Alternate Battle of Lorraine 1914

How will TTL battle of Lorraine end?

  • Germany wins and then invades France.

    Votes: 101 42.6%
  • Stalemate along more or less the existing border.

    Votes: 102 43.0%
  • France wins and advances to the Rhineland.

    Votes: 34 14.3%

  • Total voters
    237

marathag

Banned
If the war lasts long but Germany is going to be doing much worse in the West
If they are on the Defense, I find that unlikely.
Militarily, they don't have Belgium and a corner of France, but that comes without the PR spin that magnified their actual bad behavior , so there just isn't the 'Nurse raping, Baby-eating Hun' in this TL

Here, they are saying 'None shall Pass' not the French
 

ferdi254

Banned
Aphrodit war is the continuation of politics by other means. If you can achieve your war targets without destroying your enemy‘s ability to wage war then it is fine.

And again you state against the simple fact that the French could make it to the Rhine. They did not do it OTL and not for a lack of trying. Could you please try for once what is your exact reasoning to say that ITTL they would be able with a worse power ratio to achieve what they did not OTL?
 

Aphrodite

Banned
If they are on the Defense, I find that unlikely.
Militarily, they don't have Belgium and a corner of France, but that comes without the PR spin that magnified their actual bad behavior , so there just isn't the 'Nurse raping, Baby-eating Hun' in this TL

Here, they are saying 'None shall Pass' not the French
Yeah I know you doubt it. I'm going by the German general staff's opinion.

The need for nurse raping baby eating propaganda can be satisfied from Poland.

Like I said, if we get away from the ISOTS and look at the real situation, it becomes obvious what a disaster this is.

Like Moltke wrote Conrad "The defense of the west would take so much that the forces left would hardly suffice to force a decision on Russia"

That was in 1909. Serbia was nothing, Romania and Italy loyal to the alliance and Moltke still wouldn't do it.

The forty division theory comes from ignoring the Italian contribution.

There's a reason Moltke had a mental breakdown over the thought.

And that was with the hope of British and French neutrality
 
If you try it with just 40, they will be defeated, pinned to the Rhine and destroyed.

If you follow the actual German OST II, they would be behind the Saar rather than making a defensive stand in exposed Luxembourg. Germany would have lost her iron fields without a fight.
That the Germans will abandon the fortresses in Lorraine without a fight seems to me a rather strange assumption. Do you have a source for this?

I also have no idea how you think the French are going to reach the Rhine. The armies will become rather overstretched and vulnerable to flank attacks. Maybe you should draw your plan on a map.
 
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ferdi254

Banned
Aphrodite can we go with a simple sect of facts and you explain wich one is wrong

A) there were 3 French armies fighting two German armies OTL
B) those three armies did everything they could to beat the two German armies
C) they did not only not succed but were bloodily repulsed.
D) ITTL the French are fighting. 5:4 armies

So if you disagree with A to D give your exact reasoning.

And if you think there is a reason why the French would do better ITTL than OTL please state it exactly.
 
If you follow the actual German OST II, they would be behind the Saar rather than making a defensive stand in exposed Luxembourg. Germany would have lost her iron fields without a fight.
As far as i know this was only true in the warplans form 1903/04 and already in 1905 German troops were to hold the right bank of the moselle. And this was also the case in basically all wargames in the west. I think the fortification of Metzt and the building of railways from Koblenz to Trier also point in this direction.
 

Aphrodite

Banned
As far as i know this was only true in the warplans form 1903/04 and already in 1905 German troops were to hold the right bank of the moselle. And this was also the case in basically all wargames in the west. I think the fortification of Metzt and the building of railways from Koblenz to Trier also point in this direction.
Possible, I m not familiar with every plan they drew up. The fortifications around Metz Thionville are designed more to protect the concentration of the German right wing from raiding parties than defend against a full invasion from France.

Metz is an old French fortress designed to protect France from Germany not the other way around.

It's poorly sited to defend against France being easily bypassed from the north. If I remember correctly, they put some forces to delay a French attack but intended to make their stand on the Saar. The 1912 war games had France bypassing Metz on M45.

They could have tried a lot of things in 1903- Britain allying with Russia would be very unlikely, more likely the other way around, Italy and Romania were more loyal,Serbia nothing.

Italy's defection leaves a huge hole in these plans
 

Aphrodite

Banned
Look how well it did against Patton 30 years later.
And 1914 Joffre was no Patton in attacking successfully.
The fortress can stand all it wants. I said bypassed That means the French simply go around it. The fortress will stand depending on how many troops your willing to lose when it surrenders.

of course once Thionville comes within range of the French guns iron smelting ends. Real hard to fight a war without iron. The Germans didn't even think about that one when they rejected this idea.

there are about a hundred rather obvious reasons to go West. I'm sure it is possible to wank a German victory but Moltke is fighting a real war against real enemies who are doing their best to win.

The mental breakdown is understandable
 

marathag

Banned
The fortress can stand all it wants. I said bypassed That means the French simply go around it. The fortress will stand depending on how many troops your willing to lose when it surrenders.
So why didn't Patton bypass and bounce the Rhine in September 1944??
Maybe not wanting to risk a powerful countetattack on his flank, and risk getting cut off?
 

ferdi254

Banned
The first circle of fortresses in Metz was started by the French and completed by the Germans. The second circle was built by the Germans.

So definitely no old French design to keep the Germans out.
 

Coulsdon Eagle

Monthly Donor
The fortress can stand all it wants. I said bypassed That means the French simply go around it. The fortress will stand depending on how many troops your willing to lose when it surrenders.

of course once Thionville comes within range of the French guns iron smelting ends. Real hard to fight a war without iron. The Germans didn't even think about that one when they rejected this idea.

there are about a hundred rather obvious reasons to go West. I'm sure it is possible to wank a German victory but Moltke is fighting a real war against real enemies who are doing their best to win.

The mental breakdown is understandable
My understanding is that Germany invested heavily in fortifying the Metz-Thionville as a huge defensive zone, the Moselstellung, rather than individual fortresses, with the second belt of fortifications being completed in early 20th Century. It was also a major staging area for the troop trains (recall Richard Holmes in The Western Front walking around one of the huge railway stations on BBC in late 1990's) so needed both accommodation & protection for these. They knew that at some stage a French government would come to power that would actively seek the return of Alsace-Lorraine, as Boulanger came close to in the 1880's.

This site has some nice maps, and if I could read German...
https://www.festungen.info/content/...he-festungen-bis-1914/festungen-rund-um-metz/

The French would find it as difficult to penetrate or bypass Metz as the Germans found Verdun, and with considerably less heavy artillery in 1914 than the Germans managed in 1916, and without the Germans relying on one supply route (insert German equivalent of la voie sacree here).
 

Deleted member 2186

Here is the question i am pondering, what if the French move into Belgium to flank the Germans, would the British still be obligated to go to war with France ore will they say to Belgium, its not a invasion but just the French passing by.
 
The fortress can stand all it wants. I said bypassed That means the French simply go around it. The fortress will stand depending on how many troops your willing to lose when it surrenders.

of course once Thionville comes within range of the French guns iron smelting ends. Real hard to fight a war without iron. The Germans didn't even think about that one when they rejected this idea.

there are about a hundred rather obvious reasons to go West. I'm sure it is possible to wank a German victory but Moltke is fighting a real war against real enemies who are doing their best to win.

The mental breakdown is understandable

I posted a map of the Moselstellung earlier in this thread here. To prevent Metz from being bypassed on the north side, three fortresses were built between 1898 and 1914 around Thionville (known at the time as Diedenhofen). 'Feste Obergentringen' was the largest and strongest fortress.
 
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Aphrodite

Banned
My understanding is that Germany invested heavily in fortifying the Metz-Thionville as a huge defensive zone, the Moselstellung, rather than individual fortresses, with the second belt of fortifications being completed in early 20th Century. It was also a major staging area for the troop trains (recall Richard Holmes in The Western Front walking around one of the huge railway stations on BBC in late 1990's) so needed both accommodation & protection for these. They knew that at some stage a French government would come to power that would actively seek the return of Alsace-Lorraine, as Boulanger came close to in the 1880's.

This site has some nice maps, and if I could read German...
https://www.festungen.info/content/...he-festungen-bis-1914/festungen-rund-um-metz/
Fixations there and the route is open.


The French would find it as difficult to penetrate or bypass Metz as the Germans found Verdun, and with considerably less heavy artillery in 1914 than the Germans managed in 1916, and without the Germans relying on one supply route (insert German equivalent of la voie sacree here).
The German war games had the French bypass it on M45. The complex is designed to protect the German troop concentration for the right wing.

Looking at the maps for plan XVII, the French are going north through Belgium and Luxembourg. The Germans have no fortifications there that are worth anything.

The Germans can hold the West, it's just going to take a lot more than 40 divisions especially once the British arrive.

East first thread's like this ones ignore the very large French forces that aren't committed to the Battles of the Frontier, the role Italy played in German war plans, insist the French won't violate Belgium (and the Germans know they won't), and the British won't intervene but Ally with Germany to keep the French out of Belgium.

It's rather dubious and crosses into ASB when the Germans are given foresight to take advantage of these developments.

The French will bring their six divisions from the Alps, their 8 divisions of Fortress troops, the six divisions assigned to coastal duty and the six British divisions of the BEF. What Belgium does is unknown so the Germans will need to defend that with their own troops until Belgian intentions are clear.
 

Aphrodite

Banned
Here is the question i am pondering, what if the French move into Belgium to flank the Germans, would the British still be obligated to go to war with France ore will they say to Belgium, its not a invasion but just the French passing by.
The British will declare war first, then the two offer to stay south of the Muese if Belgium let's them through.

No one in Britain cares about Belgium so they won't mind if the French go through it or not. This is about the sacred right of the British to rule over Hindus, Muslims, Africans and others. It's also about not being sold into slavery.

The rights of Belgium are only worth what the Belgians are willing to pay to defend them.
 

ferdi254

Banned
I ask this again and again. Historical fact is that despite a vigorous attack 3 French armies got bloodily repulsed by 2 German armies. Why would 5 French armies do better against 4 German ones?

But well of course if ITTL Metz is only an old French fortress and not one of the most modern and poweful fortresses of the time, then it makes sense.
 
The British will declare war first, then the two offer to stay south of the Muese if Belgium let's them through
This is also a strange assumption. There was no treaty that if France declares war on Germany, Britain will automatically join this war.

And that proposal to Belgium is also dubious. The French government did not give Joffre permission to invade Belgium in 1914.
 
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