German diplomacy was not exactly adept - witness the appointment of Herr Brickendropp as Ambassador to London. I could easily see them telling themselves if they don't build the fleet too big (and realistically, they can't really build even up to their OTL tonnage with this strategy) the British will accept it.Why should they want to make Britain furious? That was the LAST the Germans wanted to do.
Not the OTL one, certainly. Whether there would be some sort of agreement I'm more ambivalent - there was certainly a mood at the time that the Germans were being treated too harshly. If they keep the ships small (8" rather than 11") I think some sort of agreement isn't ASB.There won't be an AGNA. The whole point of it was to wed the KM to a mixed fleet with a battleship centrepiece, but keep it too small to threaten the similar (but larger) RN.
If the yards are focused on 11" commerce raiders and long-range submarines, then London will conclude (rightly) that this is a strategy aimed squarely at strangling Britain, and look at all the things you can do about it.
Maybe, it depends how ambitious the Germans get with their fleet. Remember, this isn't a bigger fleet (probably smaller, actually), it's a change of emphasis. And realistically there is only one country that either a balanced fleet or a freak fleet could end up fighting - the UK. Provided the UK felt secure in their superiority, they were surprisingly relaxed about it.Expect something like financial support for French intervention in the Rhineland, backing for Spanish Republicanism, Anglo-French acceptance of the Italian intervention in Abyssinia leading to a successful Stresa Front keeping Italy opposed to any Rhineland and later Anschluss - pick some or all of those.
Which will probably thwart German ambitions well before a Sudeten crisis - and if there is one, the Czechs will probably end up fighting.
Yes. The other question is what armament they'd go for on the battleship part of the treaty - 15" to allow them to follow the Vanguard route and re-use old turrets/guns suddenly becomes a lot more attractive. I think the raider threat would make fast battleships a lot more attractive than even OTL, although I'd agree that the money available for them would be rather less.Exactly - so this change in fleet format would easily change what the British planned for the 1936 LNT - less emphasis on new Battleships and the need to keep the older ones in service allowing for more Cruisers to be built
The other issue is aircraft carriers - they're arguably a better response to cruisers than other cruisers, and that would probably mean the RN gives them more emphasis.
That also comes into the LNT - it may well be that the WNT cruiser rules are kept.If the German navy went the Cruiser / Submarine route then is that not easier for Britain to 'over match'
For a start the Towns (probably from the 3rd batch) become true heavy Cruisers with the planned triple 8" Turrets and the subsequant design (Crown Colony class) are more of these Batch 3 heavy Towns.
In OTL the R-class were supposed to be scrapped when the Lions came into service, so with a reduced German battleship threat I'd say it makes perfect sense for the R-class to be scrapped earlier. The other issue is manpower - with a much bigger cruiser and possibly aircraft carrier fleet to deal with, the fleet will have to find the men from somewhere. If they don't need the battleships so badly, the R-class are a strong candidate.With no Twins and no B and T - the need to keep the Revenge class in service disappears and or more of the Queens and Battle Cruisers can be taken out of service in the late 30s for Deep Refits.
With the 5 Revenges taken out of service Britain can start building the KGVs sooner (as a 1 for 1 replacement for the 5 Revenges) before 1937.
I could see a 15" KGV entering service as early as 1936 in those circumstances, given how rapidly the British could build battleships.
It would certainly change the emphasis of the fleet - ASW was to a large extent neglected between the wars, if it's most of the threat they're facing then it has to get more attention and funding.Obviously the Increased numbers of submarines is going to create all sorts of warning flags as this can only mean one thing as far as Britain is concerned.
Political pressure aside I can see such a Submarine building programme being mirrored by a massive escort programme and increased numbers of Destroyers being built for the British.
USW (Unrestricted Submarine Warfare) is a major issue no matter if Germany has 40 Submarines or 200 Submarines - but this aside such a fleet IMO is better for the UK in one way as it allows them to focus on building a larger escort / Destroyer fleet and concentrate on ASW and Escort/Convoy techniques earlier.