Alternate Electoral Maps II

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How I think the 1912 candidates in FNM would have fared in OTL 1912 America:

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William T. Watson/Edward L. Henderson - 413 EV
Andrei 'Andy' Rabinovich/Robert L. Owen - 99 EV

Booker T. Washington/Francis E. Warren 14 - EV
 
1960

1960 ended in failure for the Republicans, after the nomination of a young and inexperienced actor Ronald Reagan. Instead, Lyndon Johnson and his vice presidential candidate, John F. Kennedy, came to the White House.

Senate Majority Leader Lyndon Johnson / Senator John Kennedy (Democrat) - 360 EV (51.9% of PV)
Actor Ronald Reagan / Senator Barry Goldwater (Republican) - 177 EV (47.7% of PV)
Representative George McGovern / Senator Eugene McCarthy (Progressive) - 0 EV (0.3% of PV)

genusmap.php

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1964

Johnson's term was neither bad nor good. The economy was more or less stable. The war in Vietnam went badly, but not catastrophically. An act of civil rights was introduced in 1964.
The Republicans nominated Goldwater, which they had to regret. The Southern Democrats separated and nominated Wallace.

Other events: anti-war demonstrations; preverted Johnson assasination

President Lyndon Johnson / Vice President John Kennedy (Democrat) - 512 EV (55.3% of PV)
Senator Barry Goldwater / Representative William Miller (Republican) - 9 EV (38.9% of PV)
Governor George Wallace / Governor Orval Faubus (Southern Democrat) - 17 EV (5.9% of PV)


genusmap.php

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1968

Johnson's second term ended in a very bad situation in Vietnam and economic stagnation. It would seem that the Republicans had to win this election. But because of the betrayal of Reagan, who lost the primaries, many votes went to his independent ticket. Vice President Kennedy won.
However, another month the results of the elections were disputed. Recounts were conducted in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Oregon and New York. In December, 26th the courts decided to end recounts, final results declared Kennedy as the victor.

Vice President John Kennedy / Senator Hubert Humphrey (Democrat) - 326 EV (47.9% of PV)
Governor Nelson Rockefeller / Governor George Romney (Republican) - 212 EV (45.3% of PV)
Governor Ronald Reagan / Senator Strom Thurmond (Independent Republican) - 0 EV (6.9% of PV)

genusmap.php

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I made a county map of a hypothetical election between Charlie Baker and Joe Manchin, which looks like this:
f9iWNAV.jpg

Manchin flips many counties in Appalachia and the Mississippi Delta, while Baker is able to win over many Northern suburban counties.

I also made a state map, with the scenario depicting a comfortable Baker victory (323 EV - 215 EV). Such a strange (and unfortunately unlikely) matchup could produce many results (i.e. Manchin could've won states like NV, NC, MN, and PA while Baker might have won states like CO, KY, and VA), and although the margin of victory here is large it isn't impossible. While Manchin would improve greatly in Appalachia and the South, lower African American turnout would stop the South from flipping. Baker would appeal to (especially Northern, where there'd be a bit of a favorite son factor) suburbanites, which helps him win most of the Midwest and dampen the Democratic margins of the Northeast. Overall, the results are less extreme in terms of percentage than elections like 2016, which had 13 states over 60% (this only has 7).
upload_2017-7-18_12-55-10.png
 
I made a county map of a hypothetical election between Charlie Baker and Joe Manchin, which looks like this:
f9iWNAV.jpg

Manchin flips many counties in Appalachia and the Mississippi Delta, while Baker is able to win over many Northern suburban counties.

I also made a state map, with the scenario depicting a comfortable Baker victory (323 EV - 215 EV). Such a strange (and unfortunately unlikely) matchup could produce many results (i.e. Manchin could've won states like NV, NC, MN, and PA while Baker might have won states like CO, KY, and VA), and although the margin of victory here is large it isn't impossible. While Manchin would improve greatly in Appalachia and the South, lower African American turnout would stop the South from flipping. Baker would appeal to (especially Northern, where there'd be a bit of a favorite son factor) suburbanites, which helps him win most of the Midwest and dampen the Democratic margins of the Northeast. Overall, the results are less extreme in terms of percentage than elections like 2016, which had 13 states over 60% (this only has 7).
View attachment 334176


I think this map is overly generous to Baker. I'd imagine Manchin doing much better in the rural west and rural deep south. Also I'm quite sure he'd win Carbon County, Utah as this is a traditional Democratic stronghold and is basically an extension of coal country.
 
1968

Johnson's second term ended in a very bad situation in Vietnam and economic stagnation. It would seem that the Republicans had to win this election. But because of the betrayal of Reagan, who lost the primaries, many votes went to his independent ticket. Vice President Kennedy won.
However, another month the results of the elections were disputed. Recounts were conducted in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Oregon and New York. In December, 26th the courts decided to end recounts, final results declared Kennedy as the victor.

Vice President John Kennedy / Senator Hubert Humphrey (Democrat) - 326 EV (47.9% of PV)
Governor Nelson Rockefeller / Governor George Romeny (Republican) - 212 EV (45.3% of PV)
Governor Ronald Reagan / Senator Strom Thurmond (Independent Republican) - 0 EV (6.9% of PV)

genusmap.php

View attachment 334168
More please
 
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Donald Trump/Mike Pence (Republican): 405 EV
Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine (Democratic): 276 EV

Just a fun little map to see what the 2016 map would look like in the ASL if all the states voted like their OTL analogues. And wow, Hillary got creamed.
 
1964

Basically I had an idle thought of what would happen if the President shot in 1963 was Nixon instead of Kennedy, and ran it through the President Elect game. Basically I had Lodge call for Civil Rights legislation, which also split the Democrats into the usual suspects, causing Thurmond to walk out of the DNC again when they nominate Humphrey

genusmap.php


Henry Cabot Lodge, Jr. (R-MA)/Everett Dirksen (R-IL) 277 electoral votes (PV 25,373,014 41%)
Hubert Humphrey (DFL-MN)/Terry Sanford (D-NC) 236 electoral votes (PV 25,434,952 42%)
Strom Thurmond (SR-SC)/Orval Faubus (SR-AR) 25 electoral votes (PV 10,163,031 17%)

Closest states: Alaska (Humphrey margin over Lodge of 25 votes; initially the press called Alaska for Lodge before getting different results at the final screen) Connecticut (Lodge margin over Humphrey of 105 votes), Louisiana (Humphrey margin over Lodge of 1,200 votes).

Swing states during the election: Texas, Tennessee, Virginia, Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Louisiana, Oregon, New Mexico, Connecticut, Ohio.
 
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Wow. :p What would it take for a 2000 style result in this hypothetical electoral college then? :p
I'll check my numbers. :p

upload_2017-7-18_21-42-30.png

Alright, from the 2012 map and numbers, you only need to flip Kanoji, Kasen and The Mearnland. You'll get a 333 D - 348 R result and if Kanoji [Florida-analogue] is close, there you are.
 
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I'll check my numbers. :p

View attachment 334230
Alright, from the 2012 map and numbers, you only need to flip Kanoji, Kasen and The Mearnland. You'll get a 333 D - 340 R result and if Kanoji [Florida-analogue] is close, there you are.

Now can you do a 1976 analogue map? :p

These are seriously impressive. I presume that... the islands with three electoral votes would be a good Alaska analogue?
 
Now can you do a 1976 analogue map? :p

These are seriously impressive. I presume that... the islands with three electoral votes would be a good Alaska analogue?
In terms of having *Russian heritage and being the faraway cold state of America, yes. For Sarah Palin and quirky local politics, there's Aliesca over in Namada. ;)
 
In terms of having *Russian heritage and being the faraway cold state of America, yes. For Sarah Palin and quirky local politics, there's Aliesca over in Namada. ;)

*Notes to self: 'A bit like pre-2000 Alaskan politics then'*

Don't mean to harp on, but do you have the 'base map' so to speak of the provinces and their names (I did try looking through the various links in your sig, but I alas failed in that endeavour. :p)
 
1964

Basically I had an idle thought of what would happen if the President shot in 1963 was Nixon instead of Kennedy, and ran it through the President Elect game. Basically I had Lodge call for Civil Rights legislation, which also split the Democrats into the usual suspects, causing Thurmond to walk out of the DNC again when they nominate Humphrey
A 25 vote margin! That's insane!
 
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