In 2016 they would’ve likely won I agree, but the democrats are not typically the brightest when it comes to picking candidates. After an extremely right wing administration, they will (inaccurately) assume America wants a moderate (Reagan to Clinton for example )
Alternate Electoral Maps II
- Thread starter Aaaaasima
- Start date
- Status
I'm a bit more optimistic I think the Democrats are becoming more populist, look at the rising support for single-payer for example. The Democratic Party won't be going back to the Clintons and the 90s.
Kick
2016 if only non-whites could vote. obviously Clinton wins every state, although Oklahoma is surprisingly close.
Clinton's a moderate in the sense that's she pissed off the left to the extream that she lost a lot of voters who didn't switch sides but stayed home or didn't help campaign or donate like they did for Obama hence losing by just 80k votes in three states
You mean if non-whites were tied, or if the national popular vote was tied?
2020 election : Battle of the Silver Fox VP's.
Trump is forced out in April of 2019 by a vote of 236 in the house before he can be tried in the senate he resigns citing mounting heart issues and cedes his presidency to Pence. Former Ohio Governor John Kasich is confermed as VP by a vote of 76 to 24. after the Dems retake the House at 221 to 214 and the senate breaks even.
The Senate is split in January 2021 with 50-50, with pick ups in Maine from a retired Collins and a defeated Gardner in Colorado. And a healthy majority in the house of 239 to 196. Joe Biden and Jeff Merkely win a narrow and hard won victory against Mike Pence and John Kasich. The Dems win 279 ECV to 259 for the republicans. The popular vote sits at 64,452,921 or 50% for Biden-Merkely to 63,208,992 or 48.9% for Pence-Kasich. A victory of 1,243,929 votes. Third parties get a mesily 1%
Close states
New Hampshire 6.9
Michigan 6.8
Colorado 5.3
Virgina 4.8
Nevada 3.7
Pennsylvania 2.6
Wisconsin 0.6
Florida -0.1
North Carolina -0.8
Iowa -2.8
Ohio -3.5
Arizona -5.8
Trump is forced out in April of 2019 by a vote of 236 in the house before he can be tried in the senate he resigns citing mounting heart issues and cedes his presidency to Pence. Former Ohio Governor John Kasich is confermed as VP by a vote of 76 to 24. after the Dems retake the House at 221 to 214 and the senate breaks even.
The Senate is split in January 2021 with 50-50, with pick ups in Maine from a retired Collins and a defeated Gardner in Colorado. And a healthy majority in the house of 239 to 196. Joe Biden and Jeff Merkely win a narrow and hard won victory against Mike Pence and John Kasich. The Dems win 279 ECV to 259 for the republicans. The popular vote sits at 64,452,921 or 50% for Biden-Merkely to 63,208,992 or 48.9% for Pence-Kasich. A victory of 1,243,929 votes. Third parties get a mesily 1%
Close states
New Hampshire 6.9
Michigan 6.8
Colorado 5.3
Virgina 4.8
Nevada 3.7
Pennsylvania 2.6
Wisconsin 0.6
Florida -0.1
North Carolina -0.8
Iowa -2.8
Ohio -3.5
Arizona -5.8
I'm going to guess blue for the Democrats and red for the Republicans.
I have a question, related to your previous scenario (if in 2016 demographic groups had voted as they did in 1964). What would the county map have looked like in that scenario?2016 if only non-whites could vote. obviously Clinton wins every state, although Oklahoma is surprisingly close.
It's not exactly Republicans v. Democrats, but it's definitely an alignment. Maybe this will help: https://www.270towin.com/maps/vV40Y
It would probably be similar to 1964 on the county level as well. Trump probably wins ~800 counties in that scenario. I can work on the exact map maybe starting Wednesday.
Gentleman Biaggi
Banned
Alaska has always been a key state for the Citizens of Liberty and the Conservative Party, but in recent years, a push for independence has grown. In 2014, Todd Palin announced his run under the Alaskan Independence Party. However, Palin's more right-wing positons turned some off from his candidacy. However, Palin's choice of Moderate Conservative Ray Metcalfe caused more popularity from moderate conservatives, and he was nominated in alliances by both the Citizens of Liberty and Conservative Party. After the success of Palin's campaign, Unionists in Alaska became quite worried. In a hurry they nominated Bill Walker under the Unify Alaska ticket, with an alliance with the Alaskan Liberal-Green Alliance and the flailing Alaskan Progressive Party. While Walker ran a moderately good campaign, large amounts of support for Independence caused him to lose all counties outside of the Unionist Panhandle. In the end, Alaska was left looking towards Independence, and the US was wondering how to stop it.
Todd Palin/Ray Metcalfe (Alaskan Independence/Citizens of Liberty/Conservative Coalition) 60.3% PV
Bill Walker/Dennis Egan (Unify Alaska/Alaskan Liberal-Green Alliance/Alaskan Progressive Party Coalition) 39.5% PV
Todd Palin/Ray Metcalfe (Alaskan Independence/Citizens of Liberty/Conservative Coalition) 60.3% PV
Bill Walker/Dennis Egan (Unify Alaska/Alaskan Liberal-Green Alliance/Alaskan Progressive Party Coalition) 39.5% PV
Hillary vs Trump rematch(November 8, 2017)
Using this as a source: https://www.businessinsider.com.au/trump-approval-rating-every-state-gallup-2017-7?r=US&IR=
Trump wins scenario
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/w...ump-still-beats-clinton-43-40/article/2621016
President Donald Trump/Mike Pence-Republican: 318 EV 46.68%
Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine-Democratic: 220 EV 44.87%
Gary Johnson/William Weld-Libertarian: 0 EV 5.17%
Clinton win scenario
https://mic.com/articles/177281/don...americans-want-president-impeached#.iIw5HzAUs
Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine-Democratic: 319 EV 49.99%
President Donald Trump/Mike Pence-Republican: 219 EV 44.45%
Using this as a source: https://www.businessinsider.com.au/trump-approval-rating-every-state-gallup-2017-7?r=US&IR=
Trump wins scenario
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/w...ump-still-beats-clinton-43-40/article/2621016
President Donald Trump/Mike Pence-Republican: 318 EV 46.68%
Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine-Democratic: 220 EV 44.87%
Gary Johnson/William Weld-Libertarian: 0 EV 5.17%
Clinton win scenario
https://mic.com/articles/177281/don...americans-want-president-impeached#.iIw5HzAUs
Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine-Democratic: 319 EV 49.99%
President Donald Trump/Mike Pence-Republican: 219 EV 44.45%
I REALLY doubt he'd do any better in the EC then he did in November 2016 , not after the Russia investigation and the total failure to pass any legislation. Clinton would probably win by 3-4 points with at lest 300 ECV but no more then 332.
Geeen Sanders, Blue Biden
2020 Battle of the Septuagenarians
Biden 77
Sanders 79
( Pence is 61 by the time of the Republican Convention in Los Vegas of August 2020.
Biden wins 20,194,027 votes
Sanders wins 20,036,990 votes
Biden wins 157,037 more votes
Biden wins 2,298 Delegates +126 UPD
Sanders wins 2,096 Delegates +73 UPD
Others
Moulton ( dropped out after Super Tuesday) 85
O'Malley ( dropped out after Neveda )
12
In an appeasement to Sanders supporters and the left Biden Picks Jeff Merkely as VP.
- Status