ALT-EU: Northerners only

In one of the PC Eurozone threads, I mentioned the idea of a Northern-only EU, that is to say UK, France, Germany, Benelux and some Eastern European countries.

So, what's the POD required to make this happen? Bonus for after 1975, Double bonus for after 1992, Triple bonus for sometime in the 2000s. No coups/assassinations/wars, otherwise no restrictions.
 
You'd need a PoD in the 40's, since the ECSC, the predecessor of all Euopean entities included Italy as a founding member, and Europeanism has NEVER been based on North-South, rather East-West, which itself dissapeared with the collapse of the Soviet System.
 
In one of the PC Eurozone threads, I mentioned the idea of a Northern-only EU, that is to say UK, France, Germany, Benelux and some Eastern European countries.

So, what's the POD required to make this happen? Bonus for after 1975, Double bonus for after 1992, Triple bonus for sometime in the 2000s. No coups/assassinations/wars, otherwise no restrictions.

To keep Greece out, have it collapse to some sort of Communist dictatorship in the 70s. Italy... maybe have a Communist government in charge that refuses to join the EEC, as it tries to have an autarchic economy. Spain and Portugal, if you can keep them as right-wing dictatorships, then I doubt they'll join the EEC. Then, have a series of economic crises in southern Europe that make the alt-EEC much warier of admitting them. Eventually, the EU will include the former EEC members, with the southern European states included in some capacity, similarly to how the Balkan states are treated now.
 
Surviving fascist Italy seems like a good starting point. Maybe Italy stays neutral in WWII and ends up as the leader of a minor power bloc possibly including Francoist Spain, Salazar's Portugal, and maybe Greece somehow. Suppose Germany is still defeated, and the northern democracies later form an economic cooperation organization that excludes the fascist bloc.
 
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