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Alright so basically here it is:

Arthur, Prince of Wales survives the disease that killed him in 1502 IOTL but as a result his health is greatly weakened. Henry VII dies in 1509 as IOTL and Arthur is crowned as King Arthur I at age 23. However just one year into his reign Arthur dies in 1510. He and Catherine never have any surviving children so the throne passes to Arthur's brother the 19-year-old Henry, the Duke of York who becomes Henry VIII one year later than IOTL.

However, the Tudor dynasty faces a problem. The new king Henry has recently been ordained a Catholic priest (he was vying to become a cardinal and perhaps even Pope before he became king which was what his father wanted for him before Arthur died IOTL). Therefore, church law forbids him to get married. So there are two options here:

1. The first is by far the easiest but given Henry's obsession with having a male heir (which I'm sure will not be different TTL) has a near -zero plausibility level. This is basically for Henry to just sit back and let the English succession law work out. As a result, his older sister Margaret, Queen of Scots would become heir-apparent and her descendants would inherit the English throne causing an earlier personal union with Scotland.

2. However what's far more likely is for Henry to seek a Papal Dispensation allowing him to marry despite already being ordained a priest. As this route is almost certain to happen, their are two possible outcomes:

A. If the pope says yes, who will Henry marry? Perhaps Eleanor of Austria, the older sister of future Charles V? A French princess (though this is unlikely given he is Henry VIII). Maybe even an English noblewoman?

B. If he says no what will happen? Will Henry just accept this decision or can we see him breaking away from Rome before the Reformation even happens! Maybe this can cause butterflies on Luther's yet-to-happen Reformation and make it more successful.

What do you think will happen in this scenario? Also two more questions?

What will happen to the newly widowed Catherine of Aragon who is still only 25? Will she remarry? Return to Spain? Also what about Scotland? Will Flooden still happen? And will Henry still invade France like he did in the first few years of his reign IOTL?
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