Alternate Electoral Maps II

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My not particularly serious alternate realignment, which was based on coming up with party names which would usually be thought of as oxymoronic in the American political context. This shows the 2012 election, between Joe Biden (Progressive Nationalist), Mitt Romney (Liberal Conservative), and Rick Santorum (Evangelical Socialist)

I'm thinking that the Progressive Nationalists are a (mostly) socially liberal, protectionist party, focussed on the Rust Belt and the East Coast, mostly - the Liberal Conservatives are center/center-right, federalist, and relatively internationalist, while the Evangelical Socialists are socially conservatives in favor of a big welfare state, especially for whites. I made two maps - one showing the 2012 election, split almost exactly 3 ways by EV, and the map with swing states left out.

I figure that CA/NY/CT/RI are swing PN/LC, TX/FL/KS are swing LC/ES, IN is swing PN/ES, and IA/VA are three-way swing.
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This would be accurate if Romney and Sontorum had an agreement not to run in certain states (in which the other one had better chances). Otherwise, Biden would have won thanks to the conservative split.

Oh, and Romney wouldn't win in all New England states. Massachusetts and Vermont would probably be blue.
 
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Now, I have a tricky one. Can you guess the candidates? R=blue; D=red; I=green
mistery.png
 
The Boot's On The Other Foot

The same polling as the 25th April that put the Tories 25 points ahead but with Tories and Labour flipped.

Labour: 439 seats (+177)
Conservative: 141 seats (-177)
Liberal Democrat: 26 seats (+14)
Scottish National Party: 23 seats (-12)
Plaid Cymru: 2 seats (-2)
Green: 1 seat (=)
Northern Ireland: 18 seats (=)

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The Boot's On The Other Foot

The same polling as the 25th April that put the Tories 25 points ahead but with Tories and Labour flipped.

Labour: 439 seats (+177)
Conservative: 141 seats (-177)
Liberal Democrat: 26 seats (+14)
Scottish National Party: 23 seats (-12)
Plaid Cymru: 2 seats (-2)
Green: 1 seat (=)
Northern Ireland: 18 seats (=)

View attachment 348122
BoJo, Villiers, Mundall, Crabb all lose. Wow.
 
My not particularly serious alternate realignment, which was based on coming up with party names which would usually be thought of as oxymoronic in the American political context. This shows the 2012 election, between Joe Biden (Progressive Nationalist), Mitt Romney (Liberal Conservative), and Rick Santorum (Evangelical Socialist)
Liberal-Conservative Hawaii is one of those tropes I'm constantly confused by.
 
A New Chaotic Multi-Party American Series!

New England + New York

Liberal Alliance: 18
Progressive Coalition: 17
Conservative Party of New York: 6
Nation First: 2
Liberty Forward: 1
Independent (yellow): 1
Vermont Progressive Party: 1
Progressive Conservative: 1
Maine!: 1

Liberal Alliance (social liberalism) All-American
Progressive Coalition (social liberalism, social democracy, progressism) All-American
Conservative Party of New York (conservatism) New York
Nation First (right-wing populism, protectionism) All-American
Liberty Forward (centrism, reformism) New York, New Jersey, Massachussetts
Vermont Progressive Party (democratic socialism, left-wing populism, regionalism) Vermont
Progressive Conservative (liberal conservatism) All-American
Maine! (populism, protectionism, regionalism) Maine


upload_2017-10-8_16-24-40.png
 
The Boot's On The Other Foot

The same polling as the 25th April that put the Tories 25 points ahead but with Tories and Labour flipped.

Labour: 439 seats (+177)
Conservative: 141 seats (-177)
Liberal Democrat: 26 seats (+14)
Scottish National Party: 23 seats (-12)
Plaid Cymru: 2 seats (-2)
Green: 1 seat (=)
Northern Ireland: 18 seats (=)

View attachment 348122

A Y L E S B U R Y
Y
L
E
S
B
U
R
Y
 
The Boot's On The Other Foot

The same polling as the 25th April that put the Tories 25 points ahead but with Tories and Labour flipped.

Labour: 439 seats (+177)
Conservative: 141 seats (-177)
Liberal Democrat: 26 seats (+14)
Scottish National Party: 23 seats (-12)
Plaid Cymru: 2 seats (-2)
Green: 1 seat (=)
Northern Ireland: 18 seats (=)

Of course the scary thing is that there's a couple of seats where the Lib Dems might still flip it even beyond this- Sutton and Cheam for example which was basically sacrificed to keep Carshalton and Wallington, and where if the polls are looking like this is likely to get more of the resources instead.

Plus the Scottish seats are likely to be a bit odd depending on where the unionists go instead.
 
No Electoral College: Election of 1936

View attachment 348214

An alternate 1936 election in a world where there is no Electoral College (at least, not by this time). Same two major-party nominees with the addition of Union Nominee Governor Huey Long of Louisiana and some States' Rights Party nominee (both parties made their debuts in this election).
There should be more of these maps. 1980, 1992 and 2016 would be especially interesting. What is PV of this map?
 
No Electoral College: Election of 1860

View attachment 348215
The election of 1860 led to the secession of 11 states and the creation of the Confederate States of America following the election of Former Illinois Representative Abraham Lincoln on the anti-slavery Republican Party ticket. Lincoln won the election by winning a plurality of the popular vote, less than 35%. The Democratic Party split two ways, with Illinois Senator Stephen Douglass leading the northern faction and Former Vice President John C. Breckinridge of Kentucky leading the southern faction. Douglass only managed to win three states, Missouri, new Jersey, and his home state of Illinois, and Breckinridge was able to carry seven states, Arkansas, Florida, South Carolina, North Carolina, Alabama, Mississippi, and the western state of Oregon. Texas Governor Sam Houston carried the Whig Party into second place by taking advantage of the break within the Democratic Party and emphasis on national unity. Despite the party's strong showing, it shortly crumbled, and its members joined the post-war Republican and Democratic Parties.

This was the last election in which the popular-vote winner was selected by a plurality of voters, for it wasn't until the passage of the 16th Amendment, which rejoining southern states pushed for, that the top two candidates who did not receive 50% or more of the vote would face each other at a later time.
1912 Wilson vs Roosevelt run-off?
 
No Electoral College: Election of 1936
No Electoral College: Election of 1860

No Electoral College: Election of 1912

Screen Shot 2017-10-08 at 8.38.07 PM.png

Former President Teddy Roosevelt's Progressive Party burst onto the scene with the former leader running for a third, non-consecutive term. Roosevelt quickly overcame President William H. Taft, who was Roosevelt's chosen successor within the party. New Jersey Governor Woodrow Wilson took advantage of the rift and attacked both candidates. Many were uncertain about the election's outcome, with most projecting an outright win for Wilson. However, on Election Day, Wilson underperformed, winning just over 39% of votes cast. Most surprising of all was that Socialist Nominee Eugene Debs of Indiana, who was elected as a representative six years earlier, won Oklahoma outright. Most pundits brushed off his candidacy due to nationwide opposition to socialism, but they failed to take into consideration his unusually above-average approvals throughout the state.

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In the runoff election, held two weeks after the initial election, Roosevelt campaigned tirelessly to win over those who had voted for Taft, as well as emphasizing his anti-monopoly policies so as to sway Debs voters. However, Roosevelt was faced with two problems. The first was that non-progressive Republicans were not easily persuaded by the outspoken progressive Roosevelt. Conservative Republicans refused to vote for "a leftist in sheep's clothing," as one voter described him, and some even voted for Wilson as a protest. The second problem was that the Socialist voters he sought to bring into his column were strongly against his unabashedly pro-war stance. In the first round, the former president emphasized choosing a side in Europe, while the other candidates did not share his views. Debs continually attacked Roosevelt as being a warmonger. Many Socialists did appreciate his anti-monopoly policies, but his seeming willingness to have the United States pick a side and risk a major war was not to be accepted.

First Round:

Governor Woodrow Wilson: 39.4%
Former President Theodore Roosevelt: 28.9%
President William Taft: 22.7%

Representative Eugene Debs: 8.2%

Second Round:

Governor Woodrow Wilson: 54.8%

Former President Theodore Roosevelt: 45.2%
 
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