Alternate Electoral Maps II

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And here's a 5%(?) swing to Obama '08. again taking 5% from McCain and giving 5% to Obama.

DFRGEyg.jpg
 
Interesting, I went through the results, and Obama two of Nebraska's CDs in this scenario. Other states that swung to Obama on a 10% swing:

Montana, Arizona, Missouri, both Dakotas, Georgia, and South Carolina. Really surprised at that last one, although Obama taking 2 of NE's 5 EVs was also very surprising.
 
Obama picks up Missouri and Montana, if I am correct. I think that he also narrowly wins Georgia as well. Any other states that flip? Which ones are close?
no just missouri and montana

if it was a 10% swing (which he could've accidentally done in that map) obama'd win georgia, nebraska's 1st, both the dakotas, south carolina, and arizona
 

shiftygiant

Gone Fishin'
It would be far easier to visualise the nth county level map if it was accompanied with a state level map, instead of leaving it to the reader to just take a punt at guessing what the results would be.
 
It is a 10% swing. +5 for Obama and -5 for McCain.

It seems that there are two competing definitions of the word "swing", unfortunately and confusingly. The definition that has references attached (see post #3930), however, is contrary to the definition you are relying on. Let's agree to go with the reference-supported definition. According to that definition, "+5 for Obama and -5 for McCain" *is* a 5% swing.

To be honest, I myself was under the impression that "swing" meant what you are taking it to mean. That's the way bridge players use the term. But I guess political scientists use the definition in Post #3930.
 
That's a 5% swing.

From Wikipedia - "If Party One's vote rises by 4 points and Party Two's vote falls 5 points, the swing is 4.5 points (Party 2 to Party 1)."

From the Swingometer section of the BBC's Election 2010 website -

"HOW SWING WORKS
Swing is a shorthand way for showing the change in the share of the vote, usually between two parties over two separate elections. The calculation is simple.
Step 1. Add the rise in one party's share in the vote to the fall in the second party's share of the vote.
Step 2. Divide your figure by two. The resulting figure is the swing."

@Tex Arkana, that's how you calculate the swing.

It is a 10% swing. +5 for Obama and -5 for McCain.

Hence, that's a 5% swing.
 

Deleted member 83898

@TimTurner

I realize this is a really crude way of determining things, but here’s the 30 most populous countries in the world, their proportion of the world population, and which party they voted for.

China - 18.3% - Liberal
India - 17.5% - Conservative
US - 4.3% - Conservative
Indonesia - 3.5% - Liberal
Brazil - 2.8% - Liberal
Pakistan - 2.8% - Conservative
Nigeria - 2.6% - Conservative
Bangladesh - 2.2% - NDP
Russia - 1.9% - Conservative
Japan - 1.7% - Conservative
Mexico - 1.6% - NDP
Philippines - 1.4% - Liberal
Egypt - 1.3% - Conservative
Ethiopia - 1.2% - Liberal
Vietnam - 1.2% - Liberal
Germany - 1.1% - Conservative
Congo - 1.1% - Conservative
Iran - 1.1% - Conservative
Turkey - 1.1% - Conservative
Thailand - 0.9% - Conservative
UK - 0.9% - Conservative
France - 0.9% - Liberal
Italy - 0.8% - NDP
South Africa - 0.8% - Liberal
Myanmar - 0.7% - Conservative
Tanzania - 0.7% - NDP
South Korea - 0.7% - Conservative
Kenya - 0.7% - Liberal
Colombia - 0.7% - Conservative
Spain - 0.6% - Conservative

These 30 countries comprise about 77% of the world’s population.

Results (defined as % of world population belonging to countries where Party X won at least a plurality of ridings) by party based on countries comprising 77% of the world’s population (77% of ridings reporting):

Conservatives: 41%
Liberals: 30.8%
NDP: 5.3%
Awaiting Results: 28.9%

Party standings as a % of currently-reported results (as a % of 77%):

Conservatives: 53.18%
Liberals: 39.95%
NDP: 6.87%

So, while I can’t yet conclude that the Conservatives will have a majority (because 1> my interpretation of the map can’t account for the results within countries, which is important in large plurality-won countries such as China and India, because 2> 23% of the ridings have still yet to report, and because 3> my methods are, in general, quite crude and rudimentary), I am pretty confident in predicting that the Conservatives will form the next government, whether majority or minority.

Also, my results are completely meaningless if that cyan/light-blue (as seen in India) is supposed to be the Bloc instead of the Cons.
 

fashbasher

Banned
@TimTurner

I realize this is a really crude way of determining things, but here’s the 30 most populous countries in the world, their proportion of the world population, and which party they voted for.

China - 18.3% - Liberal
India - 17.5% - Conservative
US - 4.3% - Conservative
Indonesia - 3.5% - Liberal
Brazil - 2.8% - Liberal
Pakistan - 2.8% - Conservative
Nigeria - 2.6% - Conservative
Bangladesh - 2.2% - NDP
Russia - 1.9% - Conservative
Japan - 1.7% - Conservative
Mexico - 1.6% - NDP
Philippines - 1.4% - Liberal
Egypt - 1.3% - Conservative
Ethiopia - 1.2% - Liberal
Vietnam - 1.2% - Liberal
Germany - 1.1% - Conservative
Congo - 1.1% - Conservative
Iran - 1.1% - Conservative
Turkey - 1.1% - Conservative
Thailand - 0.9% - Conservative
UK - 0.9% - Conservative
France - 0.9% - Liberal
Italy - 0.8% - NDP
South Africa - 0.8% - Liberal
Myanmar - 0.7% - Conservative
Tanzania - 0.7% - NDP
South Korea - 0.7% - Conservative
Kenya - 0.7% - Liberal
Colombia - 0.7% - Conservative
Spain - 0.6% - Conservative

These 30 countries comprise about 77% of the world’s population.

Results (defined as % of world population belonging to countries where Party X won at least a plurality of ridings) by party based on countries comprising 77% of the world’s population (77% of ridings reporting):

Conservatives: 41%
Liberals: 30.8%
NDP: 5.3%
Awaiting Results: 28.9%

Party standings as a % of currently-reported results (as a % of 77%):

Conservatives: 53.18%
Liberals: 39.95%
NDP: 6.87%

So, while I can’t yet conclude that the Conservatives will have a majority (because 1> my interpretation of the map can’t account for the results within countries, which is important in large plurality-won countries such as China and India, because 2> 23% of the ridings have still yet to report, and because 3> my methods are, in general, quite crude and rudimentary), I am pretty confident in predicting that the Conservatives will form the next government, whether majority or minority.

Also, my results are completely meaningless if that cyan/light-blue (as seen in India) is supposed to be the Bloc instead of the Cons.

You are spending a lot of time analyzing what I admit is a borderline shitpost. clicks like button
 
assuming we use the 7.6 billion as a marker, and we give the UN Congress, say, 3,000 seats, that means each district has roughly 2,533,333 people in it. We can use this to calculate how many seats each nation has. The proposed UN Congress would definitely need an upper house similar to the Senate in America in order to protect the views of smaller nations. Let's give that house 390 seats, with two representatives from each nation. Each nation would be allowed to have their own domestic rules, but would be bound by rules made by the UN (like an uber-EU).

This could be a cool concept, and could actually happen in the future.

I may make a map on this if you guys would be interested in seeing it, it would take alot of research tho
 
assuming we use the 7.6 billion as a marker, and we give the UN Congress, say, 3,000 seats, that means each district has roughly 2,533,333 people in it. We can use this to calculate how many seats each nation has. The proposed UN Congress would definitely need an upper house similar to the Senate in America in order to protect the views of smaller nations. Let's give that house 390 seats, with two representatives from each nation. Each nation would be allowed to have their own domestic rules, but would be bound by rules made by the UN (like an uber-EU).

This could be a cool concept, and could actually happen in the future.

I may make a map on this if you guys would be interested in seeing it, it would take alot of research tho
Not exactly the same, but working out the Congressional delegations of each state is on the to-do list for my Ameriwank world Magnificent Destiny. TTLs US is the closest thing to a world state, with roughly 2.5 billion people.
 
Y'all want a challenge? The year is 2000, the POD is John Hickenlooper runs for and wins his mayoral seat 2 years previously

The ticket?

Businessman Donald J. Trump (D-NY)/Mayor John Hickenlooper (D-CO) vs. Fmr. Vice-President Dan Quayle (R-IN)/Senator Dick Cheney (R-WY)
 
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