Alternate Apartheid Story

Years of Turmoil

The year 1985 was a difficult one for the citizens of Durban. By that point the government had begun displacing the black population of the city to the homelands. Most were ethnic Zulus and as such had to be moved to KwaZulu. The majority went peacefully. The government in Pretoria had begun to deny job opportunities for blacks in Durban and instead provided assistance in finding work in the Zulu homeland. Faced with the prospect of unemployment and continued discrimination, most blacks left voluntarily. Many, however, refused to obey the Apartheid authorities and elected to resist. After all, in their mind they had as much right, if not more, to the land as the whites and Indians. Moreover, some South African citizens in the area supported the blacks’ desire to stay.

October of that year would see severe unrest in Durban. Many of the blacks who had refused to move became increasingly restless, especially after the government announced the planned destruction of the townships housing most of them. This decision spurred widespread disapproval and protests in the townships became an everyday occurrence. The township of Umlazi, in particular, located south-west of the city, would see violent clashes between the black protesters and police, who, at times, would have to resort to rubber bullets and water cannons to quell the riots. Generally, over the course of the month the area would come to resemble a war zone as cars and shops burned. The vast majority of the protesting blacks, it was claimed, were supporters or even members of the African National Congress, which in general had no desire to see the black homelands succeed and only fueled the violence. What is more, many liberals among the Asian and English populations supported the protesters. The Progressives, wary of losing relevance following the 1984 elections and the Rubicon speech, organized demonstrations of solidarity in the central areas of the city which inevitably stretched police resources even thinner.

As the situation in and around the city grew increasingly worse many in Botha’s government began calling for a state of emergency to be declared so that local police and army would have increased powers in dealing with the protesters. Botha, however, was adamant that a state of emergency would not be declared. The continued success of his policies was highly dependent on the tacit support of US president Ronald Raegan whose opposition to sanctions against South Africa was the only thing keeping international pressure at bay. South African withdrawal from Angola and Namibia had rendered Raegan’s policy of constructive engagement a success and convinced Congress to refrain from introducing sanctions against Pretoria. However, Raegan warned Botha that any deterioration in the situation in South Africa would inevitably lead to increased hostility from Congress and, almost certainly, sanctions.

Using excessive violence in quelling unrest was out of the question. Instead, a more diplomatic approach was required. A central reason for the Zulu opposition to being relocated to their homeland was, among others, the perceived inadequacy of the territory apportioned. Additionally, KwaZulu was mostly inhabited by people who had lived in the area for generations. Therefore, many of the blacks in Durban believed that opportunities would be very limited for the new arrivals. Botha recognized these concerns and realized that some sort of compromise would have to be found. A diplomatic solution to the unrest in Durban would be crucial, lest Pretoria provoke the ire of the international community once more. It was precisely such a solution that would be proposed by a member of Botha’s government.

Roelof “Pik” Botha, unrelated to the State President, had served in his cabinet as Minister of Foreign Affairs. As one of the younger members of the government he was considered a moderate, even a liberal. He had been one of the few politicians from the ruling coalition in favor of giving all of Natal to the Zulus. He agreed that the size of the homeland set aside for South Africa’s largest ethnic group was not enough, especially if it was to accommodate an influx of more people from Durban. Therefore, Pik proposed to his government that further land be apportioned to KwaZulu. Specifically, he suggested a strip of land in the east of Transvaal, on the border with the Zulu state, as most appropriate. The area would subsequently become known as West Zululand.

On 5 February 1986, after extensive consultation with his cabinet and coalition partners, Botha signed the transfer of the agreed-upon territory into law. To give full effect to the measure intended to appease protesters in Durban, the government also offered a piece of farmland to most families that decided to take up residence in West Zululand, especially the ones that came during the earliest stages of the process. The government of KwaZulu itself agreed to this and promised to give its full cooperation in resettling the new arrivals, something which it had previously avoided doing, in large part out of protest against the treatment of Durban’s blacks. Additionally, the Zulu authorities pledged to facilitate the ongoing relocation of Pretoria’s citizens from KwaZulu back to South Africa proper. Many of them had found themselves inside the borders of the National State after its enlargement where they knew they would be subjected to the same discrimination that blacks suffered in South Africa. Therefore, virtually all of them would make use of the right of return granted to them by Pretoria. All of this would result in a population swap between KwaZulu and the Republic unseen anywhere in the world since the end of the Second World War.

The task of ensuring the peaceful population transfer would be challenging and would see the mobilization and active participation of police forces in both KwaZulu and Natal. The South African Defense Force would also get involved in providing additional security in case of an ANC attack. On the whole, however, the process would be a success. In Durban, the protests would gradually phase out as more and more Zulus chose to leave for their new homes in West Zululand and KwaZulu proper. By the end of 1986 demonstrations in the townships would cease entirely with only the PFP’s supporters in downtown Durban continuing their protests into 1987. In the end, however, Botha and his government would again see themselves succeed in deescalating a situation which, if mishandled, could have resulted in disaster and reversal of all the gains of the new regime.
 
What is going to happen with Namibia? I can see quite realistically splitting the country in two: an Ovamba state in the north encompassing the four smallest regions, while the rest, much more sparsely populated, could be a joint Afrikaner-Herero-Namaqua state, with Okavango and Caprivi status to be resolved by referendum.
Regarding Basotho and Swazi Areas: wouldnt it be easier to just cede those areas to Lesotho and Swaziland? Also, any possibility of Bophuthatswana joining Botswana in the future?
 
What is going to happen with Namibia? I can see quite realistically splitting the country in two: an Ovamba state in the north encompassing the four smallest regions, while the rest, much more sparsely populated, could be a joint Afrikaner-Herero-Namaqua state, with Okavango and Caprivi status to be resolved by referendum.
Regarding Basotho and Swazi Areas: wouldnt it be easier to just cede those areas to Lesotho and Swaziland? Also, any possibility of Bophuthatswana joining Botswana in the future?

Hey, sorry for the delayed response. I’ve actually lost my inspiration for this TTL but lately I’ve been returning to it more and more thinking I might get the ball rolling again. Anyway, to answer your immediate questions, the idea is indeed to get Lesotho and Swaziland to annex these areas. Not sure yet how I’m gonna make that happen yet as Swaziland was offered land IOTL and refused. I’ll have to think about it. As for Botswana and Bophuthatswana, I haven’t really decided. However, I’m leaning towards a No simply because the government of Botswana wouldn’t want to unite with the much larger population of Bophuthatwana, considering that they actually had and still have a pretty good thing going for them in their country. Rather, I picture the two Tswana countries being a bit like north and South Korea, except without the hate and constant threat of war. Botswana will remain the democracy that it is IOTL while Bophuthatswana will likely be far more authoritarian. Oh, and as for Namibia, I don’t imagine the country going in any different direction than it did IOTL. Namibia simply stays the way it is today, except with very few, if any, whites and coloureds who would definitely be making use of their right of return to SA.
 
Anyway, to answer your immediate questions, the idea is indeed to get Lesotho and Swaziland to annex these areas. Not sure yet how I’m gonna make that happen yet as Swaziland was offered land IOTL and refused. I’ll have to think about it.

What about having Queen Regent Dzeliwe Shongwe (a noted progressive amongst the Swazi royals and someone who might be more amenable to annexing land) keep power instead of falling to the 1983 reactionary Loqoqo coup centered around Queen Mother Ntfombi?

(BTW, great TL dude. I'm always glad to see anything African in the forums.)
 
Wonderful story. I have traveled to South Africa twice it’s beyond joyus,
A few suggestions. Since kei has become larger does this save the mantanzimas?, In our time line Bantu holosmia over threw them. Since the country has taken steps towards in their eyes important reforms, perhaps the boycott movement is lessened. As a chair user, I was thrilled with The accessiblity of the country, and would love to see greater tourism.
 
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