Alternate 1980, Who Wins?

Who Would Win?

  • Ronald Reagan/Richard Schweicker

    Votes: 25 43.1%
  • Ted Kennedy/Dale Bumpers

    Votes: 33 56.9%

  • Total voters
    58
What if Reagan wins the GOP nomination in '76 and beats Carter/Mondale with Schweicker as his VP. Say 1976-1980 goes very similar to OTL. In 1980 Ted Kennedy gets the Dem nomination and selects Dale Bumpers as his VP. Who wins if Iran Hostage crisis is resolved? Who Wins If It is not?
 
Iran is not the big ticket issue in 1980. The big issue is stagflation. If Reagan fails to handle that (and all signs point to that he was just hit with an incredible streak of luck IOTL), he's out on his ass in 1980. I doubt Kennedy runs, though. For the most part, Kennedy only ran in 1980 because (a) Carter was in office and he did so as a liberal protest with no hope of winning the nomination (b) So Democratic bigwigs would quit bugging him about it.

So most likely you have Senator and then President Walter Mondale.
 
I see the same two big ticket issues hostage crisis and the economy. there is alsothe fact that with biig Democratic majorities in Congress Reagan has inacted very little of his program.
 
If Reagan institutes policies similar to 1980-1988, then he probably looses. If he embraces monetarism and high interest rates than he prolly wins.
 
If Reagan institutes policies similar to 1980-1988, then he probably looses. If he embraces monetarism and high interest rates than he prolly wins.

Actually, that would probably make him lose worse. Reagan tried that in 1981-83 and the result was 10% unemployment and stronger Democratic majorities. Which is why he then shifted away from it.
 

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What if Reagan gets nasty in 80' and goes after Kennedy (if he is the nominee) on Chappaquiddick?

I think could sink his candidacy which is why I think the nominee will be Mondale or someone similar. Kennedy will be the candidate of the Democrats "hearts", and Mondale the campaign of their "heads", if you will.

IMO Mondale beats Reagan but not by as much as Reagan beat Carter OTL.

But the Iran Hostage Crisis brings us to an intresting point: How will Reagan's response differ from Carters? Maybe nasty response to failure of rescue operation (if it were to fail as in OTL).
 
Good point on monetarism. While it did lower inflation, it did lead to a recession that hurt Reagan quite a bit. Then again, it had to be done to ensure long-term economic growth.

In regards to the Democratic Primary, I think that Kennedy would be quite hard to beat if he ran a better campaign than in OTL. But if he makes the same mistakes then Mondale is the major benefactor. He can swoop in and take much of Ted's labor and minority support. But he would be a much worse candidate in the general, because he has the charisma of a lump of gray clay. Quite frankly, Fritz Mondale would have a hard time ever winning the White House.
 
Good point on monetarism. While it did lower inflation, it did lead to a recession that hurt Reagan quite a bit. Then again, it had to be done to ensure long-term economic growth.

In regards to the Democratic Primary, I think that Kennedy would be quite hard to beat if he ran a better campaign than in OTL. But if he makes the same mistakes then Mondale is the major benefactor. He can swoop in and take much of Ted's labor and minority support. But he would be a much worse candidate in the general, because he has the charisma of a lump of gray clay. Quite frankly, Fritz Mondale would have a hard time ever winning the White House.

It depends on how early it's implemented and whether we still have significant oil shocks. If the fed allows rates to rise to force a contraction of the money supply around '77 and the US avoids the gas crisis of '79 then Reagan could get re-elected. On the other hand, in OTL Volcker being nominated was a bit of a fluke and he didn't really aggressively hike rates until 1982 -- with the Reagan administration being less than thrilled by his actions there. I'd imagine that if Reagan does get a second term in this TL the margin is much closer, think along the lines of Bush circa 2004 basically. Although frankly given how tarnished Kennedy's reputation was at this point I sort of doubt he could get nominated without Carter's perceived incompetence and milquetoast centrism alienating liberals like OTL.
 
To begin with Reagan there would not have been a Iranian Hostage situation. His foreign policy would have been quite different from Carters.
His economic policy would have been different from Carters also and it is doubtful that there would have been the massive inflation that happen with Carter. Instead of words there might have been more of a real effort to make the US energy independent by increase production and the development of energy sources in the US.
 
To begin with Reagan there would not have been a Iranian Hostage situation. His foreign policy would have been quite different from Carters.
His economic policy would have been different from Carters also and it is doubtful that there would have been the massive inflation that happen with Carter. Instead of words there might have been more of a real effort to make the US energy independent by increase production and the development of energy sources in the US.

Well the funny thing is that Carter was a fiscal conservative. In fact, he prioritized a balanced budget over job creation. He also was very committed to an energy plan. However, he wasn't able to work with Congress very well on either issue. With Reagan facing a heavily Democratic Congress, he'll probably run into similar problems. So he's probably in big trouble in 1980 also.
 

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To begin with Reagan there would not have been a Iranian Hostage situation.

So he wouldn't support the Shah in 1979?

Instead of words there might have been more of a real effort to make the US energy independent by increase production and the development of energy sources in the US.

You mean like the one Carter began before Reagan scraped it?
 
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