Alt ww2

I had this idea of a ww2 that happens differently. Instead of the Nazis, a different regeime takes power in Germany. This regime is still irredentist and nationalist, but without the Lebensraum or antisemitism. In this alt ww2 it, it will just be Germany restoring its 1914 borders, maybe with Anchluss too.

Is this plausible? Would Germany have a good chance at winning this alt ww2? Part of the reason Germany lost otl was overextension, so I would think all that massive industrial and military power used in a more limited scope would work well.
 
No, it would not work well.

The wrong assumption behind the notion that the amount of force A, which did not work in enterprise X, might work in enterprise X-y, is that in order to field A, you have already paid its cost $$$. So undertaking a smaller enterprise should surely work.

Unfortunately, if you have only paid $, and have borrowed/postponed the payment of $$, then you cannot give up y and be satisfied with X-y - because you can't extract the value $$ from X-y. You need y too.

To move this from theory to a practical example, the Germans could not make do without occupying Prague and turning the rump Czechoslovakia in an exploited Protectorate and a subservient satellite state, because they needed, among other things, the Czech gold reserve which was in Prague, and the reasonably good Czech tanks, and the factories producing them.

And that's not the end of it.

You are taking stuff away from other powers. They don't want to give you anything; not X, and not X-y. You take "only" Pomerania and Gdansk from Poland? That leaves a living and kicking Polish state that will remain at war with you. You take "only" Alsace and Lorraine? That leaves a living and screaming French state that will remain at war with you. The same applies everywhere else.
 
No, it would not work well.

The wrong assumption behind the notion that the amount of force A, which did not work in enterprise X, might work in enterprise X-y, is that in order to field A, you have already paid its cost $$$. So undertaking a smaller enterprise should surely work.

Unfortunately, if you have only paid $, and have borrowed/postponed the payment of $$, then you cannot give up y and be satisfied with X-y - because you can't extract the value $$ from X-y. You need y too.

To move this from theory to a practical example, the Germans could not make do without occupying Prague and turning the rump Czechoslovakia in an exploited Protectorate and a subservient satellite state, because they needed, among other things, the Czech gold reserve which was in Prague, and the reasonably good Czech tanks, and the factories producing them.

And that's not the end of it.

You are taking stuff away from other powers. They don't want to give you anything; not X, and not X-y. You take "only" Pomerania and Gdansk from Poland? That leaves a living and kicking Polish state that will remain at war with you. You take "only" Alsace and Lorraine? That leaves a living and screaming French state that will remain at war with you. The same applies everywhere else.

Yes Nazi Germanies use of MEFO Bills allowed it to 'steal a march' over it neighbors with regards to modernizing its industries and rebuilding its military, who were answerable to their electorate unlike the Nazis who were not.

Indeed the only possible way in which Nazi Germany could ever repay those bills was by conquest and taking the riches of said neighbors.

It was otherwise unsustainable for the German economy
 
And that was only one of the sleight-of-hand economy tricks. Those bills were of an order of magnitude less weighty than the state bonds that would be come due in 1940, mostly owned by individual German savings accounts and by German banks. Germany had outstanding foreign trade payments due, etc.
 
No, it would not work well.

The wrong assumption behind the notion that the amount of force A, which did not work in enterprise X, might work in enterprise X-y, is that in order to field A, you have already paid its cost $$$. So undertaking a smaller enterprise should surely work.

Unfortunately, if you have only paid $, and have borrowed/postponed the payment of $$, then you cannot give up y and be satisfied with X-y - because you can't extract the value $$ from X-y. You need y too.

To move this from theory to a practical example, the Germans could not make do without occupying Prague and turning the rump Czechoslovakia in an exploited Protectorate and a subservient satellite state, because they needed, among other things, the Czech gold reserve which was in Prague, and the reasonably good Czech tanks, and the factories producing them.

And that's not the end of it.

You are taking stuff away from other powers. They don't want to give you anything; not X, and not X-y. You take "only" Pomerania and Gdansk from Poland? That leaves a living and kicking Polish state that will remain at war with you. You take "only" Alsace and Lorraine? That leaves a living and screaming French state that will remain at war with you. The same applies everywhere else.
You are right of course. Yet I think it is an interesting thought experiment to see how far a not-insane German government would comeexpanding Germany. Obviousy Germany can't get Alsace-Lorraine without a war with France. And any war with France would draw in the UK. I think getting western Poland (the Corridor/Posen) would be impossible without a war against Poland. And a war against Poland would draw in France and the UK. That said, I do believe it is possible, but extremly hard for Germany to diplomaticaly isolate Poland in such a way that France decides not to declare war on Germany. Mind you, I have no clue how, but I don't think it is completely impossible.
 
Mind you, I have no clue how, but I don't think it is completely impossible.

I'd be glad to see a plausible scenario. I think the main problems are two:

1. The sequence was what it was for very good reasons. It is not more effective to go at Poland before than at Czechoslovakia, or, worse, Austria.
2. By late 1938, the sequence of events looks like one of those early movies, where things move impossibly fast. A credible isolation of Poland after the final dismemberment of Czechoslovakia would have required diplomacy's times. Many more months, a year or two possibly. But Germany did not enjoy the luxury of many months. The British and the French had finally understood the endgame, and were rearming as fast as they could without going bankrupt. Germany, in turn, was ahead in the armament process - but on the verge of going bankrupt. The Poles were purchasing French tanks. Time was most definitely not on Germany's side. So it's difficult, probably impossible, to carefully build a convincing diplomatic case.
 
You are taking stuff away from other powers. They don't want to give you anything; not X, and not X-y. You take "only" Pomerania and Gdansk from Poland? That leaves a living and kicking Polish state that will remain at war with you. You take "only" Alsace and Lorraine? That leaves a living and screaming French state that will remain at war with you. The same applies everywhere else.
Well, of course there would be war. But could Germany beat up Poland and France into accepting the new status quo? An advantage here is that Germany does not attack Russia here.
 

NoMommsen

Donor
Yes Nazi Germanies use of MEFO Bills allowed it to 'steal a march' over it neighbors with regards to modernizing its industries and rebuilding its military, who were answerable to their electorate unlike the Nazis who were not.

Indeed the only possible way in which Nazi Germany could ever repay those bills was by conquest and taking the riches of said neighbors.

It was otherwise unsustainable for the German economy
That's (the underlined) some arguement I've already seen soo often. ... unfortunatly never really followed by an explanation.

First
To pay these bills back Reichsbank and Minister of Finance Schwerin-Krosigk had at the end of 1938 worked out a repayment plan within the normal budget, the normal peace budget, without any maybe-wanna-have loot and 'taking the riches' of any neighbour.

Second
When the bills started to become liable in 1938 the goverment was already in such a power position, thast it could have changed the conditions of repayment any time to (almost ?) any condition wished by the goverment (to keep the german industry, finance and other economy calm they didn't choose very 'radical' ways in doing so, only a few prolongations here and there).

Third
In 1938 these 'bills' served already 'other' financial interests as they could be used to pimp balances and balance sheets. They were also used as kind of 'tender' as companies payed each other with them without the detour at the Reichsbank.

Fourth
These 'bills' were nothing that was publicitly 'traded' (apart from the use as as-if money named above). There amount was a well kept secret and this public debts mostly unkown - aside from the civil servants and Reichsbank clerks involved.
As this debt was a complete domestic debt it had no influence on international finance as well. These were 'hindered' by other reasons.
And as purely domestic debt the goverment could do wiht them whatever it wants :
  • postpone them - if wish - almost indefinitly
  • cancel them completly
  • ...
Within the totalitarian system it would be rather unlikely, that someone would protest. ... he would have very quickly found a special lead-badge for exceptional services plase within his head or similar.
... and every economic leader knew this.


The NaZi economy was NOT suffering from its internal debts nor from external debts (for that Schachts "New Plan" was to cleverly implemented). It was by far not the worst debtor around on international markets though admitted not the best reagrded either.
It was suffering from a lack of access to forex and gold to keep and more importan increase the inflow of demanded not yet replacable raw materials running.

It was the demand for more, more, MOOAARRE that IMHO broke the NaZi economy its neck (apart from a dozen other, not as 'big' but still contributing reasons).
No a debts problem.

With a bit smaller 'demands' abroad (border 'corrections') as well as domestic (economy) and run by a wee bit less chaotic BigWigs at the helm reducing the chaoticocracy created by Hitler ... thereby reducing the extent of the Great-War follow-up ... IMHO well within possible financial and economiical margins.
 
Well, of course there would be war. But could Germany beat up Poland and France into accepting the new status quo?

No. A long war on a static front was exactly what France was ready for, also relying on the British naval blockade of Germany.

An advantage here is that Germany does not attack Russia here.

Nor do they get any supplies out of the Soviet Union.

By only wanting the 1914 borders, the Germans aren't getting the Czech gold reserves, the Czech tanks (which were far superior to the Pz Is and IIs) and the factories producing them.

By renouncing to the occupation of Norway, the Germans don't get an easy out into the Atlantic for their surface raiders and U-Boote.

If they only invade the territories that in 1914 belonged to Germany, they aren't occupying all of Belgium, Luxembourg and Netherlands - meaning that they have to advance into Alsace-Lorraine on a short frontage, in difficult terrain, straight into the Maginot Line, exactly where the French are waiting for them.
 
That's (the underlined) some arguement I've already seen soo often. ... unfortunatly never really followed by an explanation.

The reason why you never found an explanation is probably that you never looked for it hard enough, and in any case, your post seems to show that you don't thoroughly understand the issue.
Try reading this:

https://cupola.gettysburg.edu/cgi/v...le.com/&httpsredir=1&article=1188&context=ghj

Schacht, in January 1939, wrote a letter to Hitler, that brought about his dismissal (and replacement with the more pliable Funk). Among other things, Schacht had written (these are only excerpts):

"Especially in the field of daily requirements for the home and clothing, the lack of supply and above all the decline of quality is most evident."

"We are, however, faced with the fact that approximately three billion Reichsmark of such drafts cannot now be paid, though they will be due in 1939."

"Exclusive of the Reichsbank there are approximately six billion Reichsmark 'Mefo' drafts which can be discounted against cash payment at any time at the Reichsbank, which fact represents a continuous danger to the currency."

"We are convinced that the effects on the currency caused by the policy of the last ten months can be mended, and that the danger of inflation again can be eliminated by strict maintenance of a balanced budget."

"We therefore ask for the following measures:
(1) The Reich as well as all the other public offices must not incur expenditure or assume guarantees and obligations that cannot be covered by taxes, or by those funds which can be raised through loans without disturbing the long-term investment market.
(2) In order to carry out these measures effectively, full financial control over all public expenditures must be restored to the Reich Minister of Finance.
(3) The price and wage control must be rendered effective. The existing mismanagement must be eliminated."
(4) The use of the money and investment market must be at the sole discretion of the Reichsbank."

The essay quoted above states:
"While the supply shortage of early 1939 caused the working class to lose confidence in the Nazis’ economic prowess, MeFo bills did the same for businesses and banks. The MeFo bills that jumpstarted Germany’s miraculous recovery also threatened it the most. In March 1938, Schacht ended MeFo financing because he felt the system had gotten out of control.70 Finally Schacht had found a predicament from which he could not slither out. Many MeFo bills were also reaching maturity and the Reichsbank had to pay back the bills’ worth to their holders. But Hitler wanted to continue financing rearmament to the fullest. Schacht tried to sell long-term bonds to MeFo bills creditors instead of giving them hard cash, but they would not buy.71 His only recourse was to print money and run a deficit. But the rearmament campaign still demanded money as well. To plug this hole, in October 1938, Schacht tried to sell four packages of long-term bonds to the public, each containing 1.5 billion RM. Surprisingly, private savers and insurances funds bought the first three packages but the fourth one suffered a massive failure in late November after Schacht introduced it.72 The financiers of the Nazi economy had lost confidence a couple of months before the workers did at the start of 1939." (bold is mine)

So by early 1939, the so-called perfect storm was approaching. No foreign country wanted to deal in Reichsmarks. Germany tried to do international trade by barter, but they actually had little to export (no consumer goods because they were not producing those; little in the way of armaments because their armed forces wanted those). They managed to strong-arm Romania into a disadvantageous such agreement, but Poland (guess what) said no.
At home, sure the Nazis could unilaterally postpone the payment of the state bonds that came due in 1940 - which they did in OTL, and refuse to pay the MeFo bills - but it is one thing to do that as a wartime measure, and another thing to do that in peacetime. They could use the Gestapo in peacetime too, but they would instantly lose the support of their influential backers, the industrialists and wealthier uppoer classes. They were already losing the support of the workers, who couldn't procure decent food or clothing for their families.
The next step would be the bankruptcy of minor banks and insurance funds, which had invested too much in state bonds and MeFo bills. That would start the panic. Just like the RM was no longer accepted abroad, it would catastrophically lose value at home. Whoever could, say small businesses and shops, would raise prices. Inflation would be rampant.
The government would then enforce stricter price control measures - which, as you should know if you really want to discuss these things, causes the wares to disappear from the shelves and the black market to boom. Even higher prices, higher inflation.
Smaller factories would then go bankrupt, lay the workers off, and stop supplying ancillary parts to larger factories, including those producing armaments.
 
No. A long war on a static front was exactly what France was ready for, also relying on the British naval blockade of Germany.



Nor do they get any supplies out of the Soviet Union.

By only wanting the 1914 borders, the Germans aren't getting the Czech gold reserves, the Czech tanks (which were far superior to the Pz Is and IIs) and the factories producing them.

By renouncing to the occupation of Norway, the Germans don't get an easy out into the Atlantic for their surface raiders and U-Boote.

If they only invade the territories that in 1914 belonged to Germany, they aren't occupying all of Belgium, Luxembourg and Netherlands - meaning that they have to advance into Alsace-Lorraine on a short frontage, in difficult terrain, straight into the Maginot Line, exactly where the French are waiting for them.
Hmm. Well, what if Germany does invade all those other countries and take stuff, but only so far as nessecary to restore its borders?

For example, it occupies the low countries to invade France and knock them out, but pulls out after the war ends (except for Alcase Lorraine which is annexed).
 
...
For example, it occupies the low countries to invade France and knock them out, but pulls out after the war ends (except for Alcase Lorraine which is annexed).

That was the strategy or assumption of the nazi leaders. They thought the war would end after Poland was defeated/destroyed. The Allies would see their objective, the preservation of Poland no longer relevant and offer to negotiate a peace. That did not happen, so the assumption was revived were the Allies in the west defeated in 1940. Yet after the Norwegians, Danes, Dutch, Belgians, French, and British had their armies and air forces on the continent destroyed, the war still continued.
 
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The reason why you never found an explanation is probably that you never looked for it hard enough, and in any case, your post seems to show that you don't thoroughly understand the issue.
Try reading this:

https://cupola.gettysburg.edu/cgi/v...le.com/&httpsredir=1&article=1188&context=ghj

Schacht, in January 1939, wrote a letter to Hitler, that brought about his dismissal (and replacement with the more pliable Funk). Among other things, Schacht had written (these are only excerpts):

"Especially in the field of daily requirements for the home and clothing, the lack of supply and above all the decline of quality is most evident."

"We are, however, faced with the fact that approximately three billion Reichsmark of such drafts cannot now be paid, though they will be due in 1939."

"Exclusive of the Reichsbank there are approximately six billion Reichsmark 'Mefo' drafts which can be discounted against cash payment at any time at the Reichsbank, which fact represents a continuous danger to the currency."

"We are convinced that the effects on the currency caused by the policy of the last ten months can be mended, and that the danger of inflation again can be eliminated by strict maintenance of a balanced budget."

"We therefore ask for the following measures:
(1) The Reich as well as all the other public offices must not incur expenditure or assume guarantees and obligations that cannot be covered by taxes, or by those funds which can be raised through loans without disturbing the long-term investment market.
(2) In order to carry out these measures effectively, full financial control over all public expenditures must be restored to the Reich Minister of Finance.
(3) The price and wage control must be rendered effective. The existing mismanagement must be eliminated."
(4) The use of the money and investment market must be at the sole discretion of the Reichsbank."

The essay quoted above states:
"While the supply shortage of early 1939 caused the working class to lose confidence in the Nazis’ economic prowess, MeFo bills did the same for businesses and banks. The MeFo bills that jumpstarted Germany’s miraculous recovery also threatened it the most. In March 1938, Schacht ended MeFo financing because he felt the system had gotten out of control.70 Finally Schacht had found a predicament from which he could not slither out. Many MeFo bills were also reaching maturity and the Reichsbank had to pay back the bills’ worth to their holders. But Hitler wanted to continue financing rearmament to the fullest. Schacht tried to sell long-term bonds to MeFo bills creditors instead of giving them hard cash, but they would not buy.71 His only recourse was to print money and run a deficit. But the rearmament campaign still demanded money as well. To plug this hole, in October 1938, Schacht tried to sell four packages of long-term bonds to the public, each containing 1.5 billion RM. Surprisingly, private savers and insurances funds bought the first three packages but the fourth one suffered a massive failure in late November after Schacht introduced it.72 The financiers of the Nazi economy had lost confidence a couple of months before the workers did at the start of 1939." (bold is mine)

So by early 1939, the so-called perfect storm was approaching. No foreign country wanted to deal in Reichsmarks. Germany tried to do international trade by barter, but they actually had little to export (no consumer goods because they were not producing those; little in the way of armaments because their armed forces wanted those). They managed to strong-arm Romania into a disadvantageous such agreement, but Poland (guess what) said no.
At home, sure the Nazis could unilaterally postpone the payment of the state bonds that came due in 1940 - which they did in OTL, and refuse to pay the MeFo bills - but it is one thing to do that as a wartime measure, and another thing to do that in peacetime. They could use the Gestapo in peacetime too, but they would instantly lose the support of their influential backers, the industrialists and wealthier uppoer classes. They were already losing the support of the workers, who couldn't procure decent food or clothing for their families.
The next step would be the bankruptcy of minor banks and insurance funds, which had invested too much in state bonds and MeFo bills. That would start the panic. Just like the RM was no longer accepted abroad, it would catastrophically lose value at home. Whoever could, say small businesses and shops, would raise prices. Inflation would be rampant.
The government would then enforce stricter price control measures - which, as you should know if you really want to discuss these things, causes the wares to disappear from the shelves and the black market to boom. Even higher prices, higher inflation.
Smaller factories would then go bankrupt, lay the workers off, and stop supplying ancillary parts to larger factories, including those producing armaments.

Great answer :)
 
That was the strategy or assumption of the nazi leaders. They thought the war would end after Poland was defeated/destroyed. The Allies would see their objective, the preservation of Poland no longer relevant and offer to negotiate a peace. That did not happen, so the assumption was revived were the Allies in the west defeated in 1940. Yet after the Norwegians, Danes, Dutch, Belgians, French, and British had their armies and air forces on the continent, the war still continued.
True.

I don't know if I made this clear, but I would want to see if a resurgent Germany can win an alt ww2 if it doesn't dedicate so much resources to the pointless genocide. Basically this Germany seeks to establish a hegomeny on all of Europe, but without the holocaust and Lebensraum stuff.
 
Theres some arguments German economic & other advantages would have put it out front as the Depression and effects of the Versailles Treaty faded in the 1940s & 50s.
 
Hmm. Well, what if Germany does invade all those other countries and take stuff, but only so far as nessecary to restore its borders?

For example, it occupies the low countries to invade France and knock them out, but pulls out after the war ends (except for Alcase Lorraine which is annexed).

So where has the "no overextension" premise ended?
Does it just mean "no Barbarossa"? In that case, there's plenty of old threads that explored that choice.
 
That was the strategy or assumption of the nazi leaders. They thought the war would end after Poland was defeated/destroyed. The Allies would see their objective, the preservation of Poland no longer relevant and offer to negotiate a peace. That did not happen, so the assumption was revived were the Allies in the west defeated in 1940. Yet after the Norwegians, Danes, Dutch, Belgians, French, and British had their armies and air forces on the continent, the war still continued.

But let's assume a best case scenario. Germany does retake Pomerania and Danzig, and of course the Sudeten, and Alsace-Lorraine, after winning a short and limited war (or a series of such wars). What's the end situation?

It's 1872 again, but on all sides. The Germans have won, but they are surrounded by countries that hate their guts. Germany is embargoed and boycotted by all neighboring countries, as well as not liked by the USSR and the USA. The neighbors will form a stronger, tighter anti-German alliance that will include France, Italy, Czechoslovakia, Poland and Britain, at least. These powers will pressure minor European countries to hamper their trade with Germany, while the USA will do the same with South American countries.

Germany is now very hard pressed to just import enough of the most basic import, i.e. food, and it's only a matter of time before some new point of tension (say, the obvious mistreatment by a Nazi government of the Polish minority in Pomerania or the Czech one in the Sudeten or the French one in Alsace) will provide the anti-German alliance with a casus belli for the third rematch.

Exactly the fact that the war has been short and limited will mean Europe has not been vaccinated against the temptation, as it had been in 1918 and as it would have been in OTL 1945. The impression will be that the new way of waging war can be quick and relatively cheap, certainly cheaper than 1914-1918. So they'll be at it again within 10 years at most, a dogpile against Nazi Germany.
 
It's 1872 again, but on all sides. The Germans have won, but they are surrounded by countries that hate their guts. Germany is embargoed and boycotted by all neighboring countries, as well as not liked by the USSR and the USA. The neighbors will form a stronger, tighter anti-German alliance that will include France, Italy, Czechoslovakia, Poland and Britain, at least. These powers will pressure minor European countries to hamper their trade with Germany, while the USA will do the same with South American countries.
Can't Germany use its new found hegomeny to still force everyone to trade with it, seeing as its coming from a position of power?

Plus, in the event of a sort of ww3, Germanny will be playing on the defensive this time, so it can fortify its new borders and bleeed the coalition dry.
 
Can't Germany use its new found hegomeny to still force everyone to trade with it, seeing as its coming from a position of power?

Plus, in the event of a sort of ww3, Germanny will be playing on the defensive this time, so it can fortify its new borders and bleeed the coalition dry.
It didn't work out in 1872. And as for playing the defensive and fortifying the new borders, let's ask the French how it worked out for them. When you become a pariah and haven't gone Morgenthau on the people you pissed, it doesn't end well.

The Nazi system, even without genocidal shit, which was its core anyway so pretty hard to remove, was awful when it came to industry and research. What you'd also see would be Frédéric Joliot-Curie perfecting with the British his patent #445686. Something the German scientists were historically very bad at compared to their competition, as testify their notes and 'private' conversations in 1945.
 
It didn't work out in 1872. And as for playing the defensive and fortifying the new borders, let's ask the French how it worked out for them. When you become a pariah and haven't gone Morgenthau on the people you pissed, it doesn't end well.

The Nazi system, even without genocidal shit, which was its core anyway so pretty hard to remove, was awful when it came to industry and research. What you'd also see would be Frédéric Joliot-Curie perfecting with the British his patent #445686. Something the German scientists were historically very bad at compared to their competition, as testify their notes and 'private' conversations in 1945.

The Maginot line worked perfectly

It ensured that the fighting took place in Belgium and North East France which it did

The issue was with the forces doing said fighting not the heavy fortifications
 
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