Alternate Electoral Maps II

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Cuba today in a no Communist Revolution scenario. The island nation slowly moved to democracy following Batista’s death in 1973, adopting a parliamentary political system in the 1980s with free elections.

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The Liberal Party of Cuba is currently the largest after the 2018 general elections that saw David Álvarez become the country's 8th Prime Minister. Running on a platform that upholds ordoliberalism, social moderatism, and pan-Hispanic defense and economic pacts, assured that they would be seen as good alternatives to the Labor Party by the political center and even some lefties.


Labor meanwhile was reduced to opposition following the precepted failures of Prime Minister Carmen Chavez, who has been described by observers as the Jeremy Corbyn of Latin America. Labor endorses a strong populist emphasis on workers’ rights and social justice, but their willingness to defund the Cuban military and general skeptical behavior towards the leaders of the Hispanic Union in Buenos Aires has seen their numbers fall in the polls as the result of them being seen as weak against the US’s attempts to destabilize the Western Hemisphere.


Ernesto Guevara’s nightmare come true! The National Party of Cuba, the last of the “Big Three” parties, is one that is far-right both socially and economically. Always accused of brownnosing their Great Northern Neighbor, they have the ultra-religious Catholic voting block down with their firebrand speeches against the so-called evils of abortion and homosexuality. Their philia towards the Anglo-Americans has led to accusations of willing pawnhoods in the name of mad nationalism, but surely you can trust a Caribbean politician who supports America’s annexation of the Bahamas? People wishing for the “good ol’ days” of Latin American leaders like Augusto Pinochet have an odd, yet sizable presence in parliament through the Nationalists.
 
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Just to demonstrate how Democratic DC is, here's 1964 uniformly swung to the extent that Goldwater wins DC.

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Barry Goldwater (R-AZ)/William Miller (R-NY) 538 electoral votes, 74.47% popular vote

Lyndon B. Johnson (D-TX)/Hubert Humphrey (D-MN) 0 electoral votes, 25.05% popular vote
 
I'm probably not qualified to say, honestly.

That is fine. I was just curious about your opinions. I haven't worked on the alternate 2018 midterms further, but I have been creating articles for the alternate House, Senate, and gubernatorial elections in the "New Rutherford" Scenario. It was interesting to describe how each individual race would play out in such a scenario, with Republican candidates largely trying to distance themselves from Leach, in the same manner that Republicans distanced themselves from Goldwater in 1964 or Democrats from McGovern in 1972. Part of my motivation for creating the scenario was my fascination at those two elections, and how frequent ticket-splitting used to be. It still astounds me that 2016 was the first time ever that every State voted exactly the same way for both Senate and President.
 
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Gov. Haley Choi (R-CA)/Gov. John Kasich (R-OH) ~ 471 EVs, 61.7%
Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D-NY)/Sen. Mark Warner (D-VA) ~ 67 EVs, 36.5%

The 2016 election using a charecter of mine, a popular Female Korean-American Governor of California, a safe Democratic state. County map to come soon
Did Cuomo shoot someone at the debates?
 
Here is another map that I've created. These are the House election results by congressional district for the "New Rutherford" Scenario. I think these results are good correlations to the alternate party coalitions that exist in this timeline. Dark blue districts are Democratic holds; dark red districts are Republican ones. Light blue are Democratic gains; light red are Republican ones. No Democratic incumbent loses in this scenario, nor do any Democratic open seats change hands. Democrats pick up a net gain of 38 House seats here.

1280
 
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That is fine. I was just curious about your opinions. I haven't worked on the alternate 2018 midterms further, but I have been creating articles for the alternate House, Senate, and gubernatorial elections in the "New Rutherford" Scenario. It was interesting to describe how each individual race would play out in such a scenario, with Republican candidates largely trying to distance themselves from Leach, in the same manner that Republicans distanced themselves from Goldwater in 1964 or Democrats from McGovern in 1972. Part of my motivation for creating the scenario was my fascination at those two elections, and how frequent ticket-splitting used to be. It still astounds me that 2016 was the first time ever that every State voted exactly the same way for both Senate and President.
On second thought, here's some guesses, just don't take these too seriously.

(In no particular order) - (Also, I made up some of these candidates)

Washington: Bob Ferguson (D) vs. Richard Schrock (R)
Montana: Jon Tester (D) vs. Russ Fagg (R)
Wyoming: Liz Cheney (R) vs. Chris Rothfuss (D)
California: Neel Kashkari (R) vs. Nancy Pelosi (D)
Nevada: Brian Sandoval vs. William Hickman (R)
Utah: Mia Love (R) vs. Scott Matheson (D)
Arizona: Janet Napolitano (D) vs. Jan Brewer (R)
New Mexico: William R. "Willy" Hernandez (D) vs. Gary Johnson (R)
North Dakota: John Hoeven (R) vs. Libertarian Vanity Candidate (L)
Nebraska: Ben Sasse (R) vs. Lisa Parker (D)
Texas: Ruff Oilman (D) vs. Spine Les Anderson (R)
Hawaii: Duke Aiona (D) vs. Linda Lingle (R)
West Virginia: Jay Rockefeller (D) vs. Don Blankenship
Mississippi: Cindy Hyde-Smith runs unopposed
Vermont: Barnie Sandles (I-D) vs. Scott Philman (R)
Maine: Angus Beef (I-D) vs. Bruce Kingman (R)
Virginia: Jim Warner (R) vs. John Kaine (D)
 
On second thought, here's some guesses, just don't take these too seriously.

(In no particular order) - (Also, I made up some of these candidates)

Washington: Bob Ferguson (D) vs. Richard Schrock (R)
Montana: Jon Tester (D) vs. Russ Fagg (R)
Wyoming: Liz Cheney (R) vs. Chris Rothfuss (D)
California: Neel Kashkari (R) vs. Nancy Pelosi (D)
Nevada: Brian Sandoval vs. William Hickman (R)
Utah: Mia Love (R) vs. Scott Matheson (D)
Arizona: Janet Napolitano (D) vs. Jan Brewer (R)
New Mexico: William R. "Willy" Hernandez (D) vs. Gary Johnson (R)
North Dakota: John Hoeven (R) vs. Libertarian Vanity Candidate (L)
Nebraska: Ben Sasse (R) vs. Lisa Parker (D)
Texas: Ruff Oilman (D) vs. Spine Les Anderson (R)
Hawaii: Duke Aiona (D) vs. Linda Lingle (R)
West Virginia: Jay Rockefeller (D) vs. Don Blankenship
Mississippi: Cindy Hyde-Smith runs unopposed
Vermont: Barnie Sandles (I-D) vs. Scott Philman (R)
Maine: Angus Beef (I-D) vs. Bruce Kingman (R)
Virginia: Jim Warner (R) vs. John Kaine (D)
Some of these candidate names are hilarious (i.e. "Ruff Oilman" and "Spine Les Anderson"), but these are good guesses. They are mostly what I had in mind, except swap Bob Ferguson for Maria Cantwell, Ruff Oilman for Chet Edwards, Cindy Hyde-Smith for Roger Wicker (as MS, as I depicted it on the map, is the regular election), "Willy" Hernandez for Martin Heinrich, Deb Fischer for Ben Sasse, and Jim Warner for Ed Gillepsie. Also, it would be Neel Kashkari versus Dianne Feinstein, and Krysten Sinema versus Kelli Ward. In the "New Rutherford" scenario, 2018 would see some gains for the Republicans (like most midterm elections do for the party out of power), but Democrats would retain their majorities. Republicans would pick up Democratic seats in California, Tennessee, and Indiana (defeating Feinstein, Harold Ford, Jr., and Joe Donnelly), while Democrats would pick up Republican seats in Ohio and Arizona (defeating Josh Mandel and Kelli Ward, succeeding the retiring Rob Portman and Jeff Flake).

The parties would otherwise hold all of their present seats (Scott Brown is the Republican Senator in Massachusetts here, Jodi Rell the Republican Senator in Connecticut, Thomas Kean, Jr. the Republican Senator in New Jersey, Tommy Thompson the Republican Senator in Wisconsin). Brown, Rell, and Kean Jr. win landslide reelections, Thompson a comfortable victory. Republicans would come very close to defeating Debbie Stabenow in Michigan. Roger Wicker runs unopposed, and Sanders and King are reelected in Vermont and Maine respectively. Brian Sandoval would win the election in Nevada to succeed Dean Heller, and Bill Nelson would be easily reelected in Florida, defeating Rick Scott by 24 points. Joe Manchin would destroy Don Blankenship in West Virginia by more then thirty points, and Jon Tester would flatten Fagg by nearly thirty as well.

John Hoeven would be easily reelected in North Dakota, Cardin and Carper would win landslide reelections in Maryland and Delaware respectively, and Heinrich would comfortably defeat his Republican challenger in New Mexico (though it would not be Gary Johnson). Cantwell would win a landslide reelection in Washington, Sheldon Whitehouse would sail to reelection in Rhode Island, and Michael Bloomberg would win in New York. Claire McCaskill would smash Josh Hawley by twenty points in Missouri, Ed Gillepsie would win reelection in Virginia, and Bob Casey Jr. would be easily reelected in Pennsylvania. Wyoming would elect Liz Cheney to succeed John Barrasso, and Nebraska would return Deb Fischer to the Senate. Chet Edwards (who would be Senate Majority Leader here) would obtain 75% of the vote in Texas over an unknown Republican challenger. Finally, Mia Love would win the race in Utah to succeed Orrin Hatch, and Minnesota would return Amy Klobuchar to the Senate.
 
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I am making a novel, with a bit of alternate history. All pre 1860 elections are same as OTL, and 1860 is the first small divergence. There is no south split.


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Abraham Lincoln - 158 electoral votes / 38 percent popular vote

Stephen Douglas - 145 electoral votes / 62 percent popular vote

"Despite the fact that Douglas earned 1 million more votes than Lincoln, and managed to win his home state by a margin of less than one percent, he was narrowly defeated for the presidency. Lincoln's popular vote less of such a extent never has been approached since. The closest to earning the mark was 2012, when Obama earned 800K votes less than Romney, but still won by a narrow margin. Lincoln is one of only two or three presidents to get elected with less than forty percent of the popular vote. Despite this, Lincoln is considered by many to be one of the greatest presidents. One does however have to ask, what if Douglas did win? There would have been a clear mandate for him. Who knows, maybe the war would not have happened. I might not even have been born."

- Quoted from Minnesota Senator and Vice president Todd Robinson, August 15 2018
 
1864, 1868, and 1872 are the same as our timeline

1876 election in my story

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Edward Thane - 203 electoral votes / 50 percent popular vote
Rutherford Hayes - 161 electoral votes / 47 percent popular vote
Peter Cooper - 5 electoral votes / 3 percent popular vote

*I mistyped how many electoral votes Hayes had, and gave him 162 by mistake, and as a result, due to that goof, I decided to just boot it down to 161 and make it canon that Peter Cooper won Kansas. It was unplanned, but it is canon now.

**Edward Thane is fictional, born in 1825 from Georgia, with New York as his home state after he moved there in 1863

"This was the election of one of the worst presidents in history. This man was corrupt as it can get. He was so corrupt that any president before and after him would blush by comparison. He forced himself to be governor by rigging the election and coming off as a savior. He also rigged some of the election ballots as we would later find out years past the event. In the end, he cared more about power than the simple good of this world. He was one of the reasons I became a politician, and I will keep fighting as long as I live, since I am tired of the back stabbing people in this scene."

Quoted from Todd Robinson when he was on the campaign trail as a third party in 1988.
 
Here's a scenario where I think one side would win the electoral college by a slim margin while doing terribly in the popular vote:
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What do you think the PV looks like here?
 
Here's a scenario where I think one side would win the electoral college by a slim margin while doing terribly in the popular vote:
genusmap.php


What do you think the PV looks like here?
Isn't this something akin to the elections of 1876 or 1888? In that the Democrats run up numbers in the South, win a few Northern or border states, and lose by close margins in states of the Midwest and Northeast? That is how Samuel Tilden and Grover Cleveland won the popular vote even as they lost in the Electoral College.
 
Isn't this something akin to the elections of 1876 or 1888? In that the Democrats run up numbers in the South, win a few Northern or border states, and lose by close margins in states of the Midwest and Northeast? That is how Samuel Tilden and Grover Cleveland won the popular vote even as they lost in the Electoral College.
Yes, except I gave the Democrat 80-90% across the South, >60% in California, and made all the states the Republican wins very close.
 
1880 in my story

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James Garfield - 247 electoral votes / 57 percent popular vote
Edward Thane - 122 electoral votes / 42 percent popular vote

"1880 was the first real post war landslide. The stuff that Edward did before he entered office and after he was elected really started to show itself fully to the public. Once it started to get exposed in 1878, nothing can stop it. He was watching his entire career implode. At the end, he won only the southern states. Even then Kentucky and Missouri almost went blue. If they voted republican, he would have gotten less than 100 electoral votes. It is no shock that the country was tired of corruption and elected a nice and young and charismatic man with James Garfield. His death ruined everything though sadly. He was killed just weeks before he turned 50, being the first president to do so. The democrats really did a smart move nominating Cleveland in 1884, to distance themselves away from the image Thane put up.

Thane never moved past the controversy. People wanted persecution so badly that the only way to do it was to either get a pardon, which was impossible with Cleveland being such a honorable man, or to take his life. He took the later option, being the only president to ever kill himself, when he took his life in 1886"

Quoted from Todd Robinson during his seventh grade history report in 1963

*If you guys are interested in knowing all of these details, I might turn this into a full timeline.
 
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I combined Bill Clinton's best performance in each county/county equivalent, removed Ross Perot's votes, and did a 10% swing (D+5, R-5) to make a massive Clintonslide, as I like to call it.


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I combined Bill Clinton's best performance in each county/county equivalent, removed Ross Perot's votes, and did a 10% swing (D+5, R-5) to make a massive Clintonslide, as I like to call it.


ZuROjdr.jpg
Which states would Clinton win here? The only ones that I could see going Republican for sure are Alaska, Nebraska, and Idaho. Utah and Oklahoma are possibilities (dependent upon the margins in Oklahoma City and Tulsa in the latter).
 
Here's something interesting. Following upon the Clinton-Perot and Bush-Perot scenarios that were posted here earlier, here is a map of what the 1912 election would have looked like if all of the people who voted for Theodore Roosevelt (Bull Moose Party) that year went for Woodrow Wilson instead. Wilson would have carried every state in the Union, even the Republican bastions of Maine and Vermont, and would have defeated Taft and Debs 69.24-23.17-5.99% in the popular vote. Because Roosevelt was not on the ballot in Oklahoma, and since Debs got 16% of the vote there, Wilson's plurality win in the state remains unchanged, but he gets an absolute majority in every other state and wins some of them, both North and South, by ridiculous margins.

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Woodrow Wilson/Thomas R. Marshall-69.24%-531 EV
William Howard Taft/Nicholas M. Butler-23.17%-0 EV
Eugene V. Debs/Emil Sedel-5.99%-0 EV
 
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