Alternate Electoral Maps II

Discussion in 'Alternate History Maps and Graphics' started by Aaaaasima, May 22, 2017.

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  1. Tex Arkana Spice for President!

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    If Manchin could keep up Obama/Clinton-like margins in NOVA, he would win Virginia by ~15% considering he'd also be doing extremely well in Southeast Virginia. but I think in reality he'd do only slightly better than Kerry '04 in NOVA, so he'd probably win by 5% or so in a close election.
     
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  2. Gonzo Grumpy Poujadist Norn Person

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    Yay! :D

    I love it.
     
  3. Gonzo Grumpy Poujadist Norn Person

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    This is right. I think the best a Democrat could do would be to replicate the addition of Clinton's 1992 and 1996 showings, plus Virginia, even then I feel that states like Arkansas, Tennessee, and Missouri have gone too far away for the party to really win there. I think some people have to look into the possibility of Manchin, while being able to flip perhaps Georgia and North Carolina back in the Democratic column, not being able to win his home state (remember, Lloyd Bentsen won Texas at the Senate level in 1988 easily, but for the Presidential level the Dukakis/Bentsen ticket failed to win Texas.)
     
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  4. DPKdebator Hmm...

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    Massachusetts
    Here are a few other scenarios:

    Comfortable Baker victory:
    [​IMG]

    Moderate Baker victory (same thing as the first state map I posted):
    [​IMG]

    Close Baker victory:
    [​IMG]

    Close Manchin victory:
    [​IMG]

    Moderate Manchin victory:
    [​IMG]

    Comfortable Manchin victory:
    [​IMG]
     
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  5. Baconheimer Berserker of Chaos

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    I don't know why you guys think Manchin couldn't take Wisconsin and Michigan. It seems to me he's just the sort of Democrat they like there.
     
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  6. Osk Eu set di la Oskaña

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    The sentiment that, "OMG he's a RURAL democrat!!!!!!!! He'll TOTALLY SWEEP THE SOUTH/GOP DOMINANT PLACES NOW" is, as someone who studies American politics, so annoying to see time and time again. I mean maybe nominating Manchin starts a trend, but some of y'all are really overestimating general party entrenchment in some of these regions. And overestimating how much an individuals actual policy positions matter. Many times regardless of personal position, voters see the big ticket positions of their party first.

    And let alone that for these candidates to even get the nomination, they have to go insular towards their bases during the primary, which will hinder their center appeal even if only a little.

    Anyway, the reasons why just nominating a candidate that seems to fit a mold isn't enough to flip a region are manyfold.
     
  7. IFwanderer Banned

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    Best Manchin: why doesn't he get NH?
     
  8. Thomas Johnson Banned

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  9. Caprice Psephologising since 2011

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    [​IMG]
    A county map of the 2016 election with all of Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump's votes removed. For some states, I couldn't find county returns for all of the candidates (mostly write-ins). I used the County-BAM, obviously.

    [​IMG]
    The percentage for Johnson only.
     
  10. Turquoise Blue Blossoming Tibby!

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    @jtheoengel: I know the write-ins in Vermont are all Bernie, but what about those in eastern Wyoming and Nebraska?
     
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  11. Caprice Psephologising since 2011

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    They're all unspecified write-ins. Same with DC and Minnesota.
     
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  12. DPKdebator Hmm...

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    I agree that Manchin would not win the South barring some (pretty much impossible) huge realignment or he wins by a very large margin: in a realistic scenario, he'd probably win WV and at most KY. I also made my maps based off Baker and Manchin's current positions, not any big changes they'd make to win a primary (since their differences from the national parties would make it more interesting).
     
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  13. Osk Eu set di la Oskaña

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    Oh I don't necessarily mean yours in particular! In fact I quite like the varying maps you made to show different scenarios. I've just seen this whole idea of a rural Democrat/urban Repunlican match up causing radical shifts one too many times! A few weeks back someone posted a map that literally had the GOP and Dem states just flipped, with the reasoning being "oh the dem was rural and the GOP was urban" lol see what I mean
     
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  14. Osk Eu set di la Oskaña

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    OMG guys! I made an awesome map depicting exactly how the states would vote if like the GOP totally nominated an urbanite and like OMG the Dems nominated a Blue Dog!!!! NEW PARTY SYSTEM, amirite?!


    Screen Shot 2017-07-19 at 11.48.07 PM.png
    INSERT RURAL BLUE DOG DEM - 306 EV
    INSERT URBAN MODERATE REP - 232
    (While this is most certainly a joke, a few weeks or months ago someone literally did practically exactly this, and they weren't joking. Considering the topic here as of late, decided to post a joke map to highlight disdain for this growing cliche.)
     
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  15. AltFuture Incurable Germanophile

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  16. ElectricSheepNo54 Well-Known Member

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    I had to time to spare, so here's my interpretation of a close match between Baker and Manchin:

    Charlie Baker (R-MA) - 271
    Joe Manchin (D-WV) - 267

    Baker v. Manchin.png
     
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  17. The Alexander Hamilton Potentially the only Neoliberal on the forum

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    Feb 19, 2017
    Why do people keep making maps where Baker wins Connecticut? Sure he's a moderate from Massachusetts but here is the Dem track record in CT in the last five elections:
    2000- Gore won by 17 points
    2004- Kerry won by 10 points
    2008- Obama won by 22 points
    2012- Obama won by 17 points
    2016- Hillary won by 13 points

    The Democrats essentially have a lock on Connecticut with both Senators and all Representatives being Democrats and the last time the Republicans won the state was in 1988. Sure it might be closer than normal in a Baker vs. Manchin scenario but I really don't see it going red anytime soon. If you have Massachusetts stay blue in this match up, Connecticut should as well.
     
  18. IFwanderer Banned

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  19. Fed That Colombian Guy

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    I don't think there'd be this huge overturning of the party system. Gore lost Tennessee as a Southern Democrat and Romney lost Massachussetts as the closest thing to a Rockefeller Republican that still exists - and 2000 and even 2012 were far less polarised than 2016.
     
  20. Unmentionable Alligator You Know I Had to Do It to Em

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    USA! USA! USA!
    [​IMG]
     
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