Alternate 1836-1848 and Austria in the Revolutions

Hello all.

I have a few questions regarding an alternate 1848, specifically how they touch Austria. Departure point is roughly 1836.

Firstly, many of the things that happened between 1836 and 1848 may be quite improbable, the thing is however they cannot be changed as this is from a type of game I am playing/helping to run, and for that reason it can be difficult to moderate consistency.

Anyways, to discuss how things have changed, and how I intend to handle the early changes:

For starters there was a war between most of Europe and Russia in 1841, including Austria. Who started it is up for debate, nevertheless it would have an effect even though it ended after only a year.

Out of the war however I felt I needed to establish slightly closer relations with France (due to the uncertainty of Russia and of Prussia at the time) which enabled me to, for a very large sum, sell Lombardy to Sardinia which was to facilitate that tightening of relations with France.
I have also made it clear that I do not intend to get involved in Italy unless they do something I cannot accept, such as attack outright one of my relatives, and that I may be willing to sell parts of Venetia (but not Venice itself) if push comes to shove.
This frees up the large proportion of the Italian army.

I have also done a few smaller things, taking the last steps to abolish serfdom in 1843 I think, and a couple little things, mainly so that Metternich could stay in power. I also intend to promise Bohemia a representative assembly to keep them loyal (and then follow through on the promise), and I did manage to establish a land owning based one for Austria, partially as a compensation to landowners for the removal of serfdom.

Anyways, assuming that Russia does not get involved, at least not directly with armies, the Italian army is free to maneuver (as well as ever so slightly more competent) and that Metternich remains in power, how do you see 1848 working out?

For starters the big thing would be the Austrian/Hungarian revolts. With an army ready to go, how would Hungary play out? How would Austria play out if I don't bargain with the revolutionaries? They were largely students and people they could drag along from what I could tell.

How would things go with Frankfurt? I don't imagine that Metternich, if he was able to, would permit the thing to last. I am personally of the opinion he would send an army to deal with it when he could, so perhaps letting it be (though not participating) or perhaps trying to deal with it in other ways, until the situation in Austria is stable enough to send a force?
What other ways could Metternich deal with the situation without having to resort to force? I don't think he could in any way recognize the legality of Frankfurt.

How would this go over in the minor German States? One difference is that Ludwig in Bavaria is already gone with his historical successor in early. At any rate, while it may make Austria out to be more the bad guy, by how much?
 
Hum. The Austrians won 1848 by removing the grievances of the peasant masses and then smashing the thin foam of students in frilly shirts, hungry proletarians, and patriotic aristrocrats with their armies (the earlier Galician Slaughter is a useful microcosm, though a very extreme example, of course). If the peasants began to be emancipated earlier on, that takes a lot of oomph out of the revolution in Hungary in particular. The nobility and emergant middle-class were awash with nationalism, but their armies were sharked up from peasants which they raised by offering emancipation themselves.

I'm honestly wondering if "1848" will exist at all, as such: the various crises may come and go around about that time, which I think is a fascinating scenario to explore.

Looking at the Czechs, the growing middle-class had been largely recruited to the National Revival (which the Austrians had encouraged in its very early phases, ironically: poems in peasant languages were less dangerous than revolutionary plots, they thought) and there was a plan afoot to get the local diets reformed (with more frequent sessions, a cleaned-up and expanded franchise, and more financial oversight) and the use of Czech in official circles invigorated by withholding funds.

If Austria made similar concessions so early that this plan of campaign became unnecessary, the Czechs are pretty much won for Austroslavism for now: the peasants are happy enough that they've had feudal obligations removed, the middle-class are also appeased. Once Austro-Slavism's out of the bottle, though, the Croats will want a slice too.

The Czech example, the greater freedom of their serfs, and the stronger Austrian position generally will discourage the Hungarians movement from chancing their luck, and I think they'd probably settle for what the Czechs get. 1848 Hungary becomes another 1848 Galicia: riots broken up, a few rowdy students shot at, but the local forces are quite capable of keeping control without help.

If we assume there's still a revolution in France, which assuming France hasn't itself been doing things much differantly since 1836 is certainly likely, then that still unleashes the revolution in Germany (again assuming that things are broadly the same). Austria would in that case, I think, merely be part of the German revolution: lots of students and proleterians protesting in the cities, a wave of liberal concessions, Frankfurt falling through, and finally the reaction against the radicals setting in.

So, a revolution in Vienna and Prague, essentially. If the Austrian state, however, has been changing since 1836, it might be less mouldy. The main thing was it's financial and general inefficiency. If Metternich had gotten free reign to fix Austria's budget and done well, he might manage to calm the mob with a relaxation of censorship and maintain himself in power.

(Over in Prague, the consequences that set in if German students decide to go down in a blaze of glory while the Czech nationalist movement stays firmly Hapsburg are... interesting.)

If Metternich can't talk his way out of it but has much firmer pillars to fall back on, he might also just do what the Emperor did: decamp, rally the peasants, and send in the army.

Either way, Austria gets out without any serious wars, just a lot of riots and disturbances - certainly no Russians which, by the way, butterflies the development of Slovak nationalism since it historically encouraged strong pan-Slavism and faith in Russia: a more Czech-oriented Slovak movement and literary standard, perhaps?

That being the case, it would be pretty easy for Austria to put its foot down and end Frankfurt. Call its own men home (or never send them) and order each minor state to do the same, and then let somebody's dragoons clear up the radicals and riff-raff. The upshot, of course, is that Prussia can't realisticallt try and challenge Austria's monopoly of power in Germany (for now).

Italy's the fascinating one! If Lombardy's gone over to Sardinia, it presumably falls within the Sardinian constitution or gets one of its own, at least. Part of the reason the Lombards and Venetians were so eager to revolt in 1848 was that they'd missed the bus on tentative liberalisation in the peninsula since 1846. For Lombards that's not the case.

The question is whether it is for Venetians. Have they received any concessions to calm them? If not, and they still raise a revolt and take charge of Venice, things get interesting. Sardinia-Lombardy is stronger than Sardinia - perhaps less beholden to Italian radicals when the rveolution comes, but they'll still be influential. The Sardinians might still decide to make war, banking on a fait-accompli in Venetia; and they might get one.

Britain wanted the Austrians to quit northern Italy and the Sardinians to move in OTL. If the Sardinians rush in to support Venetian rebels but encounter a minimally-distracted Austrian army, two broad things could happen:

-Radetzky crushes them and saves the day. Certainly, without any other outcome, the Austrians win in the end.

-Britain rushes in to try and mediate. Perhaps the Sardinians do indeed get "parts" of Venetia as somebody (Palmerstone?) had said in 1848 OTL.

Either way, I'm left wondering what happens to the rest of Italy. Austria, even if it drove the Sardinians back, won't find it such an easy job to march into Tuscany.
 
Interesting points, and thank you for the reply.

Working from the top, the Czech situation is an interesting one and not one I have had all that much chance to look into as it was really one of the less dangerous areas all things considered.
I don't actually mind the idea of Austro-Slavism as you termed it, I am wanting to work towards a more federalized Austria anyways, with Croatia, Slovakia, Transylvania brought out from Hungary's sphere and it balanced more all around. I posted a map of what I was thinking in my earlier thread, perhaps I ought to dig the map up again.

Regarding Hungary itself, I find it very difficult to decipher, would they really not revolt to the same level as they did? I know that the lower classes, while not subject to serfdom, still were under some domination from the nobles, but would it really avoid that much? It was such a major event in history that it would seem to require a lot to avoid.
Assuming it was, would I still have enough impetuous to split it up, or would that require something larger? I think in the long term it would be better to have it and split it up than to not have it and have it remain as it is.

France will probably be only worse, they got themselves in a big mess of a war in Morocco, so I imagine it will start the dominoes falling. Germany hasn't changed all that much, though Prussia is attempting to work its way to a more liberal status, and Bavaria has done a couple small things differently.

What would happen, however, if the Prussian king decided to push more for unification in 1848? I understand that the Prussian army wasn't as conservative as it would be come, but if done at Frankfurt, would the Army back the thing? What if Prussia tried it through other means? Austria at this point would have difficulty accepting it.

I would consider that the finances have been set in relative order. It is in the surplus, the large sum (£2,000,000 a year for 15 years) from Sardinia for Lombardy, as well as a liberalization of trade (both internal and external) which, due to the brief Russian war, has seen Hungary take a larger share of the agricultural export pie, as well as a deal with the Zollverein removing customs entirely (and the option for Austria later on joining it directly when our commercial treaties with the UK/US/France run out). A few key railways were constructed, and a few other small things.

With that in mind, you do think it possible for Metternich to relax censorship? I had been wanting to but I wasn't sure when or how, and it would certainly deal with some of the problems.
At any rate, I do think he will have some support, he has taken a slightly more liberal path, has a slightly higher position and has a few good friends in government.

I never thought of just outright ordering the smaller states not to go to Frankfurt, I suppose as President of the German Confed that would do the trick.


I suppose Italy is far from secure, I still do have a sizable garrison in Venice, but I also have, from what I know, a quasi-understanding with the French and Sardinians. I am willing to sell off the western half of Venetia (I split it off as Verona) as long as they let me hold onto Venice and leave me alone, at least for now. I have wanted to make a few concessions to Venetia, however aside from the serfdom which would apply to the Italian possessions as well, I wanted to make sure I didn't do too much and do things too perfectly, so it could very well could still revolt. I do think I replaced Archduke Rainer, though I am not sure.

I made it clear that a direct attack on Tuscany or Modena would bring me in, however if the people 'convince' their kings to unite etc etc, I will turn a blind eye. I think this is semi plausible; I know Metternich stated at one time that "Italy is not a nation, it is a geographical term," but times have changed a little bit, and as one of you said in my original thread, I have to choose between Italy and Germany, and I made my choice. I would prefer a friendly unified Italy, or at least one not angry with me, due to the fact I may be in dire need of continental allies anyways. (I may even give them Trento, though I need to keep Trieste in the long run.)

I actually maneuvered Radetzky into the top post in the Austrian Army after the war, and his second in command in Italy is now his second in command here, Heinrich von Heß I believe. It should be interesting to see how that proceeds, a long with a couple long term changes I am making.

A British intervention would be interesting...
 
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