With historic levels of design effort and building intensity that is correct. Your core assumption is that the 15" gun was finished as fast as it could, you have not presented any evidence that this is true. To be fair I am assuming it can be speed up and haven't presented any solid evidence it could on my end. I know the Germans split their design effort between new 11", paper studies of a 350mm gun, 8" gun, 15" gun and 16" gun by WW2. Here they only need to work on 11" and 15" guns. Also till Bismarck is laid down there there is no rush on the 15" gun either. Again I am seeing a case that the 15" gun COULD be speed up BUT its pure guess work on my end.
If you see the historic Service date as holy write then there isn't anything for either us to say on the subject. I believe there is wiggle room, if you don't then you don't.
No such clause is in the treaty. The Inter Allied Commission of Control put the 11" gun limit in place and they left in 1927 or 28. Weimar by the 30's had started the path to breaking the treaty. Weimar authorized the Pocket BB's and knew what they were and represented. The Weimar government authorized CA construction and DD's that became the Type 1934 and a Carrier. All were in overt breach of the treaty unlike building 15" guns and even that was a limit of no more than one barrel per year by the IACOC and again they were gone by the 30's.
Michael
Some Treaty Restrictions:
ARTICLE 168.
The manufacture of arms, munitions, or any war material, shall only be carried out in factories or works the location of which shall be communicated to and approved by the Governments of the Principal Allied and Associated Powers, and the number of which they retain the right to restrict. Within three months from the coming into force of the present Treaty, all other establishments for the manufacture, preparation, storage or design of arms, munitions, or any war material whatever shall be closed down. The same applies to all arsenals except those used as depots for the authorised stocks of munitions. Within the same period the personnel of these arsenals will be dismissed.
Article 192
The warships in commission of the German fleet must have on board or in reserve only the allowance of arms, munitions and war material fixed by the Principal Allied and Associated Powers. Within a month from the fixing of the quantities as above, arms, munitions and war material of all kinds, including mines and torpedoes, now in the hands of the German Government and in excess of the said quantities, shall be surrendered to the Governments of the said Powers at places to be indicated by them. Such arms, munitions and war material will be destroyed or rendered useless.
All other stocks, depots or reserves of arms, munitions or naval war material of all kinds are forbidden.
The manufacture of these articles in German territory for, and their export to, foreign countries shall be forbidden.
ARTICLE 196.
All fortified works and fortifications, other than those mentioned in Section XIII (Heligoland) of Part III (Political Clauses for Europe) and in Article 195, now established within fifty kilometres of the German coast or on German islands off that coast shall be considered as of a defensive nature and may remain in their existing condition.
No new fortifications shall be constructed within these limits. The armament of these defences shall not exceed, as regards the number and calibre of guns, those in position at the date of the coming into force of the present Treaty. The German Government shall communicate forthwith particulars thereof to all the European Governments. On the expiration of a period of two months from the coming into force of the present Treaty the stocks of ammunition for these guns shall be reduced to and maintained at a maximum figure of fifteen hundred rounds per piece for calibres of 4.1-inch and under, and five hundred rounds per piece for higher calibres.