Alternate Causes of WWI

Rush Tarquin

Gone Fishin'
Continuing from a discussion in another thread, I'd like to know what specific event people think would be the most likely to spark WWI given the following scenario:

Turkey has a stronger navy and is able to repel the Italian invasion of Libya. This deters the Balkan states from declaring war on Turkey.
 
Can I just re-post what I put last time :eek:

Completey changes the world, I'd imagine Libya would get gobbled up by the British or French Empires eventualy.

No Ottoman collapse in the Balkans means that the states like Serbia who benefited from the war are far weaker and can get gobbled up in turn by the Hapsburgs (Who placed Imperialist ambitions that way after defeat in Italy and Germany), by that I mean creating protectorates and such in Serbia and Montenegro and sphere of influence on the rest of the Balkans. Russia as such doesn't create its Slavic alliances and as such don't come to blows with AH.

I'd imagine the great powers would come to blows eventualy however it would involve a stronger AH an Italy less willing to (and less capable of) being involved in a wider European war (Potential neutrality) Russia is weaker and the Ottomans are more powerful and more involved on the CP side. This combination has the potential for A CP victory TL and the inevitable Germany wank and Federalised A-H empire that follows.

As for specific event, as this war is more concentrated on Germany and Anglo-French rivalries I'd imagine it'd be a colonial incident (perhaps Morrocco). This TL doesn't nessisarily mean Russia is out as Germany saw 1916 as their last chance to take out the Romanovs before they became a superpower so maybe victory in the west and disaster in the East WW2 style, who knows? :rolleyes:

Regards Bobbis
 
Can I just re-post what I put last time :eek:

Completey changes the world, I'd imagine Libya would get gobbled up by the British or French Empires eventualy.

No Ottoman collapse in the Balkans means that the states like Serbia who benefited from the war are far weaker and can get gobbled up in turn by the Hapsburgs (Who placed Imperialist ambitions that way after defeat in Italy and Germany), by that I mean creating protectorates and such in Serbia and Montenegro and sphere of influence on the rest of the Balkans. Russia as such doesn't create its Slavic alliances and as such don't come to blows with AH.

I'd imagine the great powers would come to blows eventualy however it would involve a stronger AH an Italy less willing to (and less capable of) being involved in a wider European war (Potential neutrality) Russia is weaker and the Ottomans are more powerful and more involved on the CP side. This combination has the potential for A CP victory TL and the inevitable Germany wank and Federalised A-H empire that follows.

As for specific event, as this war is more concentrated on Germany and Anglo-French rivalries I'd imagine it'd be a colonial incident (perhaps Morrocco). This TL doesn't nessisarily mean Russia is out as Germany saw 1916 as their last chance to take out the Romanovs before they became a superpower so maybe victory in the west and disaster in the East WW2 style, who knows? :rolleyes:

Regards Bobbis

I don't think it's likely France or Britain would gobble up Libya by this late date. There's no purpose to doing so.

Serbia is still a contender for starting a European war. Anarchist terrorists are also a potential problem. Morocco is probably the only spot in Africa that could do it.
 

wormyguy

Banned
If Tsar Nicholas dies and his hemophilic son Alexei becomes Tsar, it could get ugly, especially given all the political radicalism in Russia at the time.
 

Rush Tarquin

Gone Fishin'
The thing with Morocco is that Germany had already signed a treaty recognising Morocco as a protectorate of France in exchange for Neukamerun. Would it just rescind that recognition?
 
In my An Alternate History of the Netherlands, the Great War was sparked by a succession crisis in the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth; with two contender to the thrown being relatives of the German Kaiser and Swedish King. It starts in 1913 and ends in 1916.
 
Russia is weaker

Why? The Generalstab were afraid they would be unbeatable by 1916. Obviously they were being pessimistic because they wanted a war, but nevertheless even with the rigours of that war Russia was in some ways stronger in 1916 than it was in 1914.

As to the topic, Bulgaria is a barrel of fun, what with Pirin Macedonia and western Thrace having an irredentist terror organisation which is also very influential in Sofia as their effective government. I'd imagine something could go pretty severely wrong there. The Stray Dog War turned hot, a decade early?
 
I can't envision a stronger Ottoman Empire somehow leading to WW1. It was Italy's defeat of the Ottomans that triggered the two Balkan Wars, it was the Balkan Wars that fanned Serbia's territorial ambitions, and it was those ambitions that funded the Black Hand. If anything, the Ottomans successfully defending Libya would delay WW1.

On a somewhat related note; why do we always look south and east for WW1's "trigger event"? Could the Irish Home Rule crisis lead to war? Or the seemingly perennial political instability of Third Republic France? Or the "Tragic Week" in 1909 Spain?


Bill
 
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Thande

Donor
Could the Irish Home Rule crisis lead to war?

How, exactly? What foreign powers cared about the Irish? The only effect I can see is that it might be seen as a sign of British weakness and stir up disputes that previously had remained quiescent out of fear of British naval supremacy or something, but doesn't seem particularly likely to me.
 
Why? The Generalstab were afraid they would be unbeatable by 1916. Obviously they were being pessimistic because they wanted a war, but nevertheless even with the rigours of that war Russia was in some ways stronger in 1916 than it was in 1914.

As to the topic, Bulgaria is a barrel of fun, what with Pirin Macedonia and western Thrace having an irredentist terror organisation which is also very influential in Sofia as their effective government. I'd imagine something could go pretty severely wrong there. The Stray Dog War turned hot, a decade early?

Because they don't build a sphere of influence in the Balkans, note I made your point about 1916

Regards Bobbis
 
How, exactly? What foreign powers cared about the Irish? The only effect I can see is that it might be seen as a sign of British weakness and stir up disputes that previously had remained quiescent out of fear of British naval supremacy or something, but doesn't seem particularly likely to me.

Because they don't build a sphere of influence in the Balkans, note I made your point about 1916

Regards Bobbis
Yes, I know these are replies to unrelated posts... I just couldn't help pretending they were connected.
 
How, exactly?


Thande,

I don't know. That's why I asked.

What foreign powers cared about the Irish? The only effect I can see is that it might be seen as a sign of British weakness and stir up disputes that previously had remained quiescent out of fear of British naval supremacy or something, but doesn't seem particularly likely to me.

Neither does it seem likely to me. To be fair, I also mentioned potential French or Spanish problems too.

I was merely pointing out that always we seem to follow the same paths in thread like these. Of course there's a good reason why those paths are followed, but I wonder some times if it's more out of an "intellectual inertia" rather than inevitability.


Bill
 
Actually, I always thought, if it wasn't the Balkans, a weaker (or outright collapsing) Ottoman Empire would have been the trigger. It had the potential to set up a scramble for the middle east, with the European powers attempting land grabs in the collapsing empire. Greek attempts for a sort of "reconquista" and the possibilities of clashes between their supporters and Ottoman supporters could light the fuse too.

If not there, Africa, I think, would have inevitably set off some sort of crisis that may very well have spiraled out of control.

Another possible flashpoint would be China, with the U.S. in from the jump, defending the "Open Door" with force if necessary.
 

Rush Tarquin

Gone Fishin'
Actually, I always thought, if it wasn't the Balkans, a weaker (or outright collapsing) Ottoman Empire would have been the trigger. It had the potential to set up a scramble for the middle east, with the European powers attempting land grabs in the collapsing empire. Greek attempts for a sort of "reconquista" and the possibilities of clashes between their supporters and Ottoman supporters could light the fuse too.

The Balkan Wars on a larger scale basically with the European great powers replacing the Balkan League. It's dramatic and it would involve the Balkan states snatching up the Ottoman's European possessions anyway.
 
Because they don't build a sphere of influence in the Balkans, note I made your point about 1916

Regards Bobbis

The Serbians did a splendid job during WW1, but I really don't think the lack of a Serbian alliance would have that much influence on reckoning of Russian power. Things like the extension of the railway network would far more than balance out the loss of an ally who everybody enormously underestimated before the war anyway.
 
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Wolfpaw

Banned
Actually, I always thought, if it wasn't the Balkans, a weaker (or outright collapsing) Ottoman Empire would have been the trigger. It had the potential to set up a scramble for the middle east, with the European powers attempting land grabs in the collapsing empire. Greek attempts for a sort of "reconquista" and the possibilities of clashes between their supporters and Ottoman supporters could light the fuse too.

I hope Abdul Hadi Pasha doesn't run across this...:rolleyes:
 
I hope Abdul Hadi Pasha doesn't run across this...:rolleyes:

The Ottomans weren't going to collapse by themselves, but the "inspectorates" created in eastern Anatolia in 1913 could have ended very, very badly for them, and might indeed have served as a spark in Russo-German tensions. And as for Greece being crazily irredentist, well... just look at what happened.
 
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