Alternate Battle of Guadalcanal

what would have happened if the imperial japanese navy had won the battle of Iron Sound near Guadalcanal in 1942? could the japanese forces have seized the islands and the precious airfield? and if so, how long could they hold the islands and how do you think this would effect the length of the war in the pacific.
 
Which battle of Iron Bootom sound, there were at least 4 battles in the vicinity. The Japanese won the Battle of Savo Island but failed to press home their advantage and attack the transports. Had they stepped up activity then, they could have retaken the airstrip but they wouldn't have been able to hold it. They could have been cut off and maybe the Americans would have gone round it might have slightly prolonged the war but by Niovember 1942, American had modern battleships by the end of 1943 the Essex class carriers were arriving. In the Guadalcanal Battles outside the Iron Bottom sound area i.e East Solomonas and Santa Cruz the Japanese lost a lot of their experienced pliots, America could replace pilots more quickly and wasn't restricted by fuel shortages
 
Gekokujo

I agree with Andrew. It is also rather hard to imagine consistent Japanese victories. Japanese forces were almost as confused in the dark as American ships without radar during the two battles of Guadalcanal. At Savo they had help from float planes. That leaves Tassafaronga, where Tanaka was surprised and heavily outnumbered while his destroyers were encumbered with deck cargo. The fact that he had prepared plans and trained his forces so that they could carry them out under fire to win a significant victory is sufficient reason why Tanaka is regarded as a genius.

However, imagine that during July 1942 Mikawa and Hyakutake discussed the consequences of Midway. They agreed that the Americans would probably try to take Guadalcanal. Unfortunately, Hyakutake did not get permission to send a division. However, they decided to send most of the division and supplies for three months while leaving the headquarters at Rabaul, so that Tokyo would not immediately find out. The troops are moved in late July and told to dig in around the airfield. If you want them to think really hard, Mikawa could also send construction units to Munda to build a fighter strip.

As signals intelligence would not reveal these developments, the marines land as OTL. However, they have an uncomfortable few months without much air support. Finally at Santa Cruz (OK is unlikely to run parallel for that long), Nagumo has not used fuel waiting and can also sink Enterprise.

Still not likely to change anything longterm but Mikawa and Hyakutake would remain famous for insubordination.
 

Markus

Banned
what would have happened if the imperial japanese navy had won the battle of Iron Sound near Guadalcanal in 1942? could the japanese forces have seized the islands and the precious airfield?

Easily!

After sinking the CAs, Adm. Mikawa proceeds. He sinks USS San Juan and HMS Hobart, too, bombards the airfield and sinks the 15 transports.

But retaking Lunga Point requires more. The Japanese need to understand they deal with almost an entire divisions and not a mere raiding force. Thus they do not launch the attack at the Tenaru river, but conserve their strength. They rush in 15cm guns to shell the airfield –highly effective in OTL, but too late- and in conjunction with another naval bombardment Cactus Air force is incapacitated for a few days, allowing reinforcements to reach Guadacanal unopposed.

IMO the best POD is the Battle of the Eastern Solomons. Halsey´s careless decision to send Hornet and Enterprise east should have cost him both ships, if luck had not intervened four times in the Americans favour. First a CVL had to abort because of an engine room fire, second two SBDs on recon crippled another CVL with a 500lb bomb and most amazingly one group of torpedo bombers and one group of dive bombers did not score a single hit on USS Enterprise at all. If things had gone normal the USN would have had just one fast carrier –USS Saratoga- for the next half year, while the the Japanese CV-force would have remained largely intact. If Yamamoto had take the opportunity to let his battleship force off the leach, the Marines on Guadalcanal would have been doomed.



and if so, how long could they hold the islands and how do you think this would effect the length of the war in the pacific.
However, it won´t matter in the long run. If GC is lost all the resources that went inot the Solomons campaing will most likely be poured into New Guinea, which is closer to Rabaul anyway. Construction of Essex-class CV prodeeds as planned, so will the 1943 offensiv in the central pacific.
 

burmafrd

Banned
The critical weaknesses that Japan has remains: poor anti submarine practices; loss of elite fighter and bomber pilots and the very slow system of replacement training; lack of merchant marine/tanker capacity; and above all an abysmal command/control system that invariably makes the wrong strategic decisions.
 
Don't forget, until quite late in the battle, the Japanese didn't send in but driblets of troops, so winning sea battles didn't amount to much. The better strategic decision would've been to withdraw to Rabaul & not fight at Guad at all. In the long run, the USN Sub Force was going to paralyze SLOCs, & the stupid Tokyo Express runs wasted DDs IJN couldn't spare, making Sub Force's job measurably easier...
 
Top