Hello all.
I have a few questions regarding an alternate 1848, specifically how they touch Austria. Departure point is roughly 1836.
Firstly, many of the things that happened between 1836 and 1848 may be quite improbable, the thing is however they cannot be changed as this is from a type of game I am playing/helping to run, and for that reason it can be difficult to moderate consistency.
Anyways, to discuss how things have changed, and how I intend to handle the early changes:
For starters there was a war between most of Europe and Russia in 1841, including Austria. Who started it is up for debate, nevertheless it would have an effect even though it ended after only a year.
Out of the war however I felt I needed to establish slightly closer relations with France (due to the uncertainty of Russia and of Prussia at the time) which enabled me to, for a very large sum, sell Lombardy to Sardinia which was to facilitate that tightening of relations with France.
I have also made it clear that I do not intend to get involved in Italy unless they do something I cannot accept, such as attack outright one of my relatives, and that I may be willing to sell parts of Venetia (but not Venice itself) if push comes to shove.
This frees up the large proportion of the Italian army.
I have also done a few smaller things, taking the last steps to abolish serfdom in 1843 I think, and a couple little things, mainly so that Metternich could stay in power. I also intend to promise Bohemia a representative assembly to keep them loyal (and then follow through on the promise), and I did manage to establish a land owning based one for Austria, partially as a compensation to landowners for the removal of serfdom.
Anyways, assuming that Russia does not get involved, at least not directly with armies, the Italian army is free to maneuver (as well as ever so slightly more competent) and that Metternich remains in power, how do you see 1848 working out?
For starters the big thing would be the Austrian/Hungarian revolts. With an army ready to go, how would Hungary play out? How would Austria play out if I don't bargain with the revolutionaries? They were largely students and people they could drag along from what I could tell.
How would things go with Frankfurt? I don't imagine that Metternich, if he was able to, would permit the thing to last. I am personally of the opinion he would send an army to deal with it when he could, so perhaps letting it be (though not participating) or perhaps trying to deal with it in other ways, until the situation in Austria is stable enough to send a force?
What other ways could Metternich deal with the situation without having to resort to force? I don't think he could in any way recognize the legality of Frankfurt.
How would this go over in the minor German States? One difference is that Ludwig in Bavaria is already gone with his historical successor in early. At any rate, while it may make Austria out to be more the bad guy, by how much?