I've been reading Shattered Sword, and I think I've put together a fairly simple TL which shows a possible Japanese victory at Midway. It's very barebones, but I thought it would make sense to put it on here simply as a useful future resource.
0430: attack launched on Midway
0618: Chikuma #1 spots TF 17 to the southeast of its current position, transmits sighting report (two carriers).
0623: Spotting and arming begins of reserve strike of Kido Butai. CAP fighters launched as supplement.
0635: Chikuma #1 also spots TF 16.
0703: Reserve strike launched. Light on fighters due to need for CAP.
0712: Early day attacks begin. No more successful than OTL.
0740 onwards: Enterprise's air group departs.
0755: Hornet's air group departs
0805: Tomanaga's group arrives back, to be landed on as soon as the ongoing attacks conclude.
0835: Japanese attack arrives at TF 16 and TF 17. Enterprise, Yorktown hit by torpedoes and dive bombers – both sunk, no Yorktown planes get in the air (spotting operations interrupted by incoming attacks). Japanese strike aircraft take substantial casualties owing to sparseness of fighter cover.
0917: Tomanaga's group struck below. It is clear that another American carrier remains in the offing; CAP reinforced.
1005: McClusky's dive bombers attack from the south. With only one target from one axis, the CAP swarms all over it and cuts it down. No arming or fuelling operations are taking place, any bomb hits are non-critical and do not result in fire.
1020: Japanese strike on Enterprise, Yorktown is landed on and struck below.
1115: Japanese third strike launched against Hornet.
1235: Hornet sunk under a devastating barrage of attack aircraft.With her air group largely lost at sea, Hornet is defended by orphans from the other two carriers. They are unable to prevent her taking both bomb and torpedo hits, and she sinks.
Outcome: Some damage to Japanese carriers from McClusky attack, not as bad as OTL due to heavy fighter attacks and lack of Yorktown flight assistance. Enterprise, Yorktown, Hornet lost. Midway island not captured (invasion goes badly) but operational American carrier force reduced to Saratoga and Wasp until at least May 1943 (and Essex entering commission); Kido Butai reconstituted as six carriers by mid-July 1942.
It doesn't do anything about the massive Essex class coming down the pipe, but it certainly changes the tenor of the middle of the war.