Allies defer on Poland in 1939
- Thread starter M79
- Start date
kham_coc
Banned
Its easy to say that but, what really flipped it was the MR pact. Poland had screwed itself by invading Czechoslovakia just prior to this.
But odds are if there hadn't been the MR pact, the uk and France would have interveened after a few days of polish-german war.
Though there is a bit of a troll scenario in that if Hitler hadn't gotten the war he wanted after Poland, its unclear how he could have gotten it afterwards. There would have been significant pushback for any other wartargets after that point. He silenced criticism against his reckless opportunism after suddeten went his way, but there is nothing left to try to get without a war - and most non nazis didn't want war, generally willing to risk war, but after this point it would just be war.
Since the only things left on the list was AL and Tyrol.
Garrison
Donor
Not unless Chamberlain is looking to be thrown out of office in March 1939. Not only was there broad support for the guarantee but the Military Training Act passed in May. Once the Nazis marched into Prague war was all but inevitable and Poland was going to be the flashpoint.
If England and France do not provide guarantee to Poland, then Poland cuts deal with Hitler allowing Germany to have access to Danzig. Hitler convinces Poland to attack USSR with Germany. Yes the Poles are not Aryan in Hitler's eyes, but Hitler had no problem making an alliance with the Hungarians and Rumanians.
There is an alternate history with this premise. Unfortunately, it is written in Polish, and I am unaware of any translation. As I recall Poland eventually turns on Germany and wins WW II.
If anyone knows of a translation of this alternate history, I would be interested in reading it.
There is an alternate history with this premise. Unfortunately, it is written in Polish, and I am unaware of any translation. As I recall Poland eventually turns on Germany and wins WW II.
If anyone knows of a translation of this alternate history, I would be interested in reading it.
As others has stated, it's extremely unlikely that Britain and France are going to let Hitler get away with invading Poland, especially after he's already shown what his word is worth in March 1939. Now, if Hitler did agree to attend Mussolini's proposed peace conference at the Brenner Pass in the summer of 1939, he might (keyword: might) be able to get Danzig in the peace conference. However, Hitler was intent on not letting another Munich get in the way of his planned invasion of Poland, and in any case, the British and French would almost certainly be less willing to appease Hitler yet again at the Brenner Pass.
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"Pakt Ribbentrop-Beck," a load of delusional wish-fulfillment. It should not be taken seriously, as that ending shows--the road between Berlin and Moscow passes through Warsaw. There is no plausible joint German-Polish invasion of the Soviet Union that doesn't also have Poland saturated in German troops that can easily prevent Poland from changing sides (as the OTL German invasion of Hungary shows).
This writes off all of Eastern Europe, so I would imagine Poland and Romania, and possibly Yugoslavia become German satellites and Hitler attacks either France or the USSR in short order. The Germans were becoming conscious that they were beginning to lose the re-armament race so their window of opportunity was closing and the continental hegemony that could only be obtained through war was a sine qua non of the Nazi regime. I would guess an attack on France first.
kham_coc
Banned
Yes, the only way it could have happened is if Stalin would have had a personality transplantat and attacked Poland after Munich (or Prague).
We gamed something like this. Britain and the USSR ally to contain Germany, while France dithers & makes a non aggression pact with Germany. But, not a Britain alone scenario.
Getting back to the OP
With Britain & France dithering, as Htler hoped, he is free to plan a attack on the USSR in 1940. Pros & Cons to that. If you trace the writings and speeches from Hitlers fevered brain, previous to September 1939, this was a one of his primary fantasies. That he could conquer the Slavs & give Germany considerable strategic depth before "One last final struggle with France." No guarantee of this, but it fits his thinking.
Wasn't Hitler originally intending in early 1939 to attack France (and possibly Britain as well) first in the early 1940s before turning east to invade the Soviet Union? His Obersalzburg speech in August 22, 1939 seems to give me the impression that was his original intention in 1939.
Adolf Hitler said:
His speeches & documents of his meetings with the Foreign office and the Wehrmacht leaders are contradictory. Some people see the trend one way, some another direction. My take is his opportunism would lead him east, as in 1941. In 1939 the Red Army was judged inferior, and more so in 1940. Absent a war in the west defeating the USSR would be a attraction.
That would be an interesting strategic dilemma. If the Germans accept that they are facing a long war with France, then it makes sense to attack the USSR first to secure the resources needed for that kind of war. In OTL they viewed a drawn out struggle with France as a distinct possibility, according to my reading of Wages of Destruction, specifically the way they were prioritizing ammunition production in the winter of 39-40.
kham_coc
Banned
Or feel they have the right sort of cover with France/UK - If say the war is kicked of because the USSR does Winter War - Poland edition, then there might be a scenario where France and the UK sides with Poland (and by proxy Germany).
I think in a scenario where Poland is a German satellite (however reluctant), the USSR is not going to risk attacking it. The Winter War only happened after the Germans gave Moscow the effective go ahead to remodel parts of Eastern Europe in the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact.
I agree with much of what has been said of Pakt Ribbentrop-Beck. But would 40 Polish divisions (I grant that these are primarily poorly equipped infantry division) thrown entirely against Leningrad be enough for the Germans to capture that city and solve some (but certainly not all) of their supply problems?
Of course, without MR, Germany loses out on a TON of resources shipped from the Soviet Union.
Perhaps an earlier ending of the Battle of Khalkhin Gol resulting in Japan and Russia entering an 'understanding' before Sept 39
This results in the Russians attacking Poland on the same day as Germany.
The French and British stunned by the unfolding events and not then willing to go to war with Germany 'and' Russia back of from an ultimatum and instead turtle
This results in the Russians attacking Poland on the same day as Germany.
The French and British stunned by the unfolding events and not then willing to go to war with Germany 'and' Russia back of from an ultimatum and instead turtle