Alternate Bull Runs, Alternate Thomases

Joe Johnston's army arrived just in time to save the confederate bacon after its left collapsed at Bull Run. Patterson had been supposed to pin Johnston down but he had failed. Suppose he didn't.

Winfield Scott never countermands Patterson's proposal to cross the Potomac at Leesburg. Result: Patterson is in supporting distance of McDowell, Johnston has to fall back from Harpers Ferry but is unable to reinforce Beauregard at Bull Run. McDowell wins a striking victory.

Is he able to do anything with it? In OTL the Confederate army was as disorganized by victory at Bull Run as the Union was by defeat. The Union overall had better transport but at this stage of the war is probably too disorganized to do anything with it. The Army of the Northern Virginia and Richmond both probably survive.

An interesting and counter-intuitive result would be if the same Union recognition that it needed more, more trained, and more equipped soldiers--and the same witchhunt for responsible parties--followed on a Union failure to followup a Bull Run victory effectively as followed the OTL Bull Run defeat.

Hopefully the butterflies wouldn't bring an ATL Trent Affair equivalent within a few months of the Union victory at Bull Run, because a cocky Union is likely to get itself into deep trouble, absent some very prescient statesmanship by Lincoln.

Edit: ignore the "Alternate Thomases" in the title. Sorry about that.
 
Last edited:
Well, in the end the Union is (as you mentioned) probably too disorganized to really exploit the victory immediately. They now a) control strategic Manassas Junction and b) have the thrill of victory to the CS's agony of defeat.

I'd guess the ANV falls back below the Rappahannok to regroup, either Orange or C-ville or Spotsy depending on the severity of the rout. From there, though, pure guesswork.

If the AOP can regroup and move quickly enough they *could* set the ANV on a defensive posture from the get-go. This *could* force a much sooner retreat to Richmond, but this early in the game there's a lot more Johnny Rebs to shift around from other theaters, so I'm doubtful unless the Union commander is very aggressive and the CS commander very passive...which violates the accepted stereotypes! :p

On the ANV side there will be HUGE pressure from the Gray House to 'kick the Yankees out of our country'. We might see Manassas 2.0 almost immediately after 1.0 if the ANV moves first.

The outcome of the second battle could have huge consequences either way. Plus all the potential butterflies on who fights where, gets killed or promoted, etc.
 
Top