Shadow Master
Banned
We would need to present some parameters.
1) Do the allies leave port knowing they are going to be landing in a newly allied Spain? Or do they leave as in OTL, and the plan changes only once the Spanish learn they have troops afloat/in motion?
2) Do the Vichy French know what is in the works?
3) Does the Spanish DoW trigger Anton? Or do the Germans wait until they see what happens?
For #1 above, the more folks know about it, the less likely it will come as a surprise to either the Germans or Vichy. My personal preference would be that the allies know nothing of Spanish intentions, except at the very highest levels. Given that we are positing the Spanish entering the war suddenly, do they mass troops at the Vichy boarder, and thus likely tip off the Germans by doing so? Either way, do the Spanish plan to themselves to enter Vichy, with or without Anton? My vote would be that they plan to sit tight, and adopt a wait and see approach, and do nothing with reguard to Vichy until after allied boots are firmly on the ground on Spanish soil. This means there would have to be a move on the part of Germany, into Vichy, before a boarder crossing would take place.
For #2, if the Vichy do not know anything about the Spanish entry into the war until they hear about it on the radio (the most likely to maintain surprise), then we need to know if they have their 100,000 troops mustered, or do they need time to moblise them/move them into position, and if so, what is to be their disposition? For all I know, the Vichy forces may either be in their homes, or deployed in operational formations, but from learning that the coastal batteries in Toulon were being manned by sailors, I would assume that their 100,000 man allowed light infantry are not mobalized. Just speculation on my part there, anyone know what the Vichy troop strength/disposition was?
For #3, this is the problem that Hitler faces. His best bet IMHO, is to go with Anton right off, and order attacks against newly enemy locations in the med and NW africa. He just lost a great big deal of his willing foreign trade (his plunder is unaffected), and he will be greatly affected by Franco's betraying him, so I would expect him to order some type of immediate reprisal to take place. OTOH, we know that historically, Hitler hoped to that the British betrayal, would lead to the Vichy french joining him against the UK. As it turned out, it didn't, but in OTL there were not UK and US (nor Spanish, for that matter), boots on the ground, IN FRANCE. This situation here, however, could go either way.
So basically we need to know who does what and when, and who knew about it ahead of time (long enough to be able to do something about it), and what reactions their preparations may trigger. Does Franco have allied assurances that their troops are going to be landing in support of his DoW? Does he want to start off with an initial defensive or offensive posture?
For myself, my feelings are that if this operation has any chance of being a surprise, the Spanish army would not be given a heads up until the DoW is made public, and neither the Spanish nor allied forces would be deployed into Vichy territory initially. On the German side, Hitler, might (stress might), give Vichy Franch the choice of joining the Axis and fighting along side his troops, or to be occupied, and if so, what do they decide if given such a choice?
I know that militarialy, the best offensive plan would be to take the passes, and form a defensive parameter on Vichy soil, but will this incite the French to side with the Germans? Historically, no foreign troops entered Vichy France itself until after the allies invaded their african possessions. My opinion, the allies and Spanish, will want to get things sorted out on the ground, before making any offensive moves, so even though the best theoretical plan would be to take the passes, I don't believe that such would in fact take place. If and when the Vichy join the allies, and request immediate assistance, I wounder if that would be granted, and how that would go if it was.
I think that the most likely course of action (and IMHO best action), would be to make secure landings in newly allied Spanish territory, and wait for the Germans to invade Vichy and await the French reaction before committing troops to France. This gives the Vichy forces the best chance and reason to side with the Allies, and not go over to the German side, or just remain neutral. To me, this consideration would far outweigh any other course of action. The French have already seen one betrayal at the hands of the UK, and the US may well want to make darn sure that any US boots on Vichy ground, to be seen as liberators, not invaders.
Other considerations to think about:
A) At this time, all the European armies have combat experienced ground formations, the USA does not.
B) While the allies seem to be ahead in the air, historical ground war performance in NW africa would seem to indicate that caution would be the better part of valor initially.
C) If the allies wish to fully exploit their airpower advantage, they will need time to set up airbases and move their forces to these bases, work out their supply situations and local laison, before beginning offensive operations. Not sure how long this would take, a week or two would seem not unreasonable as a minimum SWAG.
D) For a ground war front, going into Vichy, without first establishing a firm base of supply from Spain, would probably not be a good idea or gamble. A defensive stance, with the barrier of a mountianous front as a deterrent, would seem to be the best initial goal for the allies, unless their is a belief that the French could hold the Germans off long enough for the allies to bring their ground forces to bare.
E) Fighting a ground war front, in Vichy, within hours/days of Spanish entry to the war, without taking the time to establish a firm foundation for the secure landing and moving forward of supplies, nor taking the time to establish that of the Air-war forces bases and logistics, would be a 'gamble to far' IMHO, one that the Allies should not take.
Thoughts?
1) Do the allies leave port knowing they are going to be landing in a newly allied Spain? Or do they leave as in OTL, and the plan changes only once the Spanish learn they have troops afloat/in motion?
2) Do the Vichy French know what is in the works?
3) Does the Spanish DoW trigger Anton? Or do the Germans wait until they see what happens?
For #1 above, the more folks know about it, the less likely it will come as a surprise to either the Germans or Vichy. My personal preference would be that the allies know nothing of Spanish intentions, except at the very highest levels. Given that we are positing the Spanish entering the war suddenly, do they mass troops at the Vichy boarder, and thus likely tip off the Germans by doing so? Either way, do the Spanish plan to themselves to enter Vichy, with or without Anton? My vote would be that they plan to sit tight, and adopt a wait and see approach, and do nothing with reguard to Vichy until after allied boots are firmly on the ground on Spanish soil. This means there would have to be a move on the part of Germany, into Vichy, before a boarder crossing would take place.
For #2, if the Vichy do not know anything about the Spanish entry into the war until they hear about it on the radio (the most likely to maintain surprise), then we need to know if they have their 100,000 troops mustered, or do they need time to moblise them/move them into position, and if so, what is to be their disposition? For all I know, the Vichy forces may either be in their homes, or deployed in operational formations, but from learning that the coastal batteries in Toulon were being manned by sailors, I would assume that their 100,000 man allowed light infantry are not mobalized. Just speculation on my part there, anyone know what the Vichy troop strength/disposition was?
For #3, this is the problem that Hitler faces. His best bet IMHO, is to go with Anton right off, and order attacks against newly enemy locations in the med and NW africa. He just lost a great big deal of his willing foreign trade (his plunder is unaffected), and he will be greatly affected by Franco's betraying him, so I would expect him to order some type of immediate reprisal to take place. OTOH, we know that historically, Hitler hoped to that the British betrayal, would lead to the Vichy french joining him against the UK. As it turned out, it didn't, but in OTL there were not UK and US (nor Spanish, for that matter), boots on the ground, IN FRANCE. This situation here, however, could go either way.
So basically we need to know who does what and when, and who knew about it ahead of time (long enough to be able to do something about it), and what reactions their preparations may trigger. Does Franco have allied assurances that their troops are going to be landing in support of his DoW? Does he want to start off with an initial defensive or offensive posture?
For myself, my feelings are that if this operation has any chance of being a surprise, the Spanish army would not be given a heads up until the DoW is made public, and neither the Spanish nor allied forces would be deployed into Vichy territory initially. On the German side, Hitler, might (stress might), give Vichy Franch the choice of joining the Axis and fighting along side his troops, or to be occupied, and if so, what do they decide if given such a choice?
I know that militarialy, the best offensive plan would be to take the passes, and form a defensive parameter on Vichy soil, but will this incite the French to side with the Germans? Historically, no foreign troops entered Vichy France itself until after the allies invaded their african possessions. My opinion, the allies and Spanish, will want to get things sorted out on the ground, before making any offensive moves, so even though the best theoretical plan would be to take the passes, I don't believe that such would in fact take place. If and when the Vichy join the allies, and request immediate assistance, I wounder if that would be granted, and how that would go if it was.
I think that the most likely course of action (and IMHO best action), would be to make secure landings in newly allied Spanish territory, and wait for the Germans to invade Vichy and await the French reaction before committing troops to France. This gives the Vichy forces the best chance and reason to side with the Allies, and not go over to the German side, or just remain neutral. To me, this consideration would far outweigh any other course of action. The French have already seen one betrayal at the hands of the UK, and the US may well want to make darn sure that any US boots on Vichy ground, to be seen as liberators, not invaders.
Other considerations to think about:
A) At this time, all the European armies have combat experienced ground formations, the USA does not.
B) While the allies seem to be ahead in the air, historical ground war performance in NW africa would seem to indicate that caution would be the better part of valor initially.
C) If the allies wish to fully exploit their airpower advantage, they will need time to set up airbases and move their forces to these bases, work out their supply situations and local laison, before beginning offensive operations. Not sure how long this would take, a week or two would seem not unreasonable as a minimum SWAG.
D) For a ground war front, going into Vichy, without first establishing a firm base of supply from Spain, would probably not be a good idea or gamble. A defensive stance, with the barrier of a mountianous front as a deterrent, would seem to be the best initial goal for the allies, unless their is a belief that the French could hold the Germans off long enough for the allies to bring their ground forces to bare.
E) Fighting a ground war front, in Vichy, within hours/days of Spanish entry to the war, without taking the time to establish a firm foundation for the secure landing and moving forward of supplies, nor taking the time to establish that of the Air-war forces bases and logistics, would be a 'gamble to far' IMHO, one that the Allies should not take.
Thoughts?
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