Alternate causes of WWI

Captain Jack

Lets say that Franz Ferdinand is not assassinated in 1914.

What would be the likely and/or possible causes of WWI(I am of the opinion that war at that point was basically inevitable)?

Also would the two sides be the same as OTL?
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
I'm not convinced that war was inevitable, for nothing in history is. However, it was obviously pretty likely...

As far as an alternate cause, it's hard to say for sure. You had the two flare-ups over Morocco before the war, and more than a few crises in the Balkans. Plenty of possible flashpoints in both Africa and Asia as well.
 
The Kiat

The Kiat

Yet another War of Succession? I know Monarchs didn't have the same level of clout they did in the 18th Century (and I seriously doubt France would care a fraction as much), but shifting alliance could disrupt the balance of power.
 

Snake Featherston

Banned
In my ATL WWI happens in 1916 because the crown prince of Bavaria is assassinated by extremists, triggering the alliance systems that pit the UK, Germany, and Italy against an alliance of Russia, Austria-Hungary, and France. As one might imagine the alternate alliance system means the war is rather shorter than IOTL.
 

Flying Dutchman

All sides in WW1 where looking for a fight. If not for the assasination of the Archduke, one of the other sides would take some triviality and blow it out of proportion. Perhaps the French will protest about a German marching band in Alsace-Lorraine playing too loud, perhaps the Black Hands woulds an Austrian mailman, perhaps the Kaisers starts lecturing the Czar on his treatment of the Poles.
IMO, anything could have ignited a war by this time.
 
The Kiat

The Kiat

Beedok said:
The French might decide to simply make a mockery of it by supporting someone with an incredibly weak claim.
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I find it hard to believe France of 1914 would even get involved with Monarchal things. The last time they did, the Prussians knocked down their front door and the German Empire was established. Ok, perhaps an exaggeration, but why would a Republic care beyond such a succession shifting alliances?

Unless.... they wanted to put a weak monarch on some throne or another to tilt the balance in their favor.... even then it's more of a case of the country being ran the way France would like than about if there is a king of not.
 

sendô

Anaxagoras said:
I'm not convinced that war was inevitable, for nothing in history is. However, it was obviously pretty likely...
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The Germans were spoiling for a war for some time, hence their massive build up of their Army and Navy. They wanted to challenge Britain for the position of pre-eminent world power. They were eager to do it sooner rather than later, because they knew they couldn't out produce both Britain and France over the long term, and they were eager to attack Russia before their Army reforms started to bear fruition in 1916.

Franz Ferdinand being assassinated was the straw that broke the camels back. Giving A-H carte blanch to do what they wanted in the Balkans and backing them all the way was what caused the war, directly at least.
 

Lt.Gen 767

Taking into account the German fears of Russia's growing power and the, frankly, explosive situation internal situation in Russia. I wouldn't be surprised if some time before 1920 their is unrest in Russia. German might then take advantage of Russia weakness dragging Europe into a general war.
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
sendô said:
The Germans were spoiling for a war for some time, hence their massive build up of their Army and Navy. They wanted to challenge Britain for the position of pre-eminent world power. They were eager to do it sooner rather than later, because they knew they couldn't out produce both Britain and France over the long term, and they were eager to attack Russia before their Army reforms started to bear fruition in 1916.
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And your last point is a major one. The Germans were well aware that if war did not take place before 1916, the Russians would be strong enough that any chance of a German victory would be minimal. Therefore, if a POD delays the outbreak of the war (Gavrilo Princip decides he doesn't want a sandwich, say) until after 1916, the Germans might be much more cautious in their foreign policy than was the case IOTL.

And I don't think it's quite accurate to say that the Germans were intent on challenging Britain for the position of world superpower. It really depending on what mood to Kaiser was in. Sometimes the Germans acted like they loved the British and wanted to give them a big hug. In the late 1890s, there were three more-or-less serious attempts to negotiate an alliance between Germany and Britain.
 
SavoyTruffle

SavoyTruffle

Anaxagoras said:
And your last point is a major one. The Germans were well aware that if war did not take place before 1916, the Russians would be strong enough that any chance of a German victory would be minimal. Therefore, if a POD delays the outbreak of the war (Gavrilo Princip decides he doesn't want a sandwich, say) until after 1916, the Germans might be much more cautious in their foreign policy than was the case IOTL.

And I don't think it's quite accurate to say that the Germans were intent on challenging Britain for the position of world superpower. It really depending on what mood to Kaiser was in. Sometimes the Germans acted like they loved the British and wanted to give them a big hug. In the late 1890s, there were three more-or-less serious attempts to negotiate an alliance between Germany and Britain.
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Best way to top dog status is to either topple the top dog or befriend it. Of course, Kaiser Wilhelm and Germany were as mercurial as Dwight Howard, but whatever.
 

Catspoke

1) Something in turkey, a revolt in Armenia, the Baghdad railway nearing completion, Russia concened that Turkey will get to strong and its now or never etc...
2) Albania, Serbia or Italy try to move in.
3) Another Boxer like incident in China
4) Germany tries to loot Portugese colonies
5) Any internal revolt, assasination requiring 1848 like interventions

There is no predestiny that war happens, as long as the great powers behave themselves, especially Germany, a world war can be avoided, if we can reach 1917 without incident, another 25 years of peace could happen easily.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
sendô said:
The Germans were spoiling for a war for some time, hence their massive build up of their Army and Navy. They wanted to challenge Britain for the position of pre-eminent world power. They were eager to do it sooner rather than later, because they knew they couldn't out produce both Britain and France over the long term, and they were eager to attack Russia before their Army reforms started to bear fruition in 1916.

Franz Ferdinand being assassinated was the straw that broke the camels back. Giving A-H carte blanch to do what they wanted in the Balkans and backing them all the way was what caused the war, directly at least.
Click to expand...

You have been reading a bit too much UK wartime propaganda. In 1905, when Russia was in chaos, the Germans looked at a preemptive war, but decided against it. After that, it was never seriously considered again, and we can debate how serious the German review was at this time since it was done at a very high level but only in the army and without the true detail work needed for the plan to be operational.

A series of crisis had lead to all the major land powers improving their army, including German. Some were real crisis with strategic interest, some were small things such as a single case of what we would now call statutory rape but then would not have been such a serious crime.

The Naval race is did not start to beat UK at sea, even thought it was seen that way by many people in the UK by the end. The UK had been having a series of Naval scares for 30+ years to get funding for the navy. Germany was a rising power, as was the USA. The UK reacted much differently to Germany than the USA efforts. The Boer war inflamed the German public. The Kaiser blunder diplomacy made things worse. The UK and Germany were very near a deal on the Naval issue prewar and were near on a deal to split up Portugal colonies in Africa.

The issue with Russia was much more complicated, and Germany/A-H would not be defenseless after 1917 as some claim. It would be more a matter of higher than desired taxes and 3 not 2 year conscription.
 

Catspoke

BlondieBC said:
You have been reading a bit too much UK wartime propaganda.
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Much of this impression of warmongering Germany, and is deserved, is during the OTL July 1914 crisis where it appears the path to war was encouraged/enabled by mostly German leadership.

Agree that Tirpitz never really wanted to fight England with his fleet.

Also agree that 1917+ Germany had little to fear from Russia, not sure if German leadership thought this way though.
 

Snake Featherston

Banned
BlondieBC said:
You have been reading a bit too much UK wartime propaganda. In 1905, when Russia was in chaos, the Germans looked at a preemptive war, but decided against it. After that, it was never seriously considered again, and we can debate how serious the German review was at this time since it was done at a very high level but only in the army and without the true detail work needed for the plan to be operational.

A series of crisis had lead to all the major land powers improving their army, including German. Some were real crisis with strategic interest, some were small things such as a single case of what we would now call statutory rape but then would not have been such a serious crime.

The Naval race is did not start to beat UK at sea, even thought it was seen that way by many people in the UK by the end. The UK had been having a series of Naval scares for 30+ years to get funding for the navy. Germany was a rising power, as was the USA. The UK reacted much differently to Germany than the USA efforts. The Boer war inflamed the German public. The Kaiser blunder diplomacy made things worse. The UK and Germany were very near a deal on the Naval issue prewar and were near on a deal to split up Portugal colonies in Africa.

The issue with Russia was much more complicated, and Germany/A-H would not be defenseless after 1917 as some claim. It would be more a matter of higher than desired taxes and 3 not 2 year conscription.
Click to expand...

Well, given Germany showed a much greater respect for Russian ability than reality warranted, would Germany see things the same way you do in 1917? Keep in mind that IOTL Germany expected to retreat all the way to the Vistula, not to fight an aggressive defense that produced something like OTL Tannenberg. Tannenberg, like 1940, completely upended Germany's views of its enemies.
 

Snake Featherston

Banned
Anaxagoras said:
And your last point is a major one. The Germans were well aware that if war did not take place before 1916, the Russians would be strong enough that any chance of a German victory would be minimal. Therefore, if a POD delays the outbreak of the war (Gavrilo Princip decides he doesn't want a sandwich, say) until after 1916, the Germans might be much more cautious in their foreign policy than was the case IOTL.

And I don't think it's quite accurate to say that the Germans were intent on challenging Britain for the position of world superpower. It really depending on what mood to Kaiser was in. Sometimes the Germans acted like they loved the British and wanted to give them a big hug. In the late 1890s, there were three more-or-less serious attempts to negotiate an alliance between Germany and Britain.
Click to expand...

To some extent I rather doubt that, but that's because of Russia's internal weaknesses. I highly doubt that another 3 years solve the immense number of problems the Nicholas II regime was facing. Russia's army being stronger really isn't going to be helping the political factor, given IOTL Russia actually did quite well militarily but its internal political weakness were the poisoned chalice. Russia had the opposite problem to Germany: militarily it was in a very good position, politically it was in a catastrophic one, Germany was in a very good political position pre-1914, but militarily in a catch-22.
 
Emperor Norton I

Emperor Norton I

Wasn't there an incident around 1911 that could have lead to war? It was something that's name ended with "Incident", though I can't recall it.
 
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