Allied Spain

Thought I'd try to game this out in a sort of lite Map Ex

Premise is Spanis government has been friendlier to the Allies after the US entry & Salazar has been 'persuaded'. So Operation Olive is executed with landing day set for 6th November.

Germans had two half trained Pz Corps in France. One was the new SS, the other of units recovering from the Eastern Front. 10-15% of the equipment was German for technical training of drivers and mechanics, the rest was French for field training. Those are shown near Paris. There were the equivalent of three more corps of 'mobile' infantry. The rest were static divisions that garrisoned the ports.

The Eastern TF sets off first. It is comprised similar to the ETF of torch & is the core of Andersons Br 1st Army. Its primary target is Barcelona with secondary targets of the Baleric Islands & a site closer to the Pyrenees mountain passes. When the ETF depart the UK the same deception op is pulled as OTL, first the word to the German spiy handlers is the target is Brittany, second it it is a renforcement for Egypt, third when it passes Gibralter is the target is Sardinia. these are the same deceptions as OTL & Hitler fell for all of them. When the ETF turns north the deception target is France.

Western TF is the same as the Central TF of Op Torch, the US II Corps. It departs the UK about the same time as the ETF reaches the Med. It is the basis for the same initial deception stories: France - Egypt

The Reserve TF is the same as the WTF of Op Torch. That is Pattons I Armored Corps. It is the floating reserve & I parked it off Cadiz.

The Lisboa TF is mostly service units, Azores TF is mostly ASW & service units

Spainish Army mobilizes enough to to defend the mountain passes & cover the coast against italian Navy raids.

Now, I am sure everyone wants to start drawing big arrows all over the map. However, one step at a time. There is only one question at this point. Put on your French Kepi & think like Petain. What action do you take with the French military in the first 48 hours??

Thats the only question I want a concensus on for today.

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I get in first on this one! Immediate departure of all ships in Toulon that can, and prep all others for departure as quickly as can be. Do the allies in your setup get word to him before hand?
 
It's not going to happen, not with Franco at the helm of the country. Franco was essentially pro-Axis, one only needs to look into the portrayal of WWII in the press of the time and even up to 1944 Franco hoped for a reversal of the conflict and a German victory. It simply is not going to happen, he came really really close to declaring war on the Allies several times from 1940 through 1943 during public speeches when he got too carried away by his anti-Allied feelings. Anglophobia, Americanophobia and anti-Communism were very strong in the upper echelons of the Francoism regime. Anglophobia because Gibraltar and Spanish traditional dislike for Britain, Americanophobia because Franco was from Ferrol and the city suffered a lot from the loss of the colonies to the Americans (including him joining the Navy) and anti-Communism, well it is fairly obvious. And the more anti-communist regimes were the Nazis.

However, the period between 1943 and 1953 was when Franco was at his weakest and there could have been a monarchist coup from the upper Army echelon (which was staunchly monarchist, the Francoists were still NCOs and lower level officers at the time) to restore a Borbon monarchy under Juan, but I'm not sure how that'd happen, they were pretty inept at plotting it OTL.
 
However, the period between 1943 and 1953 was when Franco was at his weakest and there could have been a monarchist coup from the upper Army echelon (which was staunchly monarchist, the Francoists were still NCOs and lower level officers at the time) to restore a Borbon monarchy under Juan, but I'm not sure how that'd happen, they were pretty inept at plotting it OTL.
Well that's interesting. Franco gets really carried away in a major speech and comes within a hair's breadth of declaring war in say mid-1944 like you mentioned, the Royalists get worried that he's going to effectively jump off a cliff and take the country, or more importantly them, with him, so launch a successful coup d'etat. Doesn't really affect things during WWII but makes them very different post-war.

Not knowing much about the internal Nationalist/Falangist set-up was there anyone like in Italy that could force Franco into changing sides and declaring war once the Germans had been pushed back towards the Rhineland?
 
Well that's interesting. Franco gets really carried away in a major speech and comes within a hair's breadth of declaring war in say mid-1944 like you mentioned, the Royalists get worried that he's going to effectively jump off a cliff and take the country, or more importantly them, with him, so launch a successful coup d'etat. Doesn't really affect things during WWII but makes them very different post-war.

Not knowing much about the internal Nationalist/Falangist set-up was there anyone like in Italy that could force Franco into changing sides and declaring war once the Germans had been pushed back towards the Rhineland?

He came perilously close too, OTL. You'd need something else, to be honest. It would definitely completely change the country after the war, because Juan was Atlanticist, but he knew his support was very divided between the monarchist-authoritarians (alfonsinos) that supported him from within the regime and in the monarchist press like the ABC and the democratic-monarchists (juanistas) that made up his personal entourage in Estoril, men like Gil-Robles, who even held talks with the PSOE and the republican authorities (although less so).

No. The institutional setting of the Francoist regime in 1943 was still in its infancy, that is to say there was barely a setting just yet. There's no 'formal' check on his power, like there were with Mussolini (the big bosses of the PNF, the King who could and did turn on him in 1943), but in Franco's case, with a personalist (as opposed to a party/ideological/institutionalised) dictatorship it is much, much harder to do so. Franco would have to be coupled, either violently or in a palace-style coup forcing him to resign/abdicate. I don't think that'd cause a new civil war, but there'd be violence between the factions, especially as at the time, money and power had not yet cosied up the difficult relations between carlists and falangists, who deeply resented being merged into the same party, the FET, or National Movement.
 
I get in first on this one! Immediate departure of all ships in Toulon that can, and prep all others for departure as quickly as can be. Do the allies in your setup get word to him before hand?

One of the armistice protocols was a severe restriction on the quantity of fuel that could be embarked. Only a few tons needed for housekeeping was allowed. I don't know how much remained at the naval base storage. Loading the fuel would be imeadiatly reported by the German Armistice inspectors. They'd have to be arrested or killed to delay the news.

OTL the Allies felt Vichy France was to insecure for such information. During 1942 the US ambassador had discussed the question in a general way with Darlan. There was also the failed attempt to contact Darlan just before op Torch. Petain & co. Knew something was up. They did not figure out the dates.

Any other opinions on Petains decisions in the first few days?
 
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One of the armistice protocols was a severe restriction on the quantity of fuel that could be embarked. Only a few tons needed for housekeeping was allowed. I don't know how much remained at the naval base storage. Loading the fuel would be imeadiatly reported by the German Armistice inspectors. They'd have to be arrested or killed to delay the news.

Any other opinions on Petains decisions in the first few days?
That was indeed the plan, but HERE tells a different tale:

"Under armistice provisions, the French ships were supposed to have their fuel tanks almost empty; in fact, through falsification of reports and tampering with gauges, the crews had managed to store enough fuel to reach North Africa".

So yea, the French ships could get away, if they tried to do so as soon as the first Germans violated Vichy Neutrality, whether in France or Africa.

As far as any ground forces, what did He have in France? The shore batteries were maned by sailors, so he cannot mount any ground operation (Possibly he could ask for voulenteers to head for the mountain passes and their approaches, but that doesn't sound to feasible to me) at home, so I guess that the decisions your looking for are military (african) and political? Alert the armed forces under his control, and get them ready for whatever comes their way. I would likely expect him to attempt to at least find out if the allies are willing to recognise his govt and athority, and welcome them into the Alliance, should the Germans act rashly and invade.
 
That was indeed the plan, but HERE tells a different tale:

"Under armistice provisions, the French ships were supposed to have their fuel tanks almost empty; in fact, through falsification of reports and tampering with gauges, the crews had managed to store enough fuel to reach North Africa".

So yea, the French ships could get away, if they tried to do so as soon as the first Germans violated Vichy Neutrality, whether in France or Africa.

As far as any ground forces, what did He have in France? The shore batteries were maned by sailors, so he cannot mount any ground operation (Possibly he could ask for voulenteers to head for the mountain passes and their approaches, but that doesn't sound to feasible to me) at home, so I guess that the decisions your looking for are military (african) and political? Alert the armed forces under his control, and get them ready for whatever comes their way. I would likely expect him to attempt to at least find out if the allies are willing to recognise his govt and athority, and welcome them into the Alliance, should the Germans act rashly and invade.

Thanks for that important info.

In unoccupied France the armistice allowed 100,000 soldiers, & no reserve of any sort. Tanks and aircraft were not allowed, & only light artillery. Of course Petains government cheated, but I don't have many details. About 200 agricultural trucks had been imported from the US. In secret armored bodies had been fabricated for those. A Enigma encryption breaking operation continued. OTL when Op Torch went down a general tried to organize his command to seize Bourdeux. He was relieved before any of his soldiers acted.

At best the metropolitan army could delay a invasion for a few days, maybe hold out in some fortresses or mountains a few weeks.
 
Thanks for that important info.

In unoccupied France the armistice allowed 100,000 soldiers, & no reserve of any sort. Tanks and aircraft were not allowed, & only light artillery. Of course Petains government cheated, but I don't have many details. About 200 agricultural trucks had been imported from the US. In secret armored bodies had been fabricated for those. A Enigma encryption breaking operation continued. OTL when Op Torch went down a general tried to organize his command to seize Bourdeux. He was relieved before any of his soldiers acted.

At best the metropolitan army could delay a invasion for a few days, maybe hold out in some fortresses or mountains a few weeks.
Yes, I have to agree, but then again, with allied troops landing in Spain, how long would the French forces need to delay any German advance on the passes until relieved by Spanish, American, and British troops? Someone else mentioned this up-thread, and if the plan were to go on the offensive right off the bat (something I would argue against), then I would think that this would be part of the plan from the get go, as far as Spanish troops goes.
 
Yes, I have to agree, but then again, with allied troops landing in Spain, how long would the French forces need to delay any German advance on the passes until relieved by Spanish, American, and British troops? Someone else mentioned this up-thread, and if the plan were to go on the offensive right off the bat (something I would argue against),

I dont have any information on where the soldiers in the unoccupied region were posted. Looking over the terrain then from a strictly military stand point the Western TF would be better off landing at Bayonne & linking with the French army there. However there are other arguments against such a aggresive plan.

...then I would think that this would be part of the plan from the get go, as far as Spanish troops goes.

Hard to think Spain did not have a plan for defending the north border.

Getting back to Petain & the other French leaders; When the US Ambassador Adm Leahey was 'chatting' with Darlan in mid 1942 Darlan i suposed to have said 'If you come with three divisions we will fight you, if you come with twenty we will join you.' Since Op Torch landed nine or ten divisions, neither three nor twenty, I have to wonder if that had something to do with the French indecision that week.
 
Thought I'd try to game this out in a sort of lite Map Ex

Premise is Spanis government has been friendlier to the Allies after the US entry & Salazar has been 'persuaded'. So Operation Olive is executed with landing day set for 6th November.

Germans had two half trained Pz Corps in France. One was the new SS, the other of units recovering from the Eastern Front. 10-15% of the equipment was German for technical training of drivers and mechanics, the rest was French for field training. Those are shown near Paris. There were the equivalent of three more corps of 'mobile' infantry. The rest were static divisions that garrisoned the ports.

The Eastern TF sets off first. It is comprised similar to the ETF of torch & is the core of Andersons Br 1st Army. Its primary target is Barcelona with secondary targets of the Baleric Islands & a site closer to the Pyrenees mountain passes. When the ETF depart the UK the same deception op is pulled as OTL, first the word to the German spiy handlers is the target is Brittany, second it it is a renforcement for Egypt, third when it passes Gibralter is the target is Sardinia. these are the same deceptions as OTL & Hitler fell for all of them. When the ETF turns north the deception target is France.

Western TF is the same as the Central TF of Op Torch, the US II Corps. It departs the UK about the same time as the ETF reaches the Med. It is the basis for the same initial deception stories: France - Egypt

The Reserve TF is the same as the WTF of Op Torch. That is Pattons I Armored Corps. It is the floating reserve & I parked it off Cadiz.

The Lisboa TF is mostly service units, Azores TF is mostly ASW & service units

Spainish Army mobilizes enough to to defend the mountain passes & cover the coast against italian Navy raids.

Now, I am sure everyone wants to start drawing big arrows all over the map. However, one step at a time. There is only one question at this point. Put on your French Kepi & think like Petain. What action do you take with the French military in the first 48 hours??

Thats the only question I want a concensus on for today.

The French are screwed. If the allies are merely landing in Spain to build up a base for future operation, the French cannot hope to hold out against Nazi occupation. Theoretically, they could create a defensive perimeter around one of the ports and hope to hold out in hopes of an allied follow up landing. But, that would require coordination between the Wallies and Vichy that wasnt there. And if it doesnt work quickly, the Germans will exact a brutal retribution.

It might force Vichy to put a defensive line up facing the Spanish and offer to provide the Germans access to airfields and ports in order to avoid what would be a crushing invasion and occupation by the Nazis. They would mimic the US' role in the Atlantic pre-Pearl.

As to the Germans, I think they are still better off. Those divisions they sent to Italy they now send to France where they can reinforce an invasion from England or head off an invasion from Spain. Italy likely stays in the war longer.

The one potential benefit of Spain is that, if done in conjunction with Normandy, it might make for a quicker advance through France than what Dragoon offered, particularly if they can take Bordeaux. But that probably requires a whole new level of operational planning, coordination, and supply. And it is still a long way to go.

What is Germany's ability to contest the air in the Bay of Biscay? Does that Western TF get hit from land based German aircraft while approaching the coast?
 
Of course, if we really want things thrown for a curve:

-Republicans win the Spanish Civil War; if the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact still goes through, then the Republicans (who will follow the Soviet lead) initially stay neutral.
-Following *Barbarossa, they are sympathetic to the Soviets, but hardly in a position to intervene immediately
-Once the Allies are ready to invade Europe, the Spanish Republicans join in
 
...
What is Germany's ability to contest the air in the Bay of Biscay? Does that Western TF get hit from land based German aircraft while approaching the coast?

As of 6th November 1942 Germany had less than 300 operational aircraft in France & Belgium. Between 280 & 295 depending on how you interprete 'operational. Most of those were stationed east of Paris to reduce losses from Allied air attacks. I'm unsure how many were stationed south along the Biscay coast. Perhaps fifty? The main reserve Germany has is the air corps stationed in Sicilly for attacking Malta, attacking the Brit navy, and reinforcing air ops in Lybia. IIRC there were over 1,000 that could be moved from the Med/Balkans, tho building up ground support around Bourdeux & Bayonne would slow air ops. There were over 600 in Germany including night interceptor groups and training units that could be used for combat. Another 200 - 250 were in Norway that month. In the east were around 3,000 but those are deeply engaged with the Soviet forces. OTL the Allies were able to increase the number of operational aircraft in Algeria/Tunisia by roughly 700 per month from Nov 1942 through Feb 1943.

Allied ASW needs to be on its toes. Otherwise they will lose some ships to the subs that can surge from the French bases.
 
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Note that if Franco (or some successor regime) is alerted ahead of time to the Allied landing, you greatly increase the odds of an Axis sympathizer in the Spanish government warning the Germans.

OTL they implemented Case Anton within a few days of Torch (Torch landings November 8, Germans essentially overrun mainland Vichy France by the end of the 11th); I'd expect Spanish entry to result in the Germans pulling the trigger on Anton as well as soon as they get a hint of it, and an Allied landing definitely would. I'm dubious the Allies could reach the Pyrenees in time to prevent the Germans from establishing defensive lines.
 
You are saying Petain has a better bet for the near term in continuing strict nuetrality?

Consider Darlan's response regarding North Africa and extrapolate that to the south of France.

After that, well, lets look at my assumptions:

1) The invasion occurs roughly the same time as Torch - late fall or early winter 1943-43. There is no threat to an invasion across the channel so this will temporarily free up German units to secure southern France. Further, as its winter, they can possibly free up additional units perhaps from the Eastern Front. Not sure how Stalingrad affects this though.
2) You stated earlier the French had 100,000 troops that are probably best described as light infantry. Limited artillery, no armor, and no air force.
3) I assume their operational readiness is rather limited. How much training have they been doing?
4) Based on Shadow's statement's, this is done for the purpose of establishing a base of operations for future actions in France. I assume these will be separate operations with all of the planning and procuring still to come. So no immediate landings in southern France. If this is wrong, that changes the equation. But Petain also has to know he will have support. Do the allies share this?
5) Between Northern France and other fronts, the Germans can rather quickly move forces to France for the required invasion of Vichy territory that are big enough to execute the attack and stifle any immediate follow on attacks by the allies.

Looking at these assumptions, the Germans should be able to overrun Vichy France fairly quickly. Light infantry cant hold the south of France outside of the mountain ranges. Toulouse and Marseille are quickly occupied. And if the Germans do overrun Vichy, they will be brutal on the French.

Assumption 5 is probably the weakest although its relative to the allied ability to move quickly as well. If this is part of a series of actions that include quick follow on landings in the south of France, well that's different. Do the allies have the operational experience to execute something like this at this time? My guess is likely not. But then if the Vichy forces open up Marseille's port and hold it so the allies can arrive before the Germans arrive, well, there you go. Intuition says that was beyond our capabilities at that point. It just seems rather far fetched.

Add it up and I would be surprised if the French didnt attempt to play neutral still.

You have a lot of knowledge on WWII and professional experience. I am quite interested in any flawed assumptions here.
 
Note that if Franco (or some successor regime) is alerted ahead of time to the Allied landing, you greatly increase the odds of an Axis sympathizer in the Spanish government warning the Germans.

OTL they implemented Case Anton within a few days of Torch (Torch landings November 8, Germans essentially overrun mainland Vichy France by the end of the 11th); I'd expect Spanish entry to result in the Germans pulling the trigger on Anton as well as soon as they get a hint of it, and an Allied landing definitely would. I'm dubious the Allies could reach the Pyrenees in time to prevent the Germans from establishing defensive lines.
I like your answer better than mine.
 
Petains Decision

Consider Darlan's response regarding North Africa and extrapolate that to the south of France.

... my assumptions:

1) The invasion occurs roughly the same time as Torch - late fall or early winter 1943-43. There is no threat to an invasion across the channel so this will temporarily free up German units to secure southern France. Further, as its winter, they can possibly free up additional units perhaps from the Eastern Front. Not sure how Stalingrad affects this though.
2) You stated earlier the French had 100,000 troops that are probably best described as light infantry. Limited artillery, no armor, and no air force.
3) I assume their operational readiness is rather limited. How much training have they been doing?
4) Based on Shadow's statement's, this is done for the purpose of establishing a base of operations for future actions in France. I assume these will be separate operations with all of the planning and procuring still to come. So no immediate landings in southern France. If this is wrong, that changes the equation. But Petain also has to know he will have support. Do the allies share this?
5) Between Northern France and other fronts, the Germans can rather quickly move forces to France for the required invasion of Vichy territory that are big enough to execute the attack and stifle any immediate follow on attacks by the allies.

Looking at these assumptions, the Germans should be able to overrun Vichy France fairly quickly. Light infantry cant hold the south of France outside of the mountain ranges. Toulouse and Marseille are quickly occupied. And if the Germans do overrun Vichy, they will be brutal on the French.

Assumption 5 is probably the weakest although its relative to the allied ability to move quickly as well. If this is part of a series of actions that include quick follow on landings in the south of France, well that's different. Do the allies have the operational experience to execute something like this at this time? My guess is likely not. But then if the Vichy forces open up Marseille's port and hold it so the allies can arrive before the Germans arrive, well, there you go. Intuition says that was beyond our capabilities at that point. It just seems rather far fetched.

Add it up and I would be surprised if the French didnt attempt to play neutral still.

...

My knowledge still has enormous holes in it.

So far we have two posts here suggesting Petain would attempt to stick with neutrality for at least a few days after Spain opens its ports to the Allies. Hope I'm not over interpreting those. That matches my best guess. If the Allies have information otherwise then I placed the Allied Reserve TF in the wrong place. Off Cadiz its about 900 nautical miles from Marsailles/Toloun or 50+ hours at 18 knots; 60 hours at 15 knots. Depends on how fast the transports can go. Rushing off to Marsailles also risks interfearnce from the Italian fleet & air force.
 
Op Olive 2.jpg
Hitlers Decision First 72 Hours

So, what are the Germans up to? We can guess they will react to the departure of the two TF from the UK the same as OTL. That is first having a anti invasion stand to in France. OTL the Pz Corps & the SS Corps moved to assembly areas between Paris & the coast. When the Allied TF entered the Med 4 Nov OTL the Axis forces there were alerted. Hitler initially decided Sardinia was the Allied target & did not accept Algeria was the objective until some 12 hours after the Allied landings started.

Note that if Franco (or some successor regime) is alerted ahead of time to the Allied landing, you greatly increase the odds of an Axis sympathizer in the Spanish government warning the Germans.

Yep. it would have to be confined to a very few individuals at the top. Even then the odds are against security.

OTL they implemented Case Anton within a few days of Torch (Torch landings November 8, Germans essentially overrun mainland Vichy France by the end of the 11th); I'd expect Spanish entry to result in the Germans pulling the trigger on Anton as well as soon as they get a hint of it, and an Allied landing definitely would. I'm dubious the Allies could reach the Pyrenees in time to prevent the Germans from establishing defensive lines.

Given the confusion over where the Allied fleets were headed they did not pull the trigger on Op Anton until after the landings started. The order was issued 8 Nov. The principle units were ready to move 10 Nov.

... and an Allied landing definitely would. I'm dubious the Allies could reach the Pyrenees in time to prevent the Germans from establishing defensive lines.

As long as the Germans stay thinking defensively...

Looking at the relative positions of the two mobile corps of the Germans - near Paris, they have some long road marches. How fast they could have knocked aside French resistance affects this, that is assuming the French resist. OTL Petain tried to maintain nuetrality even when the Germans crossed into unoccupied France. There was a German corps with a weak infantry division at Bayonne. Not sure if it was still a static unit in Nov 42 or a field division with at least some horses for the artillery & supply wagons. Ditto for the other German garrisons at Bordeux & Nantes. If capturing the passes depends on the motorized forces of the SS & Pz corps then the odds are less in the Germans favor.

How close do the Allies land to the border? Landing off on the opposite side of Spain is pointless, at least for the initial groups. Landing near the coastal passes gives the Allies a chance to secure the French side. On the east side Barcelona was a fair port, and the roads north were not impossible. The mountains dont look as rugged at the east end. On the west.

The Spanish have something to say about this as well. If their soldiers on the border are willing to fight the Germans it tips things further in the Allies favor.
 
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