Alternate Electoral Maps II

[Lost the game]

Pennsylbama gonna Pennsylbama

ITTL is there any movement in Philadelphia and its suburbs to secede and form its own state? I feel like ITTL MontCo, Delco, Chester and Bucks counties, along with Philadelphia, have absolutely zero reason to still be a part of PA. Even more than OTL it seems like they'd be the ones carrying the state economy and being shat on for their trouble

 

[Gian]

@Uhura's Mazda - Why don't you do the same for the 2017 election?

 

[Mumby]

1997 General Election if every minor party candidate who saved his deposit (i.e. won more than 5%) magically won a seat.

The Referendum Party obviously does very well, mostly taking Shire Tory seats with a couple of Labour and Lib Dem seats into the mix (notably, Lib Dem leader Paddy Ashdown is defeated). Their Eurosceptic competitors in UKIP, however, only take a single seat, with Nigel Farage taking Salisbury. The far right also does well: the National Democrats unseat the Speaker, Betty Boothroyd, while the BNP seize Dewsbury, Bethnal Green and Bow, and Poplar and Canning Town.

The Continuity Liberals gain Liverpool West Derby. They also saved their deposit in Bethnal Green and Bow (the only time two minor party candidates saved deposits in the same constituency) but I've given it to the BNP, who got 7.5% to the Liberals' 6.6%.

I've grouped all the far-left parties together: Tommy Sheridan of the Scottish Socialist Alliance defeats Labour in Glasgow Pollok, expelled former Militant MP Dave Nellist wins back Coventry South, and Arthur Scargill's Socialist Labour Party wins Cardiff Central, Newport East and East Ham.

View attachment 349696

absolutely electric

is there seat totals for that

 

[Alex Richards]

@Uhura's Mazda - Why don't you do the same for the 2017 election?

2015 would be more interesting just on the basis that the snap election prevented a lot of microparties standing.

 

[Uhura's Mazda]

@Uhura's Mazda - Why don't you do the same for the 2017 election?

It would be possible - every election in between would get really silly because of all the UKIP and BNP results, but 2017 would obviously be mostly sane.

absolutely electric

is there seat totals for that

Forgot to work it out as I went along, so this may not be right.

Labour - 404 (-14)
Conservative - 134 (-27)
Referendum - 42 (+42)
Liberal Democrats - 40 (-6)
SNP - 6 (-)
Plaid Cymru - 4 (-)
British National Party - 3 (+3)
Socialist Labour Party - 3 (+3)
UKIP - 1 (+1)
Liberal - 1 (+1)
Socialist Alternative - 1 (+1)
Scottish Socialist Alliance - 1 (+1)
National Democrats - 1 (+1)
Martin Bell - 1 (-)

 

[Uhura's Mazda]

2015 would be more interesting just on the basis that the snap election prevented a lot of microparties standing.

Yeah but OTOH 2015 would have UKIP on 560+ seats, so it, er, wouldn't.

And if you discount UKIP and Green in 2015 to make it more interesting, that actually only leaves three valid seats.

 

[Keeganc2020]

I meant that more as the way that college students boycotted South African goods and what not, not that they though of it as a Prahar state

 

[Mumby]

It would be possible - every election in between would get really silly because of all the UKIP and BNP results, but 2017 would obviously be mostly sane.

Forgot to work it out as I went along, so this may not be right.

Labour - 404 (-14)
Conservative - 134 (-27)
Referendum - 42 (+42)
Liberal Democrats - 40 (-6)
SNP - 6 (-)
Plaid Cymru - 4 (-)
British National Party - 3 (+3)
Socialist Labour Party - 3 (+3)
UKIP - 1 (+1)
Liberal - 1 (+1)
Socialist Alternative - 1 (+1)
Scottish Socialist Alliance - 1 (+1)
National Democrats - 1 (+1)
Martin Bell - 1 (-)

sicc

I'm guessing that in that world, it would take a Canada-ish turn with Referendum and the Tories eventually merging.

 

[Keeganc2020]

Is there still a federal house and senate
Also does the Bill of rights not really apply to all states now ? As a queer progressive I find your timeline honestly pretty terrifying considering how few states I'd actually be welcomed in. I'd be in Saratoga , Cincinnati ( Ohio ) which I would imagine would be quite republican with labor controlling the cities of Cincinnati and Dayton and maybe a few Democrats thrown in there as well considering the southern flavored of south west Ohio.

 

[Uhura's Mazda]

sicc

I'm guessing that in that world, it would take a Canada-ish turn with Referendum and the Tories eventually merging.

Yeah, if you want to be boring. My headcanon was a scrabble of splintering factions in the aftermath of Goldsmith's death, with a lot of them joining John Redwood's Tories and the hardliners vaguely sauntering towards UKIP.

 

[Mumby]

Yeah, if you want to be boring. My headcanon was a scrabble of splintering factions in the aftermath of Goldsmith's death, with a lot of them joining John Redwood's Tories and the hardliners vaguely sauntering towards UKIP.

alright david no need for this aggression

John Redwood's Tories tho

 

[Keeganc2020]

2020 states and counties that change
Florida
-1.2 to 1.5
+2.7 D swing

Pennsylvania
-0.7 to 2.2
+ 2.9 D swing

Michigan
-0.3 to 3.5
+3.8 D swing

North Carolina
-3.6 to 0.2
+3.8 D swing

Arizona
-3.5 to 0.4
+ 3.9 D swing

Maine
2.9 to 7.8
+4.9 D swing

 

[Tex Arkana]

2020 states and counties that change
Florida
-1.2 to 1.5
+2.7 D swing

Pennsylvania
-0.7 to 2.2
+ 2.9 D swing

Michigan
-0.3 to 3.5
+3.8 D swing

North Carolina
-3.6 to 0.2
+3.8 D swing

Arizona
-3.5 to 0.4
+ 3.9 D swing

Maine
2.9 to 7.8
+4.9 D swing

If a Democrat wins in 2020, these results seem like what the actual results would be. I'm curious, how well do you see the D nominee doing in Virginia and Georgia?

 

[Tex Arkana]

2024 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION RESULTS -


Background: Donald Trump narrowly won re-election in 2020, winning the Electoral College 295-243 (He flipped New Hampshire from his '16 results but lost Michigan), but losing the popular vote by 2.5%. in 2024, Mike Pence was seen as the Front-Runner and easily wrapped up the GOP nomination in April against his main opponents, Senator Ted Cruz and Former Ohio Governor John Kasich. on the Democratic side, the field was large and somewhat chaotic, with 12 candidates still in the running by Iowa, but eventually Texas Senator Beto O'Rourke wrapped up the nomination due to strong margins in the South, West, and rust belt. Mike Pence chose Former Ambassador to the UN and South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley as his running mate, while O'Rourke chose Georgia Governor Stacey Abrams as his running mate. Most polls throughout the campaign had O'Rourke leading Pence by 10-15%, and on election day he won decisively over Pence. This was the first election since 1976 where Texas went Democratic, albeit by a razor thin margin of .09%, while this was the first election since 1996 where Arizona went Democratic and the first since 1992 where Georgia and Montana went Democratic. Turnout was very high, at 62.3%, and Hispanic turnout was especially high due to O'Rourke's strong appeals to the Hispanic community as well as his accomplishments on immigration as Senator from Texas. Pence claimed during the campaign that the polls were wrong, citing Trump's two upset victories, but in the end the polls were dead-on, as O'Rourke won the popular vote 56-43%.

County map coming soon.

 

[Tex Arkana]

2024 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION RESULTS -


Background: Donald Trump narrowly won re-election in 2020, winning the Electoral College 295-243 (He flipped New Hampshire from his '16 results but lost Michigan), but losing the popular vote by 2.5%. in 2024, Mike Pence was seen as the Front-Runner and easily wrapped up the GOP nomination in April against his main opponents, Senator Ted Cruz and Former Ohio Governor John Kasich. on the Democratic side, the field was large and somewhat chaotic, with 12 candidates still in the running by Iowa, but eventually Texas Senator Beto O'Rourke wrapped up the nomination due to strong margins in the South, West, and rust belt. Mike Pence chose Former Ambassador to the UN and South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley as his running mate, while O'Rourke chose Georgia Governor Stacey Abrams as his running mate. Most polls throughout the campaign had O'Rourke leading Pence by 10-15%, and on election day he won decisively over Pence. This was the first election since 1976 where Texas went Democratic, albeit by a razor thin margin of .09%, while this was the first election since 1996 where Arizona went Democratic and the first since 1992 where Georgia and Montana went Democratic. Turnout was very high, at 62.3%, and Hispanic turnout was especially high due to O'Rourke's strong appeals to the Hispanic community as well as his accomplishments on immigration as Senator from Texas. Pence claimed during the campaign that the polls were wrong, citing Trump's two upset victories, but in the end the polls were dead-on, as O'Rourke won the popular vote 56-43%.

County map coming soon.

The county map.

 

[Keeganc2020]

Virgina seems like it's a permanent blue state albiete close - not California by any means but no flordia either. Virginia like California moved from being a deep red republican state to a blue democratic state mainly due to a very highly educated population and the cultural shift as of late of better educated people usually voting for democrats as well as more immigration but nothing like what happened to California in the 90's. Virgina is a predictably blue state much more like Connecticut or Maryland of the North Atlantic megalopolis then it's fellow southern states of the old confederacy. I see it never getting less the +2 D but never more then +8 D either. In 2020 I think the Dem nominee will get at lest what they host in 2016 plus a point or two. Now let me get to Georgia...

 

[Keeganc2020]

Georgia looks like its somewhere between the new North Carolina ( I. E. A perpetually close but almost ALMOST always breaking for the republicans) and a new Florida the unquestioned king of swing states.... if Atlanta becomes the new Austin of the south east and the black vote turns out better it can elect more democratic senators and governors and congressmembers ... president eh give it a few more years ...

 

[fashbasher]

POD: In 1973, the Black Panthers, White Panthers, and Gray Panthers merge into a single organization (the Panther Movement) that acts as a left-wing pressure group and "primaries party" within the Democratic Party, pushing for a left-wing economic and criminal justice system as well as political reforms to encourage better representation of minorities and small parties. Unlike some other far-left organizations, they are more willing to accept self-segregation so long as it occurs within a progressive and egalitarian economic model, citing the Soviet Socialist Republics as a model. After helping the Dems win in 1976, they are able to negotiate a reform of the Electoral College (as well as several state legislatures) to use either proportional, instant runoff, or mixed-member majoritarian systems in exchange for revisions to the Civil Rights Act that focus more on correcting institutional racism and less on "badgering community organizations, white or black" - creating the institution of a Community Solidarity Corporation that has some leeway to discriminate if it donates a majority of its profit to needy individuals within the community. However, the Dems/Panthers' recruitment efforts among the urban and Appalachian white working class meet with a major pushback from middle-class whites, especially suburban homeowners and small Plains farmers. Urban, working-class whites are seen as "muscle for the Black Panthers" and class tensions become even greater than in OTL. By 2016, the landscape of elections looks radically different than what we'd recognize. Although the Panthers are only the plurality party in Michigan and DC, they have played a crucial role in transforming the Great Lakes, as well as Maine and even parts of Appalachia and the Mississippi Delta, into states where the Democrats are competitive, if not dominant. In contrast, the well-educated suburbanites of Virginia, Maryland, Connecticut, New Hampshire, and even Massachusetts are repulsed by the Democratic-Panther Coalition, and the two trade Electoral College victories with consistent regularity. Because of the proportional nature of the system, Republicans are able to extract large amounts of votes from the politically mixed states of California, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Illinois, and New York (all states with a large and multiethnic working class as well as major areas of bougie suburbs and family farms) while Democrats face a worse position in terms of gaining minority seats with only 3 plurality-Republican swing states (although one of those is Texas, the second-largest electoral prize, the others are RI and Missouri - Maryland is miscolored on the legend).

 

[MoralisticCommunist]

You know you have created a good series when people are arguing over how to correctly interpret it.

Anyway, I was going through your old posts, and even though you have states governed by left-right coalitions, there is no true European Style Grand Coalition that keeps out significant (40+ish) minor parties, and betrays and satisfies its voters at the same time. The closest you got I think is Oregon with an upstart leftish party forming a coalition with the Republicans and New York with Business and Labour in the same Federalist blanket - though New York was designed to showcase tribalism rather then left-right cooperation. Is this simply not an option in the Seventh Party System, or have we not gotten to the state that will show this off yet? If its going to come, then I can't wait to see it.

Haha, true, true. And yeah, I hadn't really thought of including such a state where an eternal grand coalition just holds onto power as so much of American politics in my timeline has reduced to tribal voting as various groups try to protect their own interests. Though I will look into the idea and see if it fits with any the remaining states that I have yet to sketch out. And with Oregon the Science party was actually designed to be a centrist and technocratic party, which while containing a socially liberal aspect is still concerned above all us with pragmatism and a symbiotic merging of business and state. And definitely, even though New York only has three main parties its tribal divisions are ironically one of the highest, covered up by the fact that the three parties compete over the endorsements of the smaller parties to form broad coalitions.

ITTL is there any movement in Philadelphia and its suburbs to secede and form its own state? I feel like ITTL MontCo, Delco, Chester and Bucks counties, along with Philadelphia, have absolutely zero reason to still be a part of PA. Even more than OTL it seems like they'd be the ones carrying the state economy and being shat on for their trouble

Funnily enough, I considered put in a sentence at the end of my piece to mention how Philadelphia was starting an independence movement to form its own state, and definitely if I decide to do any future election map for Pennsylvania I will make sure to take note of that fact.

I meant that more as the way that college students boycotted South African goods and what not, not that they though of it as a Prahar state

Is there still a federal house and senate
Also does the Bill of rights not really apply to all states now ? As a queer progressive I find your timeline honestly pretty terrifying considering how few states I'd actually be welcomed in. I'd be in Saratoga , Cincinnati ( Ohio ) which I would imagine would be quite republican with labor controlling the cities of Cincinnati and Dayton and maybe a few Democrats thrown in there as well considering the southern flavored of south west Ohio.

There definitely are some radicals who boycott American goods, but the EU is fairly tolerant business wise and even trades with the USSR on occasion, so that movement is a rather minor one. There is mostly definitely a federal house and I'm leaning towards there being a federal senate, though I'm not sure if it will have the same structure as OTL. And while the Bill of Rights does exist, LGBT issues are still treated with the same ambivalence as they were in the 90s OTL, and they still face discrimination in many states. Saratoga in particular is unfortunately not the best place for LGBT people in the Seventh Party System because it's under a Social Credit led coalition. Also LGBT are also met with ambivalence by both Labor and the Republicans so the majority of states in this America just have civil unions. But most progressive states such as Alta California have legalized it, and New York did too after the Liberal party gained power in 2009. So in general this timeline's America is still beyond on social issues but there are still a few progressive states which have a modern day California levels of tolerance.

 

[killertahu22]

Virgina seems like it's a permanent blue state albiete close - not California by any means but no flordia either. Virginia like California moved from being a deep red republican state to a blue democratic state mainly due to a very highly educated population and the cultural shift as of late of better educated people usually voting for democrats as well as more immigration but nothing like what happened to California in the 90's. Virgina is a predictably blue state much more like Connecticut or Maryland of the North Atlantic megalopolis then it's fellow southern states of the old confederacy. I see it never getting less the +2 D but never more then +8 D either. In 2020 I think the Dem nominee will get at lest what they host in 2016 plus a point or two. Now let me get to Georgia...

Wooo evolution!