Alternate American Civil War Scenarios

So I’m reading a book right now, Lincoln’s Generals by T. Harry Williams and I’ve found it very interesting to say the least. So it made me wonder, what are alternate scenarios anyone would have in mind on how the Union could've won the Civil War?

And a somewhat unrelated question, I read that twice before he accepted it that Ambrose Burnside refused to be appointed Commander of the Army of the Potomac once when McClellan retreated from Richmond to Harrison’s Landing and right before Antietam. I also want to know what would happen if he accepted either of those and how that could change things.
 
Earlier wins in the Civil War could be Hooker not dropping the ball at Chancellorsville and managing to inflict a heavy defeat on Lee's army, Bull Run ending in a Union victory might suck the wind from the sails of the secessionist cause, Lee dying in his fall from a horse or being severely incapacitated in early 1863, ect.
 
More power to Shermon early on mixed with slave rebellions pushing the south to the negotiation table. In this scenario reconstruction wouldnt be attempted.
 
Earlier wins in the Civil War could be Hooker not dropping the ball at Chancellorsville and managing to inflict a heavy defeat on Lee's army, Bull Run ending in a Union victory might suck the wind from the sails of the secessionist cause, Lee dying in his fall from a horse or being severely incapacitated in early 1863, ect.
Interesting. But would a victory at Bull Run be enough to put the Union over the top. Both armies were green and I can imagine that after the battle, McDowell would still have trouble reorganizing the Army for an advance on Richmond. Not to mention no matter what the union couldn’t in my opinion have whipped the Confederates, they were like I said to green.
 
My read on Burnside is that he got promoted above his ability. He was effective in North Carolina, but the AotP was an entirely different beast. Given his performance at Fredericksburg and the Mud March (more so the latter) I doubt he would be a substantial improvement on lil mac
 
One possible way to win the ACW early is a successful Union cavalry interdiction operation during the ACW during Lee’s retreat from Gettysburg. Instead of keeping Pleasonton as commander of the Cavalry Corps and Meade’s Chief of Staff, Meade uses this as an excuse to relieve Pleasonton from his role as Cavalry Corps commander and replace him with John Buford. IOTL, Pleasonton failed to see the opportunity to barricade Jack's Mountain passes, both of which were narrow and have steep sides. Federal cavalry, supported by artillery, could have bottled up Lee's army there. Lee would have had two options.

a) Fight through the Federal blocking force
b) Taking a longer retreat route, probably the Cashtown pass

Either way, Lee would be delayed and provide Meade more time to get closer to the banks of the Potomac before Lee. Secondly, Pleasonton moved an entire Union cavalry division (Gregg's) to a location where it would be of no discernible use to the immediate pursuit. Finally, Pleasonton totally failed to coordinate the Federal cavalry at all. Buford's and Kilpatrick's efforts to interdict Lee were uncoordinated and disjointed. With Buford in charge, I suspect that Buford would have concentrated his cavalry to delay Lee and launch better efforts to interdict his retreat, we may see Meade on Williamsport first.
 

Marc

Donor
Vicksburg falls at the end of 1862 or within a couple of months later than that. Say, have Van Doren fail in his raid at Holly Springs (given his terrible luck, quite plausible); Grant keeps his supply lines secure and doesn't go into winter quarters, pressing on.
Then, afterwards, under Sherman, XIII and XV corps, head east through southern Mississippi and to Mobile.
The Confederate west crumbles.
 
Last edited:
Vicksburg falls at the end of 1862 or within a couple of months later than that. Say, have Van Doren fail in his raid at Holly Springs (given his terrible luck, quite plausible); Grant keeps his supply lines secure and doesn't go into winter quarters, pressing on.
Then, afterwards, under Sherman, XIII and XV corps, head east through southern Mississippi and to Mobile.
The Confederate west crumbles.

The raid at Holly Springs is a really interesting POD. The garrison forces there had plenty of time to prepare but were caught completely off guard resulting in the death of a fairly prominent Wisconsin Democrat's career.

With Grant still pushing south, Pemberton can't send reinforcements to Vicksburg, nor do the reinforcements from OTL arrive. As a result Sherman doesn't retreat after his defeat at the battle of chickasaw bayou and overwhelms the heavily outnumbered garrison.

One really interesting ramification of an earlier conclusion to the Vicksburg campaign is that Rosecrans' star might shine much brighter. With Vicksburg and the Mississippi under Union control, his command is not only reinforced but becomes the first priority for supplies. As a result he launches the (greatly underrated) Tullahoma campaign earlier. If he manages to take Chatanooga in Spring 1863 in TTL without it being overshadowed by Gettysburg or Vicksburg he could emerge as the most popular Democratic general and a prime VP candidate in 1864.

With the west in utter disarray, Gettysburg probably doesn't happen in TTL. Even if Lee does defeat Hooker at Chancellorsville, Longstreet probably gets sent west earlier.
 
Interesting. But would a victory at Bull Run be enough to put the Union over the top. Both armies were green and I can imagine that after the battle, McDowell would still have trouble reorganizing the Army for an advance on Richmond. Not to mention no matter what the union couldn’t in my opinion have whipped the Confederates, they were like I said to green.

Well, Jefferson Davis was present at Bull Run. A Union victory could very well result in him being killed or captured.
 
One really interesting ramification of an earlier conclusion to the Vicksburg campaign is that Rosecrans' star might shine much brighter. With Vicksburg and the Mississippi under Union control, his command is not only reinforced but becomes the first priority for supplies. As a result he launches the (greatly underrated) Tullahoma campaign earlier. If he manages to take Chatanooga in Spring 1863 in TTL without it being overshadowed by Gettysburg or Vicksburg he could emerge as the most popular Democratic general and a prime VP candidate in 1864.
Can’t a counterpoint be made that an early victory at Vicksburg victory would diminish the goodwill earned by Rosecrans? Rosecrans’ star shone brightly as the only Union commander who did not face setback or disaster in the December 1862. With Vicksburg in Union hands, I don’t see why the Army of the Cumberland would be prioritized. The Army of the Tennessee didn’t exactly get special treatment with weapons when you consider that plenty of regiments were still armed with old muskets and the main halt to Rosecrans’ operations was a need to stockpile supplies for going into the Barrens while working with a vulnerable railroad. The only difference I can imagine is that Rosecrans goes in early June to Tullahoma because whoever is in charge at Kentucky (IOTL Burnside) goes into Knoxville early as planned. However, Rosecrans would be facing an Army of Tennessee that is not weakened by detachments to Vicksburg (Army of Relief).
 
Can’t a counterpoint be made that an early victory at Vicksburg victory would diminish the goodwill earned by Rosecrans? Rosecrans’ star shone brightly as the only Union commander who did not face setback or disaster in the December 1862. With Vicksburg in Union hands, I don’t see why the Army of the Cumberland would be prioritized. The Army of the Tennessee didn’t exactly get special treatment with weapons when you consider that plenty of regiments were still armed with old muskets and the main halt to Rosecrans’ operations was a need to stockpile supplies for going into the Barrens while working with a vulnerable railroad. The only difference I can imagine is that Rosecrans goes in early June to Tullahoma because whoever is in charge at Kentucky (IOTL Burnside) goes into Knoxville early as planned. However, Rosecrans would be facing an Army of Tennessee that is not weakened by detachments to Vicksburg (Army of Relief).

With Vicksburg and thus Port Hudson under Union control I think that Chattanooga becomes the Union's primary strategic objective. Any further operations by Grant/Sherman and their armies in Mississippi and Alabama or any other operations in the West would be regarded as decidedly secondary to seizing that key railroad junction. Given that such operations probably don't butterfly the Battle of Stones River in TTL, I don't think Lincoln could replace Rosecrans so reinforcement is really his only other option. From what I've read, stockpiling supplies was less important to Rosecrans than rebuilding the cavalry units in the AotC as they were necessary to keep Forrest et al. from interfering with supply lines. Given the aforementioned strategic priorities I'd wager a number of cavalry units get transferred to the AotC. I totally agree with you that in TTL the troops detached from the AoT to form the Army of Relief remain and would like to add that likely Johnston's proposal to form a single army is adopted so a good number of the troops who surrendered at Vicksburg in OTL are going to be sent to the AoT as well. I still think Davis and others are going to keep about half in Mississippi/Alabama due to politics though. Basically I'm imagining a massive showdown in Tennessee between most of the Confederate troops in the west and an Army of the Cumberland which has been substantially reinforced and logistically supported. Given that the AoT likely remains under Bragg and all the problems that entails (particularly if Davis uses his influence to give Pemberton a command beneath him!), I think Rosecrans and the AotC have the upper hand in TTL. If he attacks in May 1863 as many wanted him to he could take advantage of amazing weather and perhaps score an even more decisive victory than OTL which is saying something.
 
So I’m reading a book right now, Lincoln’s Generals by T. Harry Williams and I’ve found it very interesting to say the least. So it made me wonder, what are alternate scenarios anyone would have in mind on how the Union could've won the Civil War?

And a somewhat unrelated question, I read that twice before he accepted it that Ambrose Burnside refused to be appointed Commander of the Army of the Potomac once when McClellan retreated from Richmond to Harrison’s Landing and right before Antietam. I also want to know what would happen if he accepted either of those and how that could change things.
At the start of Jackson's Shenandoah campaign he is thrown from his horse and killed. Kimble clears the northern part of the valley clearing McDowell to support McClellan (as planned) for his drive south.

Almost despite himself McClellan seizes Richmond. While the CSA fights on, its back is broken early and the war peters out after successful campaigns occupies Tennessee and Virginia.
 
With Vicksburg and thus Port Hudson under Union control I think that Chattanooga becomes the Union's primary strategic objective. Any further operations by Grant/Sherman and their armies in Mississippi and Alabama or any other operations in the West would be regarded as decidedly secondary to seizing that key railroad junction.
From what I've read, stockpiling supplies was less important to Rosecrans than rebuilding the cavalry units in the AotC as they were necessary to keep Forrest et al. from interfering with supply lines. Given the aforementioned strategic priorities I'd wager a number of cavalry units get transferred to the AotC. I totally agree with you that in TTL the troops detached from the AoT to form the Army of Relief remain and would like to add that likely Johnston's proposal to form a single army is adopted so a good number of the troops who surrendered at Vicksburg in OTL are going to be sent to the AoT as well. I still think Davis and others are going to keep about half in Mississippi/Alabama due to politics though.
Well, but the Western Theater always took a backseat in priority to the Eastern Theater. Defending Washington was the number one priority which was the Army of the Potomac's job at all times and that never changed. The Eastern Theater cavalry were more likely to get the latest technology first, since the safety of nothing less than the Federal capital was at stake. By the beginning of May 1864, nearly the entire Army of the Potomac Cavalry Corps had been armed with Spencer repeating carbines. Many fewer Western Theater units had repeaters, and some never did get them. However, Wilder’s Lightning Brigade, a brigade of mounted infantry armed with Spencer repeating rifles, demonstrated without any question just how effective a unit armed with repeating weapons could be. Wilder’s command was rather literally all over the battlefield at Chickamauga, and no Federal unit played a more important role as a consequence of the combination of maneuverability and firepower. From an ordinance standpoint, the Western Theater seems to have gotten the short shrift.

I still think Davis and others are going to keep about half in Mississippi/Alabama due to politics though. Basically I'm imagining a massive showdown in Tennessee between most of the Confederate troops in the west and an Army of the Cumberland which has been substantially reinforced and logistically supported. Given that the AoT likely remains under Bragg and all the problems that entails (particularly if Davis uses his influence to give Pemberton a command beneath him!), I think Rosecrans and the AotC have the upper hand in TTL. If he attacks in May 1863 as many wanted him to he could take advantage of amazing weather and perhaps score an even more decisive victory than OTL which is saying something.
I think you underestimate Bragg's position during the Tullahoma Campaign. The Army of Tennessee was deployed behind a series of hills with three narrow gaps (Hoover, Liberty, and Guy, from east to west, respectively) that would prove critical in anticipating any Union moves as they served as choke points to stymie the Federals—if they could be held. Rosecrans had the advantage of attacking Bragg after Morgan got his command destroyed in an idiotic raid and just as Wheeler shifted the balance of his horse soldiers to the left from the right for a raid on Rosecrans' rear. If the Army of Tennessee was reinforced, then Bragg stands a chance of executing his original concept of holding the Unionists at the gaps and throw Polk (his center) forward to maul a portion of the Army of the Cumberland.
 
Another question. Lincoln wanted to replace McClellan when he was still with his army at Harrison’s landing. Let’s say he does and they march back up the Peninsula under a different and more able General who knows their numbers, could the Union win and get to Richmond or is it too late.
 
Well, but the Western Theater always took a backseat in priority to the Eastern Theater. Defending Washington was the number one priority which was the Army of the Potomac's job at all times and that never changed. The Eastern Theater cavalry were more likely to get the latest technology first, since the safety of nothing less than the Federal capital was at stake. By the beginning of May 1864, nearly the entire Army of the Potomac Cavalry Corps had been armed with Spencer repeating carbines. Many fewer Western Theater units had repeaters, and some never did get them. However, Wilder’s Lightning Brigade, a brigade of mounted infantry armed with Spencer repeating rifles, demonstrated without any question just how effective a unit armed with repeating weapons could be. Wilder’s command was rather literally all over the battlefield at Chickamauga, and no Federal unit played a more important role as a consequence of the combination of maneuverability and firepower. From an ordinance standpoint, the Western Theater seems to have gotten the short shrift.

I should have been more clear. Obviously D.C. is still the overall strategic priority for the Union, but in the West Chattanooga is going to be the next major goal after the Mississippi is secured. In OTL rifles weren't the issue for Rosecrans, horses were as many of his mounted units were using mules! I don't think that's going to be as much of a problem in TTL as I think units like the 6th and 7th Illinois and 2nd Iowa cavalry regiments get transferred to the AotC.

I think you underestimate Bragg's position during the Tullahoma Campaign. The Army of Tennessee was deployed behind a series of hills with three narrow gaps (Hoover, Liberty, and Guy, from east to west, respectively) that would prove critical in anticipating any Union moves as they served as choke points to stymie the Federals—if they could be held. Rosecrans had the advantage of attacking Bragg after Morgan got his command destroyed in an idiotic raid and just as Wheeler shifted the balance of his horse soldiers to the left from the right for a raid on Rosecrans' rear. If the Army of Tennessee was reinforced, then Bragg stands a chance of executing his original concept of holding the Unionists at the gaps and throw Polk (his center) forward to maul a portion of the Army of the Cumberland.

I agree that Bragg's reinforced army stands a chance of stopping Rosecrans after all he nearly did at Chickamauga. It all depends on how the exact details turn out after Vicksburg falls. You make a good point about Bragg's lack of cavalry during OTL's Tullahoma campaign, but would he necessarily be more cautious in TTL? I'm not convinced. A major raid/offensive into Kentucky was a favored tactic of the Confederates as it amplified their own strengths while minimizing the Union's.
 

Marc

Donor
Keep in mind that with an early Vicksburg scenario, the South more rapidly begins to struggle with supplies, and that Grant is now available to roll east; I suspect that he would do quite well.
With my speculation about a post-Vicksburg Sherman march to Mobile, essentially the South is going to effectively lose Miss, Ala, and possibly most of Georgia by the summer of '63.
The war is over by '64.
 
Keep in mind that with an early Vicksburg scenario, the South more rapidly begins to struggle with supplies, and that Grant is now available to roll east; I suspect that he would do quite well.
With my speculation about a post-Vicksburg Sherman march to Mobile, essentially the South is going to effectively lose Miss, Ala, and possibly most of Georgia by the summer of '63.
The war is over by '64.

Though I agree that the South is going to struggle with supplies after an earlier fall of Vicksburg and that the war likely ends in 1864, I'm not sure that they're going to effectively lose Miss, Ala, and Georgia by summer 1863. Even in OTL, the South held onto those areas well after Vicksburg's fall in OTL largely due to poor infrastructure in the region. Like I said earlier I think any offensive from Grant into those regions is going to suffer from Chattanooga being prioritized in the Western Theater. At best I think there will be some limited offensives due to my previously explained hypothesis of a massive showdown between a reinforced Army of the Cumberland and Army of Tennessee.

Speaking of Grant "rolling east" though, I do wonder. Say Vicksburg falls to Sherman circa January 7, 1863 due to no Holly Oaks raid. Would this victory be enough to get Lincoln to consider replacing Burnside with Grant instead of Hooker? Getting Grant to reorganize the AotP and take on Lee would be a far more effective use for him than having him burn through the Deep South which could be left to less talented generals.
 
So I’m reading a book right now, Lincoln’s Generals by T. Harry Williams and I’ve found it very interesting to say the least. So it made me wonder, what are alternate scenarios anyone would have in mind on how the Union could've won the Civil War?

And a somewhat unrelated question, I read that twice before he accepted it that Ambrose Burnside refused to be appointed Commander of the Army of the Potomac once when McClellan retreated from Richmond to Harrison’s Landing and right before Antietam. I also want to know what would happen if he accepted either of those and how that could change things.
What if early submarines had been more common ?
 
I should have been more clear. Obviously D.C. is still the overall strategic priority for the Union, but in the West Chattanooga is going to be the next major goal after the Mississippi is secured. In OTL rifles weren't the issue for Rosecrans, horses were as many of his mounted units were using mules! I don't think that's going to be as much of a problem in TTL as I think units like the 6th and 7th Illinois and 2nd Iowa cavalry regiments get transferred to the AotC.
Right, but the Armies of the Tennessee and the Gulf had very little cavalry to spare to begin with. Grant’s cavalry at the Vicksburg Campaign at best amounted to two brigades: Grierson’s and individual cavalry regiments that guided Grant’s troops through Mississippi countryside. Grierson’s Brigade never left Mississippi even when Sherman and Johnston were fighting for Atlanta. They spent the war fighting and raiding the rest of Confederate Mississippi. Why would it change now?
I agree that Bragg's reinforced army stands a chance of stopping Rosecrans after all he nearly did at Chickamauga. It all depends on how the exact details turn out after Vicksburg falls. You make a good point about Bragg's lack of cavalry during OTL's Tullahoma campaign, but would he necessarily be more cautious in TTL? I'm not convinced. A major raid/offensive into Kentucky was a favored tactic of the Confederates as it amplified their own strengths while minimizing the Union's.
Without fleshing out a TL, I agree that we can’t make any conclusions.
 
Top