Alternate Electoral Maps II

Discussion in 'Alternate History Maps and Graphics' started by Quaid-e-Azam, May 22, 2017.

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  1. Pericles Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 20, 2013
    Alternate 2016-Democrat win
    2016 presidential election
    [​IMG]

    Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine-Democratic: 334 EV 50.02%
    Donald Trump/Mike Pence-Republican: 204 EV 43.93%

    2016 Senate elections
    Harry Reid-Democratic: 49+5 55.8%
    Mitch McConnell-Republican: 49-5 40.4%
    Independent: 2_
    100 seats
    51 for majority
    upload_2017-10-10_15-9-46.png
    2016 House elections

    Paul Ryan-Republican: 236-11 47.1%
    Nancy Pelosi-Democratic: 199+11 50.0%
    435 seats
    218 for majority
    upload_2017-10-10_15-32-34.png
    2016 gubernatorial elections
    Susana Martinez-Republican: 31_ 47.50%
    Dan Malloy-Democratic: 18_ 49.46%
    upload_2017-10-10_15-16-22.png
     
  2. Calthrina950 Well-Known Member

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    Sep 14, 2017
    And here is the updated map. I also added counties in Texas and North Dakota to the Democratic total, using Bill Clinton's 1996 map and a Democratic gubernatorial map from the 80s as references, besides adding a county in Nebraska to make it somewhat closer to how it looked in 1964. Counties were also added in Ohio and Virginia. By my new calculation, Rutherford has a final, grand total of 2,194 counties to Trump's 919.

     
    Last edited: Oct 10, 2017
  3. Camelopardalim Ministre-President de la Syldavie

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    On The Turrbal Lands
    If the states voted purely based on their average median household purchasing power (data from here)
    Democratic (below avg. median household purchasing power) - 267 EVs
    strongest states - Hawaii, New York, Maine
    Republican (above avg. MHPP) - 271 EVs
    strongest states - Minnesota, Utah, Iowa
    closest states - Massachussets, Oregon, Idaho, Georgia, Delaware

    [​IMG]
     
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  4. Tex Arkana Rockefeller Republican

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    This is a very aesthetically pleasing map.
     
  5. Tex Arkana Rockefeller Republican

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    2008 if the results were a uniform national swing from 2004. Obama wins Arkansas and Missouri but loses Indiana and North Carolina compared to OTL, otherwise the state results are the same. the really interesting differences are at the county level, with Obama doing much better in Appalachia and most of the South but worse most everywhere else.

    [​IMG]
     
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  6. Calthrina950 Well-Known Member

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    A revised version of the Rutherford Counties map, taking into account the adjustments made above. Rutherford wins 2,194 counties (70.47%) to Trump's 919 (29.53%). This is far better than 2016, when Trump won 2,626 counties (84.35%) to Clinton's 487 (15.65%). In this scenario, Rutherford wins all of Clinton's counties, and 1,707 of Trump's:

     
    Last edited: Oct 12, 2017
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  7. Tex Arkana Rockefeller Republican

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    Jimmy Carter holds on in 1980, but Reagan probably wins the popular vote.


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  8. Keeganc2020 Well-Known Member

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    May 10, 2017
    Carter wins 271 to 267 I feel like if he still barely loses the popular vote a la 2000 they'll abolish the EC by at lest the 1990's.
     
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  9. Tex Arkana Rockefeller Republican

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    In 1980 numbers, Carter wins the Electoral College 284-254. Still, this is a very weak victory for an incumbent President and he probably loses the popular vote by more than 1%. I also don't think he comes all that close to winning a majority of counties, in spite of his (relatively) great appeal in the rural South.
     
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  10. Tex Arkana Rockefeller Republican

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    Really dumb re-alignment that I thought of, yellow represents swing states. Can you guess what the reasoning behind this map is?


    [​IMG]
     
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  11. Thomas Johnson Well-Known Member

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    Hispanics, Indians, and Asians swing massively democratic, while Non college educated whites swing republican.
     
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  12. Tex Arkana Rockefeller Republican

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    Not quite.
     
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  13. Zachary VIII Russian bot

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    Hispanics swing and lower class whites swing Democrat, Blacks and upper class Whites swing Republican?
     
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  14. Tex Arkana Rockefeller Republican

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    Off again.
     
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  15. killertahu22 Communism and Social Justice

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    Cali would be a swing state in this scenario
     
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  16. DPKdebator Hmm...

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    Republicans become a party with two main factions, the populists (Appalachia) and the moderates (northeast). Democrats maybe go progressive? (might also have a moderate/Blue Dog wing)

    Hispanics are a solid D block (judging by the southwest's lean). Blacks vote slightly less Democratic (judging by Maryland). Asians are probably lean/likely D. Whites in the Plains vote less Republican but northeastern whites vote more Republican.
     
  17. C2sg AH enthusiast from Singapore

    Joined:
    Oct 11, 2017
    1964 wikibox.png 1964.png
    (inspired by hcallega's 'The Presidency of John F Kennedy')

    John F. Kennedy (Democratic)

    35th President of the United States

    January 20, 1961 – January 20, 1969

    …following the near-death experience that he escaped in Dallas, Texas on November 22, 1963, President Kennedy set out to define his legacy, placing a civil rights bill and War on Poverty on his New Frontier agenda.

    As election year 1964 began, Vice President Lyndon Johnson was forced to resign in January amidst a Senate investigation into his financial dealings as Senator in the 1950s, a dramatic fall from grace despite his reputation as formerly one of the most powerful men in the country as Senate Majority Leader.

    Kennedy's goal of a tax cut in exchange for promising a budget not to exceed $100 billion in 1965 was met, and Revenue Act of 1964 emerged from Congress and was signed on February 26, 1964.

    Efforts to pass a civil rights bill in Congress in July 1964 failed narrowly to a filibuster despite heavy congressional efforts led by Democratic Senate leaders Mike Mansfield, Hubert Humphrey and the Republican leader, Everett Dirksen to pass the bill. This gave President Kennedy much momentum from civil rights leaders including Martin Luther King, Jr, convincing them that civil rights would have a better chance of success in his second term as opposed to his Republican rival in the general election, conservative Senator Barry Goldwater.

    After Kennedy decisively defeated Alabama segregationist Governor George Wallace in the Democratic primaries, Kennedy selected outgoing North Carolina Governor Terry Sanford as his running mate at the Democratic Convention.

    Despite private fears within the Kennedy campaign that Goldwater would have an opening to beat the President with an appeal to white working class voters in the North and seeing little chance of holding the Southern Democratic base over “states rights”, events in October took place. The ousting of Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev by Leonid Brezhnev, China's first ever atomic bomb test, gave the Kennedy campaign new momentum, arguing that Goldwater was too volatile and extreme to be President amidst an unstable world.

    On November 3, 1964, John F. Kennedy, presiding over a booming economy and widely considered to have a successful foreign policy was re-elected in a 36-state landslide and 407 electoral votes.

    President John F Kennedy/Gov. Terry Sanford (Democratic)- 56.1%, 407 electoral votes
    Sen. Barry Goldwater/Sen. Thruston B Morton (Republican)- 43.5%, 131 electoral votes


    However, the Democrats lost Senate seats in:

    California (George Murphy defeated Alan Cranston, 53.3%-46.7%),

    Nevada (Paul Laxalt defeated Howard Cannon, 53.8-46.2),

    Ohio (Robert A Taft Jr defeated Stephen Young, 54.8-45.2) [1],

    Oklahoma (Bud Wilkinson defeated Fred Harris, 56-44),

    Wisconsin (Wilbur Renk defeated William Proxmire, 50.4-49.5) [2]

    Tennessee (special election, Class 2: Howard Baker defeated Ross Bass, 50.7-48.8)

    and Wyoming (John Wold defeated Gale McGee, 50.6-49.4)

    Democrat gains:

    Maryland (Joseph Tydings defeated James Glenn Beall)

    New Mexico (Joseph Montoya defeated Edwin Mechem)

    Other Senate races of note:

    New York (R hold):

    Kenneth Keating (R) – 48.5%

    Samuel Stratton (D) – 48.4%

    Tennessee (D hold):

    Albert Gore (D) – 50.3%

    Dan Kuykendall (R) – 49.7%

    Texas (D hold):

    Ralph Yarborough (D) – 51.8%

    George Herbert Walker Bush (R) – 48.2%

    (Yarborough attacked Bush as a carpetbagger and a conservative to the right of Goldwater)


    89th United States Congress (1965-1967)

    US Senate:

    Democratic Party – 61 (-3)

    Republican Party – 39 (+3)

    US House of Representatives:

    Democratic Party – 263 (+5)

    Republican Party – 172 (-5)

    Notes
    1. John Glenn does not fall in the bathtub and campaigns for the Ohio Democratic Senate nomination, only to be defeated by Senator Young in an upset. Robert A Taft enters the Senate six years early.
    2. Without the coattails of Johnson in OTL 1964, Wisconsin Republican candidate Wilbur Renk campaigned as a moderate and distanced himself from Goldwater. He successfully defeated William Proxmire but Proxmire would defeat him in a rematch in 1970.
     
    Last edited: Oct 12, 2017
  18. Tex Arkana Rockefeller Republican

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    Basically this. I imagined that this scenario might be possible under a future depolarized political landscape.
     
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  19. Tex Arkana Rockefeller Republican

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    Jimmy Carter would have only needed to get 2% more of the Popular Vote to win in a 431-107 Electoral College blowout




    [​IMG]



    Jimmy Carter (D-GA)/Walter Mondale (D-MN) 51.1% Popular Vote ~ 431 Electoral Votes
    Gerald Ford (R-MI)/Bob Dole (R-KS) 47% Popular Vote ~ 107 Electoral Votes
     
  20. DPKdebator Hmm...

    Joined:
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    Location:
    Massachusetts
    I can see this being a close election:
    [​IMG]
     
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