elections in the history of the country, where each area was mostly dominated by one party or another. It is due to the closeness of the electoral vote that Coolidge and LaFollette and Davis waited until November 7th to each give their speeches.

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    That is part one of the more explained and comprehensive version of the maps. I will post a more detailed 1928, and then after that, I will do 1932 and beyond
     
  8. Tex Arkana Spice for President!

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    Cochran's best performance with black voters (excluding 2002, where he only faced a Reform Party challenger and won overall with 85% of the vote), would seem to be 1996, with CNN Exit Polls showing him winning 31% of the black vote. normally I'd think the exit poll was off if it showed such a result, but the county map aligns well with that, with Cochran even very narrowly winning 85.7% black Jefferson County:

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  9. Tex Arkana Spice for President!

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    This is 1976 if the statewide margins were those of 1964. you can see the obvious differences between Carter and LBJ's coalitions, with Carter winning more counties overall than LBJ did, this is especially noticeable in the Upper South and Plains states. of course if this had actually happened, it would have made zero sense. Carter loses his home state of Georgia by about 8.5% while winning Ford's home state of Michigan by a blowout 33% margin, and even winning two counties there that went for Goldwater in OTL 1964. Carter wins every county in 11 states while Ford (obviously) wins every county in Mississippi. in a further 7 states, Carter only loses a single county.

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  10. Calthrina950 Well-Known Member

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    Would you happen to have a blank template modern-day version of this map that I could edit?
     
  11. AltHispano It's worth dreaming / Vale la pena soñar

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  12. MorganKingsley Well-Known Member

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    Fun fact, even if thurmond won literally every single vote in the south, he still gets a lower popular vote percent than Wallace in 1968. So spoilers I guess on that if they run in my universe, Wallace still beats thurmond at least in the popular vote
     
  13. Calthrina950 Well-Known Member

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  14. Helen Has no idea what she is doing

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  15. MorganKingsley Well-Known Member

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    In fact, I did the math, and even if Wallace got a literal bare majority (50.1 or higher) in all 11 Confederate states, he would still have roughly the same popular vote percentage, even without extra majority in some states, and his votes in other states, as Thurmond would have if he gotten every single vote of the Confederacy, so there is virtually no way you could have Wallace do worse than Thurmond at least in the popular vote
     
  16. Calthrina950 Well-Known Member

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  17. wolfhound817 Priest of Hank

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    Walking on Sunshine.png
    Saddler supposed to have 48.2 not 40.2
     
  18. Tex Arkana Spice for President!

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    There you go.
     
  19. Calthrina950 Well-Known Member

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    Would you happen to also have the color codes that you used as well?
     
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  20. gap80 gap80

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    Three Unrelated Election Scenarios

    1968

    According to LA Governor McKeithen's Wikipedia article, “In the spring of 1968 McKeithen was approached by Representative Hale Boggs and Vice President Hubert H. Humphrey with an offer to become Humphrey’s running mate…McKeithen seriously considered the offer…In the summer of 1968, McKeithen’s life was threatened after he began an investigation into labor-management racketeering. One man admitted to having received $5,000 to kill the governor. McKeithen’s security was enlarged and no further threats were reported.”

    Here, Humphrey picks McKeithen, only for McKeithen to get shot and killed in September. Humphrey, controversially, quickly replaces him with LBJ ally Richard J. Hughes of New Jersey, but Humphrey wins via sympathy voters in parts of the South:

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    Humphrey/Hughes – 288
    Nixon/Agnew – 221
    Wallace/LeMay – 29



    1964

    After losing the GOP nomination to Barry Goldwater, Nelson Rockefeller decides to run as an independent, a move that convinces George Wallace to jump ship as well to run on a pro-States’ Rights platform. Johnson focuses more on Wallace and Rockefeller than on Goldwater:

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    Lyndon Johnson/Hubert Humphrey (Blue) – 430
    Nelson Rockefeller/Fred Seaton (Green) – 56
    George Wallace/Marvin Griffin (Yellow) – 47
    Barry Goldwater/William Miller (Red) – 5



    1908

    If the scandal described here: ( https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/wi-alice-roosevelt-marries-an-african-american.468947/ ) occurred before the 1908 election, I imagine the Democratic field would be wider due to the better odds of winning in November, but William Jennings Bryan would still be the frontrunner and ultimately the nominee. Republicans, meanwhile, would do their best to distance themselves from the Roosevelt administration, possibly leading to them choosing a more conservative nominee such as Joseph B. Foraker, who had a falling-out with TR during his second term IOTL. Nevertheless, the “scandal” would likely damage the GOP just enough for Bryan to win:

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    Fmr Rep. William Jennings Bryan (NE)/State Sen. John Worth Kern (IN) – 301
    Sen. Joseph B. Foraker (OH)/Rep. William P. Hepburn (IA) – 182
     
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