Allied Spain

I think the U-boats were defeated more by aerial attacks on them as they crossed the Bay of Biscay, rather than heavy bombing of the general area surrounding the U-boat pens. They were unsafe crossing the Bay surfaced night or day, yet submerging hugely cut their speed and consumed battery power.

With Spanish bases, maritime patrol aircraft can cover the Biscay lanes from south as well as north. But are sufficient aircraft available in late 1942? The value of long-range patrol aircraft in closing the Mid-Atlantic gap wasn't realised until 1943 really, at least not by the people commanding the heavy bombers used in this role. But Beaufighters and Mosquitos would suffice from Spain.
 
I think the U-boats were defeated more by aerial attacks on them as they crossed the Bay of Biscay, rather than heavy bombing of the general area surrounding the U-boat pens. They were unsafe crossing the Bay surfaced night or day, yet submerging hugely cut their speed and consumed battery power.

With Spanish bases, maritime patrol aircraft can cover the Biscay lanes from south as well as north. But are sufficient aircraft available in late 1942? The value of long-range patrol aircraft in closing the Mid-Atlantic gap wasn't realised until 1943 really, at least not by the people commanding the heavy bombers used in this role. But Beaufighters and Mosquitos would suffice from Spain.
Good point, man. What about, near shore, use tactical bombers to force the U-boats under, and then farther out, long range bombers to force them to stay under. If this were done, it might just seriously impact the tonnage war to come. How far were the type VIIC and type IX boats capable of going submerged? Is it possible that land based air out of Spain and the UK, could keep them under long enough, that their area where the could surface, and where the HAD to surface, would possibly be a rather small, but target rich, sub-hunting ground?

Wow, I just checked and it looks like the subs had less than a 100 mi submerged range @ 4 kts, less if they go faster. Man oh man, the possibilities here. I can see in my minds eye the possible headlines "U-boat peril ENDS, as allied aircraft blanket their operational area, forcing them to face air attacks while surfaced, or to run their batteries dry in futile attempts to stay submerged until out of range of land based allied air, thanks to the timely entry of Spain into the war..."

EDIT***
Corrected link for type IX, now brings up proper info. Sorry for the confusion.
 
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Upon further thoughts, would escort fighters make it possible, well offshore, to establish a "200 mile wide air interdiction zone", where daylight patrols could take place in all but the stormiest weather conditions? And when availible, large squadrons of radar equipped bombers, working such a belt? Could this have been possible, with an Allied Spain?
 
Well, Biscay patrols were being done from English bases already. Having Spain certainly helps but it seems unlikely to be decisive. Here's some sources...

http://uboat.net/maps/biscay.htm
http://www.naval-history.net/WW2CampaignsUboats3.htm this has monthly totals of U-boat losses in Biscay.

The map shows that the patrols were capable of covering all Biscay already, but that it was only 1943 before things really got going. I suspect that reflects a lack of aircraft because the second link shows that patrols had been going on for a long time. Having Spanish bases increases the effectiveness of limited aircraft, because less time is lost in transit. But late 1942 sinkings in Biscay are so low that even doubling them probably won't have a huge effect.
 
True the patrols were already being carried out from English bases. But if you have Spanish bases to operate from you have less travel time to and from the patrol areas which means means more time to patrol the Biscay bay. Also you can introduce lighter units like torpedo boats to harass the German forces in the area. It is true that the Biscay bay is not an ideal area to operate torpedo boats and other light units but any increase in pressure is a good thing.
 
Ok, not much of consensus on what Hitler decides vs France. I'm still thinking in terms of the first week here.

Assuming the decision is to occupy all of France it seems to me the logical thing is to go ahead & start securing the African flank by also seizing Tunisia. That can (no guarantee) forstall a Allied move there. It also provides a base for a attempt to seize part or all of Algerian & possibly Morroco. My best guess is if Op Anton is executed a effort would be made to secure both Tunis & Bizerete the same week.

Opinions?
 
Can they take Algeria and Morrocco with the forces they have in theater? This seems iffy to me, if the French are acting under a unified command (which I think will be the case) they can mount a credible defense with the forces they have in theater, while the Germans/Italians have to split their forces due to the presence of the 8th Army.
 
Can they take Algeria and Morrocco with the forces they have in theater? ....

They could make a start. For the first few months the Axis were able to match the Allies in ground forces reaching Tunisia. Take a look at the OB circa February. In this Op Olive scenario the Allies have the equivalent of the US II Corps & the British 1st Army committed to Spain. So, early on they dont have much of a reserve. At best a corps of 2-3 divisions uncommitted, or the strength of the Wester TF of Op Torch, perhaps less. If then the Axis do manage to seize the Tunisian ports they can attempt to send a couple motor/mechanized corps west towards Algiers. Their logistics problems on that route are going to be larger than the Allied problems, so the odds are they wont make it, but the Axis pulled off some long odds moves. Personally I'd love to see a Axis player do this on the game board. It looks impressive on a map & I'm sure every nazifanboi ever born would love it. but its a terrible logistics drain for the Axis military, and the ground forces there are out on a slender limb.
 
Yes, in OTL. But what did they have available in TTL to do this? (honest question, not rhetorical, I don't have the Green Book Series here, nor any good references on possible reinforcements) WAG on my part, is that it will take, at the most, two weeks before MN subs get on station and start hitting the Axis convoys. There also wont be any indecision about whether or not to resist amongst the French forces that hampered their response TTL. I'll take a look this evening to see how many of the nearly 80 or so subs the MN has are still available.
 
I'll take a look this evening to see how many of the nearly 80 or so subs the MN has are still available.

Only number I have off the top of my head were the 20 or so sunk at the docks in Toloun in November 1942.

WAG on my part, is that it will take, at the most, two weeks before MN subs get on station and start hitting the Axis convoys.

Not exactly sure why the Allied subs were not able to close the Axis shipping routes to Africa from June 1940 to Nov 1942, or what sucess they had after Nov 1942.

A related question is if the Axis could seize the key ports & all weather airfields at Tunis & Bizerte. OTL French indecision allowed them to fly in the airborne force that was rehearsing the current attack plan against Malta. A division size infantry, atillery, tank group garrisoned each city & environs. How long could those well trained but obsoletely armed groups hold against a Axis air assault?
 
I'll have to dig around to see what the French had in the area. IIRC at Mers El Kebir the RN escaped any real air attacks because the Armistice terms demanded the French remove the propellers and batteries from the aircraft. By this time, that is no longer the case, and even an MS406 can take out a Ju82.
According to Couhat's "French Warships of WWII", the MN started the war with 85 subs, and at this time still have 72. There are also the hi speed DD and cruiser forces available for interdiction, although those will suffer if attacked by air.
Another fascinating thread!
 
The ability of the French to deploy interceptors from Algeria or Morroco to Tunis in the first days of a German attack is critical. If they can sustain even fifty operational fighter planes in a day or two it makes a German air assault so much more difficult.

Note that as of 5 Nov 1942 OTL the US and France were not at war wi each other. If this the case when Op Anton is executed it is very simple politically for the US to slip a couple tanker ships of warship and aircraft fuel to the French.
 
So where are we at here so far? We have the allies going into Spain, the Germans deciding what to do with reguards to Vichy France and africa, and what the Vichy are going to do, in France or Africa, is that correct and current?
 
Yep. I was working extra hours the past six days & have neglected a lot of things including this.

My take is is if the Germans execute Op Anton they & the Italians extend that to Tunisia. From the Axis PoV that is a important stratigic point, & the rest of French N Africa would be good to have as well. So, as in OTL we are likely to see Axis ground forces embarking aboard ships for Tunis & airborne forces headed to the Tunisian airfields. OTL those were initially the air and amphib groups designated for the current op planned against Malta. What maters is if Darlan makes a early decision for resisting them. OTL he dithered, in part because the Allies attacked first. but, there were other reasons as well. If the Allies are welcomed into Spain does Darlan refuse the Axis entry into his turf, or order the French army to shoot back, and hope the Americans come to Africa as well?
 
Lets have some opinions on what the Allies do in mid November. To reiterate the assumptions

1. The Allies land 2-3 corps in a friendly Spain, and move to secure the passes in the Pyrinees mountains. They intend to follow up with a air force & assistance to the Spanish army.

2. The Germans move to block or seize the key mountain positions ahead of the Allies, & probablly execute Operation Anton to disarm the French Army and secure unoccupied France, including the critical port group surrounding Marsailles.

3. The Allies have retained a stratigic reserve of a corps with a Armored division & 1-2 infantry divsions, along with a fleet to move it.

So there is a fork at this point. Do the Axis extend Op Anton to Tunisia & beyond, or do they leave NW Africa nuetral? I think its a given they seize the Tunisian ports and march west towards Algeria. But what do others think.

Either way what should the Allies do?

A. attempt to land their reserve in Algeria to forstall the Axis and attempt to bring Darlan & his forces to their side.

B. Leave a still nuetral French Africa alone & retain the reserve.

C. Keep the Axis off balance by some other move?
 
I think if the Germans seize Vichy France, with the western Allies having landed in Spain but not landed in or attacked French north Africa, then the French resist any German move on Tunisia or Algeria. Original timeline, there was confusion with the Allies 'attacking' French North Africa, Darlan dithering, and the Germans offering to 'help repel' the Allied invasion of French North Africa. As I understand it, the Germans started to get troops into Tunisia (ostensibly as allies) and with local Vichy approval on November 9th, 1942, a day or two before 'Case Anton' and the seizure of Vichy ruled France.
I can't see French pride allowing the Germans to gain a foothold in Tunisia if the western Allies aren't 'attacking' French North Africa and the Germans are in the process of (or have just rolled up) mainland Vichy France.
I don't know, if the western Allies are landing in Spain, if Germany could wait to try to get troops into a neutral-ish Tunisia first, either, before moving on Vichy mainland France.

So, I think, events probably proceed:
1) Western Allies land in Spain. Franco declares against Germany as soon as the landings (probably initially of planes flying off carriers to Spanish airfields, to cover troops arriving by boat/ship) arrive, and expels diplomats, gives appropriate notice to volunteers fighting in Russia of what to do, etc, etc.
2) Hitler rants and raves, about Franco's treachery, and about the importance of stopping the allies at the Pyrenees, at the very least. He sends a message to the Vichy government: German troops will be moving into the territory you currently control in a couple of hours time, irrespective what you do. Are you on our side or not? He possibly offers France Spanish Morocco, for what that's worth (if anything) as a 'bribe'. He also notifies Mussolini to be ready to move to seize southern France and Corsica.
3) The French are (most likely) largely unimpressed. Laval tries to negotiate with Hitler and Marshal Petain and to reconcile them, but fails. The German tanks start to roll. Darlan orders the French fleet (which has been fiddling with its fuel gauges) out of Toulon and to French North Africa. If he's not already in French North Africa at this date, he possibly accompanies the fleet.
4) Orders are given by Darlan to French North Africa to resist any German/Italian landings or attempts to bring troops in by sea or land.
5) Possibly Petain stays in mainland France, declining to leave it, and is captured by the Germans. In the meantime Darlan sends a message to Washington noting that between Franco's forces and the western Allied forces now landing in Spain, the western Allies have somewhere close to the 'if you come with twenty divisions, we will ally with you' figure (I think that with Franco it *probably* comes close to this) and asking if they would like to fight alongside France, and put forces (or equipment) in French North Africa to help repel any landing attempt from Italy and/or to attack Libya from the west? At the very least, the French fleet in North Africa needs fuel, to fight.
6) What next????
 
I would vote, but need a bit of information first, what do the occupiers of Corsica have? The allies have three divisions in reserve, 1 armored and 2 Inf? What does allied intel say the Axis occupation forces in Corsica have to fight off an immediate allied invasion?

Other than that option, wait till invited to go into NW Africa, and then land far away from the front, maxing tha axis over extend themselves in a theater where they had a bad logistics train already, and where newly aquired ports are going to cause them to have to bring their shipping within range of allied aircraft and submarines, or use the OTL ports, and suck up that much more land transportation away from other places.

My guiding principles for the allied forces, fight the axis in the beginning only where their supply train is as extended as possibly, and ours is as short as possible, until all forces are settled and situated, and fully supplied. So a limited, "Meet and Greet" in the mountain passes is fine, but make no effort to stop the Axis from extending their forces as far as then can to the west in africa.

If the allies think that they can get away with a quick, surprise invasion of Corsica, then do that.
 
Lets have some opinions on what the Allies do in mid November. To reiterate the assumptions

1. The Allies land 2-3 corps in a friendly Spain, and move to secure the passes in the Pyrinees mountains. They intend to follow up with a air force & assistance to the Spanish army.

2. The Germans move to block or seize the key mountain positions ahead of the Allies, & probablly execute Operation Anton to disarm the French Army and secure unoccupied France, including the critical port group surrounding Marsailles.

3. The Allies have retained a stratigic reserve of a corps with a Armored division & 1-2 infantry divsions, along with a fleet to move it.

So there is a fork at this point. Do the Axis extend Op Anton to Tunisia & beyond, or do they leave NW Africa nuetral? I think its a given they seize the Tunisian ports and march west towards Algeria. But what do others think.

Either way what should the Allies do?

A. attempt to land their reserve in Algeria to forstall the Axis and attempt to bring Darlan & his forces to their side.

B. Leave a still nuetral French Africa alone & retain the reserve.

C. Keep the Axis off balance by some other move?
Short answer, C.

And thanks again Carl.
 
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