This thread is for electoral maps and your post is just about an amendment. Even if it's a prelude, I believe it'd be better to include the map in with the post, just my two cents
Alternate Electoral Maps II
- Thread starter Aaaaasima
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I'll create a map to show how the Amendment was approved ASAP.
"Shall the Constitution of the United States of America be amended to define personhood as beginning at the moment of fertilization, and thereby, shall abortion be illegal in all cases as such?"
No 72.3%
Yes 27.7
(Keep in mind this is what I think would happen if Roe V. Wade was overturned and the referendum was specifically on whether all abortions should be illegal and life should be defined as beginning at the moment of fertilization, if the amendment was worded so that abortion would still be legal in cases of rape, incest, or health of the mother, it would be much closer than this)
No 72.3%
Yes 27.7
(Keep in mind this is what I think would happen if Roe V. Wade was overturned and the referendum was specifically on whether all abortions should be illegal and life should be defined as beginning at the moment of fertilization, if the amendment was worded so that abortion would still be legal in cases of rape, incest, or health of the mother, it would be much closer than this)
Passage of the 28th Amendment (Please note that the only opposition is coming from Democrats)
Senate (Pass 70-30)
House (Pass 292-145) (Please ignore the ad since I am too lazy to remove it). I used the 2010 270towin.com interactive map, and so I used red to represent "yea" since all the Republicans vote "yea".
State Vote (Passes 38-12)
Senate (Pass 70-30)
House (Pass 292-145) (Please ignore the ad since I am too lazy to remove it). I used the 2010 270towin.com interactive map, and so I used red to represent "yea" since all the Republicans vote "yea".
State Vote (Passes 38-12)
Cerea
Banned
https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=38&year=2014&f=0&off=50&elect=0"Shall the Constitution of the United States of America be amended to define personhood as beginning at the moment of fertilization, and thereby, shall abortion be illegal in all cases as such?"
No 72.3%
Yes 27.7
(Keep in mind this is what I think would happen if Roe V. Wade was overturned and the referendum was specifically on whether all abortions should be illegal and life should be defined as beginning at the moment of fertilization, if the amendment was worded so that abortion would still be legal in cases of rape, incest, or health of the mother, it would be much closer than this)
Given North Dakota voted 64% against this, I don’t think it’d be significantly less favorable now.
On second thought, No would probably clear 60% everywhere outside the Deep South/Bible Belt and maybe Utah or Idaho.
Given the landslide blanket No vote to an abortion ban, why do you think the vote would be closer if it would be legal in cases of rape, incest, and maternal health?
Any reason ITTL that Dems are opposed to a parliamentary system? What year did the amendment pass?
Because it's a blanket ban, completely banning abortion in all cases and defining life as beginning at the moment of fertilization. If the ban only banned abortion in cases not involving rape, incest, or life of the mother, it would have much more support.
Ah, I misunderstood your post. Thought you were saying that if it was just in cases of incest/rape/maternal health that there would somehow be less support for the ban
The Amendment was proposed at the beginning of the 111th Congress, with California becoming the 38th state to ratify it on 8 March 2010. The reason the hardline Democrats are opposed to it is because they claim it's a Republican conspiracy to take away power from newly-elected President Obama, despite the fact that Obama himself endorsed the amendment. The Republicans support it because it takes power away from Obama.
Tbh, I just cant see a lot of constitutional conservatives voting for this amendment, so I'm not sure how the GOP voted in favor unanimously.
Other than that, I'm looking forward to seeing more posts from this series.
Thanks
I'm working on the 2010 election, which uses the same map as the 2003-2013 districts OTL, but 3rd parties do better because it has to be different from OTL somehow.
It will get good after the 2010 Census
"Shall the Constitution of the United States of America be amended to define personhood as beginning at the moment of fertilization, and thereby, shall abortion be illegal in all cases as such?"
No 72.3%
Yes 27.7
(Keep in mind this is what I think would happen if Roe V. Wade was overturned and the referendum was specifically on whether all abortions should be illegal and life should be defined as beginning at the moment of fertilization, if the amendment was worded so that abortion would still be legal in cases of rape, incest, or health of the mother, it would be much closer than this)
My guess on the future if RvW is completely overturned (rollback to 1972 situation). The Pacific States and the Eastern Seaboard from Maryland north would pass (or continue) state laws restoring the pre overturn situations with the iffy ones being Pennsylvania, Illinois and Minnesota (and Illinois makes a huge different from a Geographical situation). The primary question is what happens on a federal level to attempts to pass federal laws to restrict abortion in those states which would continue to have it. Travel out of country would occur to Canada, but with Mexico City being functionally the only place to get legal abortion and that being limited to 12 weeks, I don't expect movement south.
In any event, I don't expect any sort of amendment to the constitution related to abortion in any way to get through Congress at anywhere near the current balance of support by party.
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1:15 A.M. E.S.T.
McManus: We now have two projections to make:
ARKANSAS - 85% reporting
Baker/Sandoval: 491,813 (51.15%)
Manchin/Klobuchar: 460,234 (47.85%)
Others: 9,601 (1.00%)
McManus: We are able to project the Natural State for Governor Baker. Once a pretty strongly Democratic state, it has not voted Democratic since 1996 and fastly trended to be one of the most GOP states in the Union. This trend has been almost completely eroded, as it is voting for Baker by a similar margin as it did for Bush in 2000.
WASHINGTON - 61% reporting
Manchin/Klobuchar: 1,036,021 (50.76%)
Baker/Sandoval: 980,909 (48.06%)
Others: 24,031 (1.18%)
McManus: Like Arkansas, Washington appears to have largely reverted to a margin like 2000. It has trended strongly Democratic in recent years, but never voted as strongly Democratic as many other strong Democratic states have. While Baker failed to flip the Evergreen State, his performance here might be a bright sign for future GOP candidates.
McManus: Baker is currently up 7, 245-238, with 55 electoral votes remaining uncalled. No clear winner is in sight, as the remaining states are very tight and calling them is too risky.
McManus: We now have two projections to make:
ARKANSAS - 85% reporting
Baker/Sandoval: 491,813 (51.15%)
Manchin/Klobuchar: 460,234 (47.85%)
Others: 9,601 (1.00%)
McManus: We are able to project the Natural State for Governor Baker. Once a pretty strongly Democratic state, it has not voted Democratic since 1996 and fastly trended to be one of the most GOP states in the Union. This trend has been almost completely eroded, as it is voting for Baker by a similar margin as it did for Bush in 2000.
WASHINGTON - 61% reporting
Manchin/Klobuchar: 1,036,021 (50.76%)
Baker/Sandoval: 980,909 (48.06%)
Others: 24,031 (1.18%)
McManus: Like Arkansas, Washington appears to have largely reverted to a margin like 2000. It has trended strongly Democratic in recent years, but never voted as strongly Democratic as many other strong Democratic states have. While Baker failed to flip the Evergreen State, his performance here might be a bright sign for future GOP candidates.
McManus: Baker is currently up 7, 245-238, with 55 electoral votes remaining uncalled. No clear winner is in sight, as the remaining states are very tight and calling them is too risky.
Prediction: Baker wins all the remaining states except Kentucky and Wisconsin, thus winning the election.1:15 A.M. E.S.T.
McManus: We now have two projections to make:
ARKANSAS - 85% reporting
Baker/Sandoval: 491,813 (51.15%)
Manchin/Klobuchar: 460,234 (47.85%)
Others: 9,601 (1.00%)
McManus: We are able to project the Natural State for Governor Baker. Once a pretty strongly Democratic state, it has not voted Democratic since 1996 and fastly trended to be one of the most GOP states in the Union. This trend has been almost completely eroded, as it is voting for Baker by a similar margin as it did for Bush in 2000.
WASHINGTON - 61% reporting
Manchin/Klobuchar: 1,036,021 (50.76%)
Baker/Sandoval: 980,909 (48.06%)
Others: 24,031 (1.18%)
McManus: Like Arkansas, Washington appears to have largely reverted to a margin like 2000. It has trended strongly Democratic in recent years, but never voted as strongly Democratic as many other strong Democratic states have. While Baker failed to flip the Evergreen State, his performance here might be a bright sign for future GOP candidates.
McManus: Baker is currently up 7, 245-238, with 55 electoral votes remaining uncalled. No clear winner is in sight, as the remaining states are very tight and calling them is too risky.
Baker isn’t winning Oregon. If Vermont, Mass, Maryland and Washington are all staying Democratic, so is Oregon.
No... Oregon is far less D than those states, and if Washington State is within 2% I don't see how Baker doesn't win Oregon.
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