Alternate Cold War proxy wars and conflicts
- Thread starter Reflection
- Start date
India and Pakistan were supported by the Cold War superpowers. Of course, they're perfectly capable of finding their own reasons to wage war, but any one of these wars could have taken on the tone of a proxy war between the superpowers.
During the Cultural Revolution in China, there were occasional skirmishes between PLA troops and border guards in British Hong Kong. Of course, anyone who controls China could take Hong Kong within hours. But, we could imagine such skirmishes continuing on-and-off. Perhaps Mao wants to prove to the Communist world that he's the real anti-imperialist by staging simultaneous incidents with British-controlled Hong Kong and US-backed Taiwan.
During the Cultural Revolution in China, there were occasional skirmishes between PLA troops and border guards in British Hong Kong. Of course, anyone who controls China could take Hong Kong within hours. But, we could imagine such skirmishes continuing on-and-off. Perhaps Mao wants to prove to the Communist world that he's the real anti-imperialist by staging simultaneous incidents with British-controlled Hong Kong and US-backed Taiwan.
Speaking of India, what if the U.S. actually came into the aid of Pakistan during the 1971 war? If I remember correctly, a USN carrier strike group was in Indian Ocean and Nixon supported Pakistan. There was also this issue in 1965 when Indonesia planned to send submarines to Pakistan.
The U.S. definitely would come to the aid of the British to defend the Hong Kong. Any PLA crossing would be hammered by the U.S. Navy. One carrier could cover the entirety of Hong Kong. At the time of the Cultural Revolution, China was just as poor as how Sudan is today.
The Soviets had a submarine that confronted the USS Enterprise in the Bay of Bengal. That was one of the underrated moments of the Cold War. That's a big reason why, to this day, Russia and India are close partners, even when their governments are the antitheses of the ideologies they professed back then.
Mao would just content himself with taking pot shots at the Gurkhas manning the border, with an occasional breach. That actually happened during the Cultural Revolution, and Mao ended up purging a general who suggested actually taking Hong Kong. He could continue these skirmishes purely for propaganda purposes, but no further. Exports of food and fresh water to Hong Kong were the PRC's few reliable sources of western currency, so he had an interest in keeping these going.
He would use the skirmishes against British Hong Kong, US-backed Taiwan, and the Soviets on the Amur, to contrast himself with the Soviets. The Soviets were cowards, because they were content with peaceful coexistence with the West. Meanwhile, Mao's PRC is the real vanguard of international communism, since it was willing to directly confront the British imperialists, US-backed reactionary Chiang regime on Taiwan, and the Soviet revisionists. Sometimes simultaneously!
Australia nearly went to war with Indonesia in 1960 over Dutch New Guinea. It didn't though 'cause Washington was not willing to back them or the Dutch. They preferred to court Djarkata so as to allow free passage of their SLBM carrying submarines stated in Guam and gain free access to the Indian Ocean to allow them to launch their Polaris missiles against Soviet central Asia. We again nearly went to war in 1975 but because of the divisions cause in Australia society in Vietnam, refrained from declaring war over East Timor. Then, we nearly finally went to war over East Timor again in 1999. So it seems we had the will but not necessarily the way to go to war.Could Australia have wound up in a war with Indonesia? It was already involved in small-scale activities against Indonesian troops during the Indonesian-Malaysia Confrontation, so I don't think it'd take much to see Aussies fighting Indonesia in a war that would probably become a second Vietnam.
An Indonesian-Australian conflict would be interesting. Both militaries are on-parr with each other.
As an Australian, I've always had a fascination with the idea, since it would be the third time in a century we'd be fighting a war near our soil.
It seems that it would become a stalemate. The ADF would have a hard time invading Indonesia because island hopping would be difficult and the narrow straits are killzones filled with anti-ship and anti-air missiles that would cause heavy losses to the RAN and RAAF. Meanwhile, Indonesia would also have a hard time invading Australia because it would need to project its naval and air forces into Australian coastal and air defenses. Of course, the Indonesians would not aim to conquer the entire continent. That's a nightmare scenario and the Indonesians know that. The Indonesians would probably stick to naval bombardments and air strikes. Urban warfare would be difficult too if the Indonesians would attempt at paradrop to a city let's say Darwin which is the closest major city in range. I have yet to research on MOUT capabilities of the TNI-AD.
As an Australian I would put my money on the ADF rather than TNI. The ADF has experience in large scale military operations whereas the TNI does not. We managed to pull together in a very short time our largest expeditionary force in out history in 1999 when we intervened in Timor. The Indonesians were frightened of conflict when Australia and withdraw, Higgle-piggledy from East Timor. I don't doubt that they can fight, if pushed but they failed in 1965 and again in 1999. In both cases the superior esprit-de-corps of the ADF was sufficient to scare them. The ADF is a superbly trained force and it shows. We taught the TNI in the 1990s how to conducted COIN operations and they still failed to learn what was necessary and apply it. In general the Australian Army is a superior force.
Any Indonesian attack against Australia would be limited in scope. Australia is a huge continent and only the Top End is close to Indonesia. Our main areas of population and industry is in the SE corner, the furthest from Indonesia. They could take Darwin but that would be about it. Some mine sites might be lost. They could not force a decision on Australia. The RAN and RAAF is better equipped and in greater numbers than the Indonesian navy and airforce. They might be able to make a surprise attack and land their forces but they would never be able to supply or reinforce them.
