Alt Great War sides?

Not the best topic, but it'll do. Hello everyone.

I need help in figuring out how the Great War may go in this alternate scenario. This scenario is actually the backdrop for a future story of mine.

Basically, thigns go different for the US a bit to where the Civil War is the USA and Mexico vs CSA and Texas. Yes, Texas. Now, the Civil War lasts shorter and due to prior events (the Mexican-American War does not happen), Mexico gets Texas back and strengthens relations with US while selling some land to them.

What does this have to do with anything?

Well, the French Empire's attempts to meddle with Mexico go worse here to where the emperor pretty much leaves and the republic is re-established. But they realize they need a strong ally. Who?

North German Confederacy. Yes, this butterflies away the Franco-Prussian War.

The whole point is I'm trying to decide how a Great War would go with this new Franco-German alliance? Who would team with whom and so on? This is admittingly secondary information to the story, but it may come into play later.
 
Well, the French Empire's attempts to meddle with Mexico go worse here to where the emperor pretty much leaves and the republic is re-established. But they realize they need a strong ally. Who?

North German Confederacy.

Why? Germany, any Germany, is naturally going to be France's rival as they argue over border territories. It still makes far more sense for France to ally with Britain against a rising Germany, as Britain has zero territorial ambition on the continent. Your POD seems to be sometime between 1836 and 1848, a period in history in which France and Britain were already moving much closer together. By 1853 they're allies against the Russians so you have a very limited period of time to turn them against each other and not much motive to do so. Britain and France are bound by a mutual distrust of a rising Germany, who Franco-Prussian war or not still threatens France, and a desire to keep Russia penned in the Black and Baltic seas. Their only real possible point of contention between them is colonial borders but as they've effectively split Africa and Asia between them there's a lot of room for compromise.

I don't see what France gains by aligning themselves with Germany besides supporting a powerful nation on their border and adding another competitor in the colonizing game. France, long term, is better served by strangling Germany in the cradle.

The only way France allies with Germany is if France somehow needs their help and the only other nations who can threaten France are Britain (who as we mentioned before has no interest in doing so since there's plenty of money to be made elsewhere) or Russia. I could see a Franco-German alliance only under the circumstances of preventing a Russian push to controlling (somehow) the Danish straits. But again the British really don't want the Russians to do that so they'd be on board too. Overall it would mean you'd need a stronger Russia who also abandoned their Balkans desires. Under those circumstances I could see Russia possibly bringing the Austrians and Ottomans in on their side if that happened. It's possible but you'll need a major shift in European politics and national goals to make it happen.
 
Why? Germany, any Germany, is naturally going to be France's rival as they argue over border territories. It still makes far more sense for France to ally with Britain against a rising Germany, as Britain has zero territorial ambition on the continent. Your POD seems to be sometime between 1836 and 1848, a period in history in which France and Britain were already moving much closer together. By 1853 they're allies against the Russians so you have a very limited period of time to turn them against each other and not much motive to do so. Britain and France are bound by a mutual distrust of a rising Germany, who Franco-Prussian war or not still threatens France, and a desire to keep Russia penned in the Black and Baltic seas. Their only real possible point of contention between them is colonial borders but as they've effectively split Africa and Asia between them there's a lot of room for compromise.

I don't see what France gains by aligning themselves with Germany besides supporting a powerful nation on their border and adding another competitor in the colonizing game. France, long term, is better served by strangling Germany in the cradle.

The only way France allies with Germany is if France somehow needs their help and the only other nations who can threaten France are Britain (who as we mentioned before has no interest in doing so since there's plenty of money to be made elsewhere) or Russia. I could see a Franco-German alliance only under the circumstances of preventing a Russian push to controlling (somehow) the Danish straits. But again the British really don't want the Russians to do that so they'd be on board too. Overall it would mean you'd need a stronger Russia who also abandoned their Balkans desires. Under those circumstances I could see Russia possibly bringing the Austrians and Ottomans in on their side if that happened. It's possible but you'll need a major shift in European politics and national goals to make it happen.

Because France is a weakened republic so why not try and make an ally out of their rival? They just suffered a bad loss in a war across the seas. That's the direction I was going for. The French decide something of a desperation tactic since the Emperor was more or less kicked out and a new republic is in, hence the unorthodox tactic.

As for Germany, they don't have any allies I think as this point so I figure having them acknolwedge would be worth as least that. They can still reuntie with southern Germany with an inevitable other war with Austria.

Then let me rephrease this. France becoems the French Third Republic in say 1863 instead of 1870 and they're not doing so good since attempted intervention in Mexico probably led to some harsh penalities. So what do you think would be the sides for the Great War?

Though hypothetically, what would be the outcome of a Franco-German alliance for the Concert of Europe? I don't need to be told the implausability of it, otherwise that defeats the whole point of alternate history, but it is a fascinating thing to think about.
 
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I don't think that it's likely that events in Mexico or even the US during this period would create such massive ramifications for the BoP in Europe, but let's assume that your events come about.

It is possible for a Franco-German axis to come about. Christopher Clark (The Sleepwalkers) posits that such an axis could have come about in the late 1890s, when French foreign minister Hanotaux thought about striking a bargain with Germany (in any case the two were economically connected) in order for colonial advantage against the UK. A more receptive Germany might have been enough to deflect OTL France's alignment with Russia.

By nature such a Franco-North German axis (given the colonial and naval competition between France-UK) would be directed against the UK, which would seek its own balance in South Germany, Austria-Hungary and Italy for sure (with all the troubles that plagued the OTL Triple Entente). Given Russia's strategic interests this would likely place it in the Franco-N German camp, which in turn would see Japan in the UK's camp.
 
I don't think that it's likely that events in Mexico or even the US during this period would create such massive ramifications for the BoP in Europe, but let's assume that your events come about.

It is possible for a Franco-German axis to come about. Christopher Clark (The Sleepwalkers) posits that such an axis could have come about in the late 1890s, when French foreign minister Hanotaux thought about striking a bargain with Germany (in any case the two were economically connected) in order for colonial advantage against the UK. A more receptive Germany might have been enough to deflect OTL France's alignment with Russia.

By nature such a Franco-North German axis (given the colonial and naval competition between France-UK) would be directed against the UK, which would seek its own balance in South Germany, Austria-Hungary and Italy for sure (with all the troubles that plagued the OTL Triple Entente). Given Russia's strategic interests this would likely place it in the Franco-N German camp, which in turn would see Japan in the UK's camp.

Admittingly, I did just post a hastily written and shortened version of what I had. I figure North German Confederation would go for it since they don't have any allies and so perhaps having France take them seriosuly enough would help soldify them. It would happen sometime in the 1870s and I figure NGF would find a way to get southern Germany soon after.

I didn't figure Italy would be on the same side as Austria-Hungary and I figured Germany would be more vested in the Ottomans because of the Orient Express. Perhaps Russia, UK and Italy would be on one side against France, Germany and the Ottomans (along with Spain given German's Spainish prince thing) and Austira-Hungary might be deadlocked.
 
I didn't figure Italy would be on the same side as Austria-Hungary and I figured Germany would be more vested in the Ottomans because of the Orient Express. Perhaps Russia, UK and Italy would be on one side against France, Germany and the Ottomans (along with Spain given German's Spainish prince thing) and Austira-Hungary might be deadlocked.

Italy and A-H together in a long term alliance it's extremely difficult as OTL demonstrated; OTL happened due to various factor (French resentment for not being helped against Germany, the Roman Question, Tunisia and Cripi aka the most rabid pro-German and anti-French prime minister ever nominated).
An Italian-British alliance will be important to keep the control of hte Mediterrean and there were a lot of occasion in this period for that (intervention in Egypt or during the Russo-Ottoman war of 78 come in mind) and it's a natural counterbalance against the French.
Regarding A-H, well she can go with the Franco-German or with the British but much depend on both had contrastant interest on the Balkans and over the Ottomans
 
Italy and A-H together in a long term alliance it's extremely difficult as OTL demonstrated; OTL happened due to various factor (French resentment for not being helped against Germany, the Roman Question, Tunisia and Cripi aka the most rabid pro-German and anti-French prime minister ever nominated).
An Italian-British alliance will be important to keep the control of hte Mediterrean and there were a lot of occasion in this period for that (intervention in Egypt or during the Russo-Ottoman war of 78 come in mind) and it's a natural counterbalance against the French.
Regarding A-H, well she can go with the Franco-German or with the British but much depend on both had contrastant interest on the Balkans and over the Ottomans

So it could be an Italian-British-Russian vs Franco-German-Ottoman war. Austria-Hungary would probably be poltiiclaly isolated or it could have split since the North German Federation would come up with a casus belli to fight Austria-Hungary and get the southern Germanic states to join up and create the German Empire. After that, Austrua-Hungary may split into its various pieces.
 
So it could be an Italian-British-Russian vs Franco-German-Ottoman war. Austria-Hungary would probably be poltiiclaly isolated or it could have split since the North German Federation would come up with a casus belli to fight Austria-Hungary and get the southern Germanic states to join up and create the German Empire. After that, Austrua-Hungary may split into its various pieces.

Yes, it can be doable even if much depend on the PoD; British-Russian reapprochment can be started by the Franco-German alliance and the fear that she will create the european egemon that London fear so much...but this also bring somekind of agreement regarding Asia and the Great Game.
Austria-Hungary division is complicated and can cause a world war as too many are interested in her part.
 
Yes, it can be doable even if much depend on the PoD; British-Russian reapprochment can be started by the Franco-German alliance and the fear that she will create the european egemon that London fear so much...but this also bring somekind of agreement regarding Asia and the Great Game.
Austria-Hungary division is complicated and can cause a world war as too many are interested in her part.

Well, the point would be in examining how a Great War scenario would play out here, but I would like thank everyone for their help so far. Though the question is with the sides mroe-or-less decided, who would win and what would be some rammifications (assume the USA doesn;t get involved)
 
How about Britain and Germany on the same side? It's been always claimed they go for the balance of power, but I'd say this is untrue and they went for who was most sucking up to them. Here is my logic. Germany had more industrial output than anyone else on the continent, but the France-Russia combination is more than the Germany-Austira-Italy one (yes Russia is mostly undeveloped, but they had some nana cent industries). So suppose the French were a bit more bellicose to the British one Nappy III is gone...
 
How about Britain and Germany on the same side? It's been always claimed they go for the balance of power, but I'd say this is untrue and they went for who was most sucking up to them. Here is my logic. Germany had more industrial output than anyone else on the continent, but the France-Russia combination is more than the Germany-Austira-Italy one (yes Russia is mostly undeveloped, but they had some nana cent industries). So suppose the French were a bit more bellicose to the British one Nappy III is gone...

I don't know if the British, French and Germans would be on the same side. The point being here is that the French, on shaky ground from harsh penalities after the debacle with Mexico, make peace with the NGF and avoid the Franco-Prussian War.
 
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