Alternate Electoral Maps II

[leecannon_]

Delaware's Congressional Delegation

There are currently 2 congressmen from Delaware after the 2020 congressional election. They are elected form one, two member district elected by ranked voting. A member is granted to a state for each 550,000 people who live in it. Representatives are listed in order of votes they received last election. Delaware is the smallest state with 2 representatives. It gained a second representative after the 2010 census. This was the first time Delaware had more than one representative since 1823, however Delaware has never had more than one district

DE-At-Large D+8
D-Lisa Blunt Rochester 2017-Present
D-Elena Delle Donne 2021-Present

 

[jonnguy2016]

1976 if Carter ran a more explicitly Southern campaign (whatever the hell that even means):

Carter most likely wins the popular vote despite losing the electoral college 209-329.

So basically if he went full George Wallace?

 

[Charlie950]

There are currently 15 congressmen from Virginia after the 2020 congressional election.

Typo?

 

[Tex Arkana]

So basically if he went full George Wallace?

No, more like if he picked another Southerner as his running mate and (for some reason) decided to campaign even more in the Southern states. what I did was a 5% swing to Carter in the South and a 5% swing to Ford everywhere else.

 

[nofynofie]

Here is one scenario that will probably never happen but it is fun to think about it.
I tried to figure out what would third party victory look like today (2016, 2020...). So I made this map. Yellow candidate wins all of the states that are not 100% safe D nor 100% safe R (s/he might also win OR, IN, ND and CT).
What do you guys think such candidate would be like? I guess someone who can appeal to the working class regardless of race (rust belt, the south), Hispanic voters (sun belt) and someone who is not too ideological.

 

[leecannon_]

Typo?

Yea, thanks!

 

[Zachary VIII]

Here is one scenario that will probably never happen but it is fun to think about it.
I tried to figure out what would third party victory look like today (2016, 2020...). So I made this map. Yellow candidate wins all of the states that are not 100% safe D nor 100% safe R (s/he might also win OR, IN, ND and CT).
What do you guys think such candidate would be like? I guess someone who can appeal to the working class regardless of race (rust belt, the south), Hispanic voters (sun belt) and someone who is not too ideological.
View attachment 397689

I feel like any third party victory would more likely be the result of a split in the GOP or Dems. Like maybe both parties nominate very weak and ideologically extreme candidates and strong moderate launches and independent campaign that draws voters from both parties.

 

[Tex Arkana]

1976 if Carter ran a more explicitly Southern campaign (whatever the hell that even means):

Carter most likely wins the popular vote despite losing the electoral college 209-329.

And the county map, per usual:

 

[LoganZombieOfTime]

A Dutch Poll in Early January 2016 showed the PVV with 42 Seats (28%) for the Dutch 2016 Elections in March. Here is what the election could have looked like if that poll was the outcome of the election.

PVV - 28% - 42 Seats
CDA - 13% - 19 Seats
VVD - 12% - 18 Seats
GL - 11% - 16 Seats
SP - 10% - 15 Seats
D66 - 10% - 15 Seats
PvdA - 6% - 9 Seats
CU - 3% - 5 Seats
PvdD - 3% - 4 Seats
50+ - 3% - 4 Seats
SGP - 2% - 3 Seats

 

[Zachary VIII]

The 2010 New York gubernatorial election if Donald Trump ran as a Republican, but the Conservative party refused to endorse him (He was far less right wing back then) and fielded their own candidate under a Tea Party platform, but their campaign is poorly managed and fails to really take off.

Andrew Cuomo (Democratic/Working Families) 57%
Donald Trump (Republican) 35%
Ralph Lorigo (Conservative) 7%

 

[X_X]

A Dutch Poll in Early January 2016 showed the PVV with 42 Seats (28%) for the Dutch 2016 Elections in March. Here is what the election could have looked like if that poll was the outcome of the election.

That would be a total shitshow. None of the major parties would form a coalition with PVV due to Wilders's extremist politics, so a centrist coalition without the largest party would be the most likely outcome. Totally unthinkable, yet the opposition would see it as the quickest and best choice to keep Wilders from power. And then PVV voters would riot on the streets for days if that happened.

 

[JLUK1234]

Here is one scenario that will probably never happen but it is fun to think about it.
I tried to figure out what would third party victory look like today (2016, 2020...). So I made this map. Yellow candidate wins all of the states that are not 100% safe D nor 100% safe R (s/he might also win OR, IN, ND and CT).
What do you guys think such candidate would be like? I guess someone who can appeal to the working class regardless of race (rust belt, the south), Hispanic voters (sun belt) and someone who is not too ideological.
View attachment 397689

I have a few issues with how you've done this. Would a moderate centrist candidate do so well in the South and so badly in California and New England? Note that when the Republicans have put up moderate candidates e.g. Arnie and Charlie Baker for the gubernatorial elections in those areas, they are usually victorious. Furthermore, whilst yes, Louisiana has a Democratic Governor and last year the Democrat Doug Jones won a Senate seat for Alabama, would conservative voters vote for a socially liberal candidate in their droves? I suspect a moderate candidate would be more likely to eat into Democrat support in the South. I agree with Texas, Georgia and North Carolina and a lot of the rest of your idea.

 

[TheSaint250]

snip

If you don’t mind, where did you get the data for this map?

 

[nofynofie]

I have a few issues with how you've done this. Would a moderate centrist candidate do so well in the South and so badly in California and New England? Note that when the Republicans have put up moderate candidates e.g. Arnie and Charlie Baker for the gubernatorial elections in those areas, they are usually victorious. Furthermore, whilst yes, Louisiana has a Democratic Governor and last year the Democrat Doug Jones won a Senate seat for Alabama, would conservative voters vote for a socially liberal candidate in their droves? I suspect a moderate candidate would be more likely to eat into Democrat support in the South. I agree with Texas, Georgia and North Carolina and a lot of the rest of your idea.

Yeah, I can see moderate/liberal third party candidate winning blue states such as Oregon, CT and maybe N Jersey and Washington (although not sure about some other states).
But a populist third party candidate could win states like LA and Mississippi as well as the Rust belt.
I'll make several different maps later.

 

[Tex Arkana]

Here is one scenario that will probably never happen but it is fun to think about it.
I tried to figure out what would third party victory look like today (2016, 2020...). So I made this map. Yellow candidate wins all of the states that are not 100% safe D nor 100% safe R (s/he might also win OR, IN, ND and CT).
What do you guys think such candidate would be like? I guess someone who can appeal to the working class regardless of race (rust belt, the south), Hispanic voters (sun belt) and someone who is not too ideological.
View attachment 397689

The Deep South isn't voting for a moderate hero third party, and in fact in this scenario, Mississippi would likely vote Democratic due to vote splitting, since they have a solid 40% floor there due to black voters.

 

[Calthrina950]

I think I'll work on a county map for this... Do you have a rough idea of how many counties Clinton would've won here?

This would be an interesting idea to see. I would be fascinated by how many counties would hold out in a scenario where Democrats got 71% of the vote. I also wonder how the vote would have looked like by demographic.

 

[naraht]

I think I'll work on a county map for this... Do you have a rough idea of how many counties Clinton would've won here?

I still don't think this is enough for a democratic "road" from coast to coast, I think we figured out here that the shift had to be a little bit bigger than this.

 

[Tex Arkana]

I still don't think this is enough for a democratic "road" from coast to coast, I think we figured out here that the shift had to be a little bit bigger than this.

I'll just go all out and do a 60% swing, adding 30 to Hillary and taking 30 from Trump.

 

[TimTurner]

an alternate system of sub-federal government for the US would look like. OTL states exist for statistical reasons, and are paired together* for the purpose of creating regions. Districts designed to loosely be around 3 million each are created, and they double as PR districts for the House of Representatives. why 3 million? because that's (roughly) the national populated divided by 100.
*=the one exception being California, because it's so big

 

[JLUK1234]

I've been looking at US Senate elections that come after my POD in my Bush '92 thing.

Here is the 2000 election in California.

Tom Campbell - Republican 46.59%
Dianne Feinstein - Democrat 45.84%