Allies victorious in 1914

Say that Germany never launches their counter attack in A-L(Like the Schlieffen plan called for), Belgium lets French forces enter their country when Germany sends their ultimatum to Belgium and France sends it's own left wing in(Soon backed by the BEF) containing Germany in Belgium, Russia wins at Tannenburg pushing the Germans back farther and Italy joins the allies before October(Not sure how plausible this is). Austria still fails to knock Serbia out and Russia still defeats Austria in Galicia.

Before the end of the year the Germans and Austria see that Austria is too over extended to keep fighting and that Germany has failed on both fronts. The CPs ask for an armistice and get a "fair" peace.

Could this have happened? General thoughts?
 
Last edited:
I dont think that
1. Belgium would let french forces to its territory.
2.Italia would become an Ally of Antanta in 1914-it was in Central power!
 
A quicker, more intense war would have left the European powers with their economies intact. Also, Germany would probably not have been humiliated as in 1918/19, and as a result the Nazi movement would lack any appeal and never take off. Also, the Ottoman Empire would probably manage to hold on to Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon if it stays out of this skirmish. So Britain and France do not occupy the Middle East, meaning no state of Israel. Also, the USA controls world oil supply well until the 20th century because the Ottomans lack the technology or initiative to exploit or even discover the vast oil wealth in their territories. Unless of course they loosen their grip in these regions and allow foreign companies to pump oil there.
 
Say that Germany never launches their counter attack in A-L(Like the Schlieffen plan called for), Belgium lets French forces enter their country when Germany sends their ultimatum to Belgium and France sends it's own left wing in(Soon backed by the BEF) containing Germany in Belgium, Russia wins at Tannenburg pushing the Germans back farther and Italy joins the allies before October(Not sure how plausible this is). Austria still fails to knock Serbia out and Russia still defeats Austria in Galicia.

Before the end of the year the Germans and Austria see that Austria is too over extended to keep fighting and that Germany has failed on both fronts. The CPs ask for an armistice and get a "fair" peace.

Could this have happened? General thoughts?

There might be some inherent flaws in this.
First - war by timetable:
Moltke insisted on the assault on the western front as scheduled because the timetables of troop trains could not be altered and thus mobilized troops not shifted to counter Russia! The commander of the planning office some weeks later demonstrated otherwise having put his office to draw up a contingency timetable.
The French would probably face the same type of difficulties at least needning a few weeks or possibly more to come up with a new timetable to march into Belgium instead of using Plan 17.

Then you just have BEF landing in Belgium and a few French reserve corps joining them, if the French command allows this.

Russian win at Tannenberg??? How??? Other commanders, better communications etc.
German artillery could deliver a much bigger punch than the Russians and they were fighting to stop the Cossac's entering Holy Prussian Soil!

I don't see Italy joining either party at this time. If the triple alliance are in worse conditions than OTL certainly not. Allies on the win - probably won't invite the Italians (I might be wrong on this one) Where's the need for more to take part in the spoils?

If the triple alliance ask for a cease fire and peace during 1914 - why not? Nobody's worn way down at this time, well down to ask an armestige but not in hunger and total defeat, so I guess it be granted by the Entente to be worked out at a conference.

So I don't see a Entente victory in 1914, but if - war just might be ended.
 
Russian win at Tannenberg??? How??? Other commanders, better communications etc
In RH Samsonov and rennenkamf(commanders of two russian armies, attacking East Prussia) were enemies-so rennenkampf didnot help Samsonov, when Samsonov's army was attacked by german-so it was defeated.
 
In this scenario there would be a considerable worry in London about a Russian dominated Europe postwar. This would lead to fighting at the peace conference over just how much the Russians would be able to annex. IIRC they want all German and AH territories with Polish majorities. First Lord Churchill might well utter something about an Iron Curtain descending on Europe. France would be much less worried about the Tsarist menace.

Britiain meanwhile has Irish Home Rule to implement. The Easter Rising has been avoided BUT there is some possible problems with the UVF.

Ottomans never made it into the war so would be untouched---for the time being.

Mussolini probably will not rise to prominence even though in a lot of AH he is regarded as inevitable.

America never really got fully interested in the war. If the resultant peace is too harsh to the CP there could be some resentment to the Entente esp. Russia.

In postwar Germany the monarchy would wobble for a while. I could see the Kaiser being pressured to abdicate and have his son take over. The Socialist majority in the Reichstag will demand reduced powers for the Kaiser as well as the end of the Prussian 3 tier voting system.
 
One key flaw right off the bat: if Belgium allows French troops to enter, that's a violation of several diplomatic accords. That in turn would abrogate the treaty of support signed by Great Britain, since Belgium allowed foreign troops to enter voluntarily. Now there's no British support of the French, which, as their supply lines theoretically extend, won't make it one bit easier.

Then: Russia winning at Tannenberg, when Rennenkampf and Samsonov despise each other--and the Russians are sending their signals by wireless in clear, to boot? That, friends, verges on ASB.

Short version: the whole scenario doesn't seem too plausible.
 
Russian win at Tannenberg??? How??? Other commanders, better communications etc.
German artillery could deliver a much bigger punch than the Russians and they were fighting to stop the Cossac's entering Holy Prussian Soil!


Why not? It's not impossible for the Russians to get lucky.

This post from another thread is a nice example:

As to the tactical competency of the Russians - one has the conflicting examples of Stallupönen and Gumbinnen to inspect.
 

Markus

Banned
IMO it won´t work.
In the east the Germans have plenty of room to fall back, and in the west we see a head-on confrontation of the bulk of French and German forces.

In the west we got stalemate like in OTL, just at a different place and in the east the counter-offensive will drive the Russians back.
 
Why not? It's not impossible for the Russians to get lucky.

This post from another thread is a nice example:

Then: Russia winning at Tannenberg, when Rennenkampf and Samsonov despise each other--and the Russians are sending their signals by wireless in clear, to boot? That, friends, verges on ASB.

Short version: the whole scenario doesn't seem too plausible.

Of course its not impossible for someone to get lucky, but Russians according to OTL dispositions in East Prussia 1914?
They need more than a helping hand to get lucky!
 

MrP

Banned
Of course its not impossible for someone to get lucky, but Russians according to OTL dispositions in East Prussia 1914?
They need more than a helping hand to get lucky!

I agree it requires significant changes, but none is actually impossible or even greatly improbable. Kick the Russian Army more up the arse than happened IOTL as a result of the R-J War. Remove one of Rennenkampf and Samsonov, so that personality problems are not such an issue. Have Second Army (whether under Samsonov or someone else) form up closer to the border than 80 miles away or start off at the same time as First Army instead of several days later. Have Second Army advance on a narrower front (135 miles IOTL) so that her units can be mutually-supporting, and so that the communication problems that helped the Germans surround the centre are greatly lessened.
 
I agree it requires significant changes, but none is actually impossible or even greatly improbable. Kick the Russian Army more up the arse than happened IOTL as a result of the R-J War. Remove one of Rennenkampf and Samsonov, so that personality problems are not such an issue. Have Second Army (whether under Samsonov or someone else) form up closer to the border than 80 miles away or start off at the same time as First Army instead of several days later. Have Second Army advance on a narrower front (135 miles IOTL) so that her units can be mutually-supporting, and so that the communication problems that helped the Germans surround the centre are greatly lessened.

How about having Brusilov commanding Second Army and Samsonov commanding Eighth Army?
 

MrP

Banned
How about having Brusilov commanding Second Army and Samsonov commanding Eighth Army?

Aye, a bit of judicious shuffling of commanders wouldn't go amiss, and Brusilov is a good chappy to have in place, I agree.
 
I don't think a change of commanders would be enough.

You'd need more indept changes of the Russian army - another commander of the Northwest Front than Zhilinsky or rather have him get resources to change what he had learned in Manchuria!

Then another set of Army commanders would of course fit nicely and Brusilov due to our hindsight is a good choice. And he did well all through the war AFAIK.

Better radioequipment or rather better training of operators having them to stick to code always!

More artillery munitions to make Russian artillery on par with their German counterpart.
Better officer training to be on par with the Germans.

Better building of communications leading towards the East Prussian border on the Russian side so as the facilitate build up and resupply - in fact it was seen as an advantage as it would hinder a German advance into Poland from East Prussia!

So - no I don't see a Russian victory in East Prussia in 1914.
 
Top