Alternate Battle of Phillipine Sea...

I came across this on another forum, and the conversation there intrigued me enough to post it here.

Here's the thread in question.

Let's assume that the IJN men who wanted the battleships and cruisers sent against the carriers won out.

Would it really be a better idea?
What would happen?
Assuming a victory for the IJN (unlikely enough to fall near or in ASB territory, but still), how much does this delay the American war effort?
Would a success here be better or worse then a success against the transport force?
 

CalBear

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I came across this on another forum, and the conversation there intrigued me enough to post it here.

Here's the thread in question.

Let's assume that the IJN men who wanted the battleships and cruisers sent against the carriers won out.

Would it really be a better idea?
What would happen?
Assuming a victory for the IJN (unlikely enough to fall near or in ASB territory, but still), how much does this delay the American war effort?
Would a success here be better or worse then a success against the transport force?

Well there are more than a couple of problems with this plan.

1. The USN carriers were faster than the Japanese BBs Fuso & Yamashiro were rated at 25 knots, while Yamato & Musashi were both rated at 27. The SLOWEST combat ship with the Halsey's Fleet Carriers were the Alabama, Massachusetts, South Dakota and Washington all rated at 27+ knots. Tough to hunt what you can't catch.

2. The Japanese heavies were remarkably vulnerable to air attack. The IJN never developed a good AAA set-up for their ships, much less a reasonable doctrine for mutual defense. This is one of the things that really stands out between the IJN & USN, U.S. AAA was extremely strong and well used, causing high numbers of casualties to attacking aircraft. Attacks against Japanese formations losses were generally due to fighter action, with much less damage inflicted by the ship's defenses. The U.S. carriers had over 490 BOMBERS available to them, plus roughly 600 fighters capable of acting as dive bombers. The Musashi was sunk by a part of these air forces forces, with Kurita avoiding the total destruction of his fleet soley because Halsey believed he was in full retreat and set out after the Japanese carriers.

3. The American carriers were not just bobbing about the Pacific by themselves. There were SIX fast battleships Alabama, Massachusetts, South Dakota, Washington, Iowa & New Jersey with the carriers, along with 8 CA, 6 CL, 3 CLAA, 63 DD. Note that this DOES NOT include the fairly large group of DD escorting the fleet train. You will note that this gives, completely apart from the main weapon of the carrier force, the U.S. a parity in battleships (counting the Ise & Hyuga as carriers), a 2-1 advantage in cruisers and a SIX to ONE advantage in destroyers. This is completely apart from the combat effectiveness of the two forces. Each American destroyer is close in total combat power to a Japanese CL, while the Japanese main advantage, the spectacular "Long Lance" torpedo was, outside of the confined waters of the Solomons, surprisingly ineffective, (due to faulty tactical application by IJN commanders trying to repeat the successes of Savo Island more than any fault with the torpedoes themselves) with a lower hit rate than the much maligned U.S. torpedo. U.S. torpedo hit rates for surface launched weapons hovered right around 8%. The 60+ destroyers covering the carriers had more than 600 torpedoes available. The effectiveness of American destroyer torpedoes against major Japanese Fleet units was demonstrated during the Battle of Samar, where ALL the engaged Japanese cruisers were crippled by the torpedoes of Taffy Two's escort.

BTW: The forces IN the Gulf included 18 CVE, 9 cruisers, 83 DD, and 34 DDE

The Japanese surface force was so out gunned that it was doomed, regardless of target. At least by trying for the landing beaches it was given a slender chance of inflicting casualties on the American forces. Trying for TF 38 would have resulted in the loss of the entire force without a single crew member ever seeing an American ship. Yamato dies off the Philippines instead of in the last great act of defiance off Okinawa, along with the Japanese surface fleet.

As far as what happens if the IJN succeeded in sinking the 33 knot American carriers with 27 knot battleships in open water, I would have to say that Japan wins the war, because it is absolutely clear that God Himself has come down from Heaven and is throwing thunderbolts at the American Navy.
 
Yes it would have been better not becuase the Japanese would have won the Battle they would have lost their battleships before they came into range although if Halsey hadn't gone sick, they may have done a bit better but becuase their carrier fleet and aircraft would have been able to launch an effective defense of the Philipnies
 

burmafrd

Banned
By Leyte Gulf Japanese Carrier aviation was dead. The somewhat trained crews were destroyed at the Phillipine Sea (The Great Mariansas Turkey Shoot) and that was the reason there never was justification for Halsey doing what he did- we KNEW the IJN could not have trained crews on the few carriers that they had left. Mitscher told Halsey that but Halsey would not listen.
At the Phillipine sea the idea was for the IJN to rely on land based planes to soften up the carriers for the IJN- but we messed that up by destroying them before the battle. Of course by mid 1944 there were virtually no pre war IJN pilots left and those that had gotten any training or experience during the war were pretty much gone as well. With the lack of fuel pretty much ensuring that they would never be replaced. That was the main reason behind the Kamikazze-Japan had no other alternative.
Had the IJN sent the BBs and CA's to attack the US Fleet and used the carrier aircraft to try and protect them it might have been a closer battle. At that time they would have had the Yamato and Musashi, and the Nagato, plus the Kongo and Haruna, and could have added the Ise and Hyuga since they still had their forward turrets. I doubt the Fuso and Yamishiro would have been added since they were only a few knots faster then our old BBs. The Long Lance would have been a factor there with its very long range.
 
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