Trully show your bias talking here, once they allow it, London treaty is dead letter and they knew it, they easily can say no and french would be fuming but they would invaded? i don't think so
Alternate Battle of Lorraine 1914
Aphrodite
Banned
I'm not saying they will. The Germans don't know though.
If you look at the British cabinet meetings plenty were willing to let Germany violate southern Belgium. Why wouldn't they let France?
See my edit to previous response
Aphrodite
Banned
Go check your figures. Seven German armies totalled only 1,500,000 so the three armies your sending East are pretty small.
Of course when you add the French reserves, territorial and active divisions, you get 1700,000.
Add another 800,000 in the fortresses. So yeah even with the British out and the Belgians in, the Germans aren't in good shape
In fact, there's plenty of evidence that the Belgians would have said "no."
More to the point, though, Joffre is handcuffed from going into Belgium. Again, I direct Aphrodite's attention to the Terence Holmes article I excerpted earlier in the thread.
If Moltke had followed Schlieffen’s real intentions for the counter-offensive conduct of a two-front war, the first great battle of 1914 would have been fought in Lorraine in the third week of hostilities, on terms much more favourable to Germany than they were at the battle of the Marne. We can reconstruct this alternative scenario because we know exactly what the French chief of staff Joseph Joffre intended to do if the Germans did not invade Belgium.
French war planning was constrained by two political imperatives. In the first place, France was committed by agreement with her Russian ally to launch an ‘all-out and immediate’ attack against Germany as soon as possible after the outbreak of war. Moreover, the French government had resolved not to encroach on Belgian territory unless the Germans did so first. Joffre was therefore obliged to incorporate in his war plans a variant which allowed for a full-scale offensive avoiding Belgian territory altogether, and that would have come into effect in 1914 if the Germans had stayed on the defensive and not entered Belgium. For this eventuality Joffre decided that three of his five armies, comprising some 60 percent of his first-line troops, should invade Lorraine on 14 August, aiming initially to reach the line of the river Saar between Sarrebourg and Saarbrücken (Doughty 2010, 146-8, 155-8, 168). Ominously, that position was flanked at both ends by the German fortresses of Metz and Strasbourg.
Schlieffen had long before outlined how the Germans should exploit a massive French incursion through ‘the relatively narrow space between Metz and Strasbourg’. The aim must not be to push the enemy back to his fortified border. Rather, he had to be engaged on three sides, ‘from Metz, from the Saar and from Strasbourg’, and brought to a standstill there, which would give the Germans an excellent chance of decisive victory by means of envelopment attacks out of Metz and Strasbourg. The ultimate aim of this ‘attack on the enemy’s flank and rear’ would be to surround the French invasion forces and ‘not just defeat them, but lay them low and as far as possible annihilate them’ (Boetticher 1933, 260).
Feel free to correct me if I am mistaken, but the Aufmarsch Ost plans I have seen have Fourth Army screening Luxembourg and southern Belgium.
The idea that the Germans will abandon the Metz-Thionville fortified belt - arguably the most extensive fortification line in the world in 1914 - without fight, even with a live danger of envelopment from the north, just strikes me as bizarre.
Lorraine looks to be an abattoir for Joffre's armies in this scenario.
Aphrodite
Banned
And what good is that when the French are fully mobilized?
This thread for some reason ignores the French reserve and territorial divisions. That's 600,000 men that the French didn't use in plan XVII.
Even then, the Germans used the 1-4 armies to defend north of Metz not just the 4th.
In the Western campaign, the Germans suffered 300,000 casualties in the Western campaign. How can they sustain such losses with only half the Army?
Still waiting for how the Germans cope if the British intervene or the Belgians take a pass
the best case scenario for the Germans is they trade Northern France for Poland and the Russians don't lose 1st and 2nd Armies.
have you ever wondered why the Germans wanted nothing to do with this idea?
It could be that they've been ignored for a damned good reason.
Have you considered that the Heer sustained those casualties in the midst of the largest offensive seen to that date in European history?
Aphrodite
Banned
They're ignored because you can't figure out how to defend against them. Neither could Moltke Wich is why he had a mental breakdown at the thought- and that's with France neutral.
Still, can you name one German General who proposed they do this?
just one who thought they should go East in a two front war. That's not asking much.
the French beat seven German armies at the Marne and you think they won't beat four in Lorraine
Moltke had a breakdown because he was mentally unstable to begin with. (Poor chap.)
I mean, Falkenhayn didn't have a breakdown.
Uh....Alfred von Schlieffen?
The General Staff held entire wargames -- like Generalstabsreise Ost - that were premised on this!
This is not an accurate characterization of the Battle of the Marne. The forces actually engaged at the Marne were 64 French divisions and 6 British divisions against 51 German divisions. (Or to be even more accurate, 262 battalions in the German 1, 2, and 3 Armies versus 459 battalions in the BEF and French 6, 5 and 9 Armies.) The Allies won mainly because they achieved a superiority in numbers at the critical point of contact.
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Aphrodite
Banned
Of course Falkenhayn was willing to go East - if France was neutral and Britain guaranteed it. It's a far cry from going East with a hostile France and a N uncertain Britain in the rear.
Citation needed. We're looking for a war game where the Germans stand on the defensive in the West, Britain is unknown and Italy and Romania neutral. Oh and the Germans win
Kind of the point:. 64 bruised and battered French divisions defeated the Germans. And you think 80 French divisions aren't running all over 40.
ferdi254
Banned
It is still only 1.5 against 1.2 million in one of the best defendable and defended terrains in the world. Adding French reserve, fortress etc does not help because the Germans can also add Landwehr.
And why 4 German armies should do worse than the one of OTL simply escapes me.
And why 4 German armies should do worse than the one of OTL simply escapes me.
As already pointed out that was with the germans being on the offensive - just want to add here they are not only being on the defnsive but also sitting in very well fortified position and fighting a war their genereals have extensively wargamed for. Also lets note that technological advances favoured the defense probably the most in human history at the start of WWI. Further they were finally defeated OTL when they reached the end of their logistic line after a very exhaustive offensive. Here they are well rested and logistics are no problem. Morally also there is a plus as they are not fighting in the middle of France - they are defending what they regard german soil. Finally the french who defeated the germans at the Marne have learned a lot of lessons fighting the german before hand. Here they are making an attack that could easily result in a decisive defeat without those.
IIRC Zuber in The Real German War Plan bases his thesis partly on the war games of Schlieffen - there being no war game for the Schlieffen plan but a french attack into Lorraine and how it should be defeatd was extensivly planned for.
Yeah, the germans were in much better shape than - exhausted and on the offensive having left their logistic behind. I fail to see the similarities of the situation.
Just so. Indeed, the last war game Schlieffen oversaw -- the Generalstabsreise West in 1905 -- was premised on counterattacks against offensives of both Russia and France into Germany. In a two front war. Zuber's monograph discusses this. (Cite for Aphrodite is Terence Zuber, The Real German War Plan, 1904-14, History Press, 2011.)
Right. And to underline that...we might contemplate the shellacking Joffre suffered when he did, in fact, launch his offensive into Lorraine against Rupprecht's Sixth Army in August 1914 OTL.
I dont know enough about Russian war planing to judge whether they would do this, but even if they do, the loss of Poland would be a blow to the Russians. They would lose their biggest fortresses, a lot of stockpiled equipment and a significant part of their Industry. It would also improve the strategic position of the central powers in the east significantly. They have shortened the border, have the Bug as a defensive line and without the Russian victories in Galicia, the chances of an Italian entry are far lower and Romania might even change sides.
Even with (fortified) Luxembourg, the Belgian-German Border is quite short (because of Maastricht) and mountainous. The Belgian railway network in this area was also much smaller than in the west and along the Meuse. I doubt France would be willing to violate Dutch neutrality and Belgium would never let French troops pass through the western part of the country
A few points
1. If the Germans had a plan for an East first strategy prior to 1914, it is reasonable to assume that they would have been taking measures in advance to make this strategy work out for them such as - enhancing rail links up to the Russian border and constructing defensive works along the French border.
2. a key advantage of this strategy is that it supports Austria - this potentially has a number of side effects.
3. One side effect is an earlier collapse of Serbia,
4. another side effect is that Romania may stay neutral or even join the CP
5. a further side effect is that Italy may stay neutral
6. even if the UK enters the war, it is likely that there will be a less robust public support for the war (no stories about atrocities in Belgium) and with no threat to Paris or the Channel ports, it is possible that the UK will decide not to mobilize on a mass basis but instead to send a token force to France in order to "show the flag"
7. by the same token, the Dominions may be less enthusiastic about sending lots of troops into the conflict,
8. And even the French themselves may find that public opinion is less enthusiastic for the war now that the issue is no longer a question of pushing the Germans out of northern France
9. the German navy will probably dominate the Baltic and may be able to use various ports as part of a strategy to move up the coast and liberate the Baltic states and Finland
10. Finally, it will be less likely that the United States will want to jump into this mess if it is primarily an Eastern European struggle
This could lead to a situation in which Germany and Austria make modest gains in the East and then make a reasonable peace proposal to which the UK suggests the allies respond leading to a peace which leaves the Germans with a much more secure Eastern border and the Austrians with a much weaker Serbian enemy.
1. If the Germans had a plan for an East first strategy prior to 1914, it is reasonable to assume that they would have been taking measures in advance to make this strategy work out for them such as - enhancing rail links up to the Russian border and constructing defensive works along the French border.
2. a key advantage of this strategy is that it supports Austria - this potentially has a number of side effects.
3. One side effect is an earlier collapse of Serbia,
4. another side effect is that Romania may stay neutral or even join the CP
5. a further side effect is that Italy may stay neutral
6. even if the UK enters the war, it is likely that there will be a less robust public support for the war (no stories about atrocities in Belgium) and with no threat to Paris or the Channel ports, it is possible that the UK will decide not to mobilize on a mass basis but instead to send a token force to France in order to "show the flag"
7. by the same token, the Dominions may be less enthusiastic about sending lots of troops into the conflict,
8. And even the French themselves may find that public opinion is less enthusiastic for the war now that the issue is no longer a question of pushing the Germans out of northern France
9. the German navy will probably dominate the Baltic and may be able to use various ports as part of a strategy to move up the coast and liberate the Baltic states and Finland
10. Finally, it will be less likely that the United States will want to jump into this mess if it is primarily an Eastern European struggle
This could lead to a situation in which Germany and Austria make modest gains in the East and then make a reasonable peace proposal to which the UK suggests the allies respond leading to a peace which leaves the Germans with a much more secure Eastern border and the Austrians with a much weaker Serbian enemy.
AFAIK the dominions were actually very eager to show their solidarity and support - some were offering it even before the british entered the war. The UK did not have to ask for it and they were not really concerned with Belgium to begin with. I dont see them less supportive.