Allied response to the fall of Egypt

  • Thread starter Deleted member 1487
  • Start date
I wouldn't have thought the Suez canal would have been much of a serious military obstacle, certainly not one of the scale of the English Channel or Sicilian Narrows, the Egyptians crossed easily enough in 1973 and so di the Israelis a fortnight later.. Sure its reasonable and defences would be set up on it if that's where the Germans wanted to hold, but its more like a river crossing that can be bridged and armies can be formed up in areas just out of reach of German airpower in the Delta.

Egyptianbridge.jpg
 

BlondieBC

Banned
The cascade from what comes out of it is the most important question to answer. Does the Axis come upon documents as the British flee Alex to lead them to believe their codes are compromised? Does this cause uprisings in the Islamic world with them sensing British weakness? Does Churchill survive the likely no confidence vote and if not who takes over?

It will mean the war in North Africa goes extra innings. It could mean that the WAllies are busy bombing Egyptian cities in 43 and early 44 instead of a main focus on Germany itself. It could alter the quantity of LL that comes to the USSR in 42-44 as more moves to Britain.

The end of the war in Europe might look fairly different, though if the WAllies, Germans and/or Soviet's don't agree to a peace with any conditions before the end it at most it ends a few months later once nukes come online though likely with the Soviet's and Germany fighting over Poland given Germany would be able to better prioritize the fight in the East and produce more war materials in any case.

I would tend to lean towards the codes breaking remaining a secret. Not sure on Islamic uprising during the war, but would be big money the Europeans have a much harder time in the MENA area post war.

Now I don't see why you bomb Egypt, not in any significant way. Here is a run at TL.

October 1942 - Rommel wins big, begins occupying Egypt.

November 1942 - Torch happens. Late in month, single allied division arrives in Tunisia.

December 1942 - Stalemate in Tunisia IOTL, same here.

February 1943 - US forces perform badly in battle, Germans have superior forces in Tunisia to USA. At least 6 divisions from Europe (OTL) plus Africa corp. Looks like stalemate.

April 1943 - Maybe 8th army becomes active. Maybe.


Summer 1943 - Looks like Germans have roughly equal forces to Allies in Tunisia. Looks like a stalemate. Am I missing something? Maybe some minor gains in Egypt for rebuilding 8th Army which has IMO worse logistics than Germans due simply to travel time for supplies.

Fall 1943. Pretty clear we are not doing the Italian campaign anywhere near OTL dates. D-Day is schedule in May 1944. Why not move best units to UK to attack on a shorter distance to Germany?

May 1944 - Luftwaffe is still gutted by bombing campaign.

June 1944 - D-Day still happens. Germany still loses in 1945. Maybe war lasts a few weeks or months longer. Now there can be some big post war impacts, but you need a full TL to discuss. The unconquered Italy is fascinating idea. UK never regaining Egypt but Egypt goes straight to independent is an interesting idea. All of Balkans go Red? Red Greece? Russian naval bases in eastern Med. So many interesting ideas for a TL.


I just see this front stalemating, and the war being won in France and in the east.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
I wouldn't have thought the Suez canal would have been much of a serious military obstacle, certainly not one of the scale of the English Channel or Sicilian Narrows, the Egyptians crossed easily enough in 1973 and so di the Israelis a fortnight later.. Sure its reasonable and defences would be set up on it if that's where the Germans wanted to hold, but its more like a river crossing that can be bridged and armies can be formed up in areas just out of reach of German airpower in the Delta.

It is not the canal that is the reason to setup the defenses. It has to do with the roads and RR network. Once you get east of the canal, you are supply by camel, or trucks over bad roads. Very limited water supplies. Up to the canal, you have good roads and RR network. It is a logical place to stop, and defend. And taking the Sinai gains you basically nothing of value.

And yes, the canal is so narrow, I would not be shocked if the Germans tried to fill in a short section (say 1/2 mile of it) to try to prevent any UK ships from slipping through even if they lost if for a few weeks.
 

Deleted member 1487

Blondie you're describing exactly what I was thinking. What was the airfield situation thought? I think a lot would come down to how much airpower the Allies could mass in Algeria to wear down the Axis in Tunisia. That and what naval forces they could project into the Central Meditarranean to interdict Axis supplies. A long attritional battle comes down to reserves and supplies, which the Allies have a better long term horizon on compared to the Axis even with Malta and no bombing of Italy. So we could end up seeing a bloodier version of what Italy turned into in Algeria/Tunisia, but with Italy staying onside with Hitler and Egypt eventually becoming a problem for the Axis in 1944.

0-Map-Tunisia-Tunisia-Campaign-1942-43-0A.jpg


the-race-for-tunis-11-17-november-1942.jpg
 
Yeah, the US and UK will concentrate on Algeria and North Africa because it's so much easier to supply, relative to Port Sudan. The Tunisia position will last longer than OTL without a serious threat from the east, but the forces available, and their ease of supply, will bleed the German strength much like OTL, particularly in the air.

There may be some disagreement about the actual value of trying to drive Germany out of Tunisia. After all, the Med can't be opened until Egypt is cleared. But Stalin will still be screaming for support, the value of combat experience is understood and every division stuck in North Africa is one that isn't in France when 1944 rolls around. The US and UK might be satisfied either way - Germany abandoning North Africa reopens the Med, while committing forces there is a diversion from the real war.
 
The last few posts beat me to part of what I was writing

Re: Tunisian Airfields

If they don't take them what happens?

They take them eventually. OTL The Germans had a lot of reserve formations to send to Tunisia Dec. Logically part of those would be the reinforcements to the Axis armies in Egypt. Of course the Brit 8th Army won't arrive in January to add its weight, so overall there will be fewer ground forces fighting over Tunisia.

The real difference might be in the air. The Desert AF added somewhat less to the battle over Tunisia, so its absence is liable to not reduce the Allied AF in NW Africa as greatly as the ground forces are. The primary problem in the air OTL for the Allies was the lack of substantial all weather airfields close to the battle. If the Germans have those along the Tunisian coast then the Allies must build their own. OTL it took them a bit over four months, part of which was spent rebuilding the rail & automotive roads. That can be reduced somewhat if there are fewer Axis aircraft in the region. It was the threat of air attack November - February that prevented the Allies from making much use of the coastal ports like Bone until spring.

Bottom line here, however anything else falls out once the Allies can place continual fighter plane cover over Tunisia & the straits its over for the Axis. As in OTL they can crowd over 3,000 war planes into NW Africa & interdict the Axis supplies to Tunisia. Maybe it happens sooner, maybe not, but it is inevitable.

The Allies may send reinforcements to the ME but the advantage or taking control of the Sicilian straits is fairly obvious. Brooke focused Allied strategy for early 1943 on that task. Its liable to play out that way even if 8th Army is parked somewhere east of Suez.
 
....

Summer 1943 - Looks like Germans have roughly equal forces to Allies in Tunisia. Looks like a stalemate. Am I missing something? Maybe some minor gains in Egypt for rebuilding 8th Army which has IMO worse logistics than Germans due simply to travel time for supplies.

....

I'd think the Allied air power is missing from this calculation. The air battle that winter & spring was more important than the ground battle& I'm thinking the Allies will have every advantage of OTL or even more.
 

Deleted member 1487

I'd think the Allied air power is missing from this calculation. The air battle that winter & spring was more important than the ground battle& I'm thinking the Allies will have every advantage of OTL or even more.
Well 8th army was pretty critical to the fighting. The air battles were a function of the supply issues caused by Malta and other allied naval efforts more than the Algerian air force. That and the use of limited Axis air power against the DAF, Malta, and to defend Sicily. ITTL there wouldn't be the need to do anything but concentrate air power to support Tunisia without any threat from Monty.

They take them eventually. OTL The Germans had a lot of reserve formations to send to Tunisia Dec. Logically part of those would be the reinforcements to the Axis armies in Egypt. Of course the Brit 8th Army won't arrive in January to add its weight, so overall there will be fewer ground forces fighting over Tunisia.

The real difference might be in the air. The Desert AF added somewhat less to the battle over Tunisia, so its absence is liable to not reduce the Allied AF in NW Africa as greatly as the ground forces are. The primary problem in the air OTL for the Allies was the lack of substantial all weather airfields close to the battle. If the Germans have those along the Tunisian coast then the Allies must build their own. OTL it took them a bit over four months, part of which was spent rebuilding the rail & automotive roads. That can be reduced somewhat if there are fewer Axis aircraft in the region. It was the threat of air attack November - February that prevented the Allies from making much use of the coastal ports like Bone until spring.

Bottom line here, however anything else falls out once the Allies can place continual fighter plane cover over Tunisia & the straits its over for the Axis. As in OTL they can crowd over 3,000 war planes into NW Africa & interdict the Axis supplies to Tunisia. Maybe it happens sooner, maybe not, but it is inevitable.

The Allies may send reinforcements to the ME but the advantage or taking control of the Sicilian straits is fairly obvious. Brooke focused Allied strategy for early 1943 on that task. Its liable to play out that way even if 8th Army is parked somewhere east of Suez.
I don't see how it follows that the forces used IOTL in Tunisia would be involved in Egypt, as they weren't necessary ITTL for the operations to win in Egypt and by November they were needed in Tunisia. So by December they are in Tunisia with the Afrika Korps filtering in. Except ITTL there isn't an 8th army doing a huge part of the heavy lifting fighting up from Libya. Plus now Tripoli can be used to help supply Tunisia.

Without Malta being a threat, which was a major part of the supply line interdiction, then a lot more Luftwaffe/RA forces can be sustained and kept flying in Tunisia/Pantelleria as needed. Also without Malta being a threat and no major combat until mid-1943 in Egypt all of the Mediterranean air power available can be used to support Tunisia, even what was defending Crete and part of what was used at Ploesti.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
I'd think the Allied air power is missing from this calculation. The air battle that winter & spring was more important than the ground battle& I'm thinking the Allies will have every advantage of OTL or even more.

I could easily be undervaluing the air power. I have never gone through the order of battle for both sides in North Africa month by month, so I could easily miss something.

But I think the bigger difference in our positions may be the assumptions. More specifically the assumptions about the POD. Early in the thread, there was a little bit about Malta falling, and other unspecificed minor things going right, then something bigger in October 1942. So from this I assume that a lot more of the Italian Merchant Marine is afloat than OTL in 1942. I tend to assume from the fall of Malta, the Royal Navy activity near Italy is lesser. I am trying to get a POD that is still recognizable as "Rommel has big success in Egypt in October 1942" but is as plausible as possible.

My feeling is that your POD is slightly different. So you get different results.

Now back to more specifics here. I am assuming a much bigger buildup of supplies in Tunisia than IOTL. I see much better/stronger German force than OTL in Tunisia, so I see the Allies being bounced back more in November 1942 and in the following winter. I see a stronger Italian Navy and more Italian merchant ships. And since the Axis are losing substantially fewer merchant ship in the 12-18 months before Torch, there are many benefits to supplies, air crew quality, and the like. Also, there is minor to no pressure from the 8th army. Due to whatever went so well in October 1942.

And for the last important issue. Strategic depth. IOTL, the Axis were trapped on two sides. Here, the will not be cutoff, but merely pushed into Libya.

So lets try another go at the TL. IOTL it was may 13th the Axis surrendered. So here, give the Axis only a 45 day improvement in performance. This means about July 1, the Axis forces are losing battles, and begin to retreat into Libya. Assuming they are not destroyed, it means that say the Axis have completed the retreat into Libya by August 1. The Allies are organized and supplied enough to think about attacking Sicily. Call it a September 1 invasion date is doable. And is this really the right date. A much better supplied Axis and larger Axis inflicts more losses on the Allied divisions. Do we have any/many Allied divisions going thru a rebuilding phase? Not sure. A lot would depend on how you saw each battle going. Maybe the Allies win quick wins. Maybe the have to beat there way thru some mountain passes. Maybe the equipment is in good repair. Maybe the Allies try to attack in multiple locations with long distance movement of men and equipment. Hard for me to say.

Now lets go to the big picture. The eastern med is shutdown. There is no supply benefit possible of running merchant ships in the Med Sea since the Eastern Med is Axis. You still have a large, but damaged Axis forces in Libya. It is not so clear to me that the USA does not decide to divert forces and supplies to support D-Day.

And here is the catch, say you do the Sicily attack. Move most of your forces out of Tunisia since Axis armor is running low on fuel. What is the big gain here?
 

Deleted member 1487

Just to be clear I said by October, it can be earlier, but Operation Pedestal was in August, so it would take a bit a time after it failing for Malta to surrender.
 
I could easily be undervaluing the air power. I have never gone through the order of battle for both sides in North Africa month by month, so I could easily miss something.

Wiking has talked before about the attrition suffered by the LW in the Med in 1942-1943. The forces that achieved that attrition are still mostly available and can be committed to Algeria if desired. It won't be as effective as OTL, but it'll still be attrition.

And I suspect they would be sent there. If we assume Torch as OTL, then Overlord is still almost two years away and the political drivers for the US to get involved are as strong as OTL, both the domestic ones and the need to divert German forces from Russia and, longer term, from France.
 

Fenlander

Banned
IIRC in his History of WWII Churchill describes making noises about arming the Jews of Palestine in response to any potential threat to Suez. In OTL the Camel Corps shot him down quickly, but it might be something to bear in mind.
 
IIRC in his History of WWII Churchill describes making noises about arming the Jews of Palestine in response to any potential threat to Suez. In OTL the Camel Corps shot him down quickly, but it might be something to bear in mind.

He does that, the Arabs will be up in arms, and the British forces in Palestine will be tied down and unable to advance on Egypt.
 
mini TL:

August 7th - Gott doesn't die; takes command of 8th army
August 15th - Op. Pedestal fails
August 29th - Malta surrenders
August 30th - Battle of Alam Halfa begins
September 13th - Battle of Alam Halfa ends
Initial*:
Allies - 500
Axis - 193 G ; 243 I

Losses**:
Allies - 500
Axis - 73 G; 93 I

Remaining:
Allies - 0
Axis - 120 G; 150 I

September 14th - Op. Agreement fails; Churchill orders Cunningham to act aggressively and deny the use of Tobruk to the Axis
September 15th - Rommel orders bridging equipment for use in Egypt; he also resumes the advance towards Alexandria and Cairo, splitting his force in half
September 16th - Rommel's request is granted
September 18th - bridging equipment arrives in Naples
September 19th - convoy carrying bridging equipment departs Naples for Tobruk
September 20th - convoy diverted to Benghazi due to RN presence; half lost
September 21st - Battle of Alexandria begins; port facilities at Alexandria sabotaged by British
September 26th - Battle of Cairo begins
October 1st - Battle of Alexandria ends
Initial:
Allies - 150
Axis - 60 G; 75 I

Losses:
Allies - 150
Axis - 23 G; 30 I

Remaining:
Allies - 0
Axis - 36 G; 45 I

October 2nd - bridging equipment arrives near Cairo
October 9th - Battle of Cairo ends
Initial:
Allies - 150
Axis - 60 G; 75 I

Losses:
Allies - 150
Axis - 23 G; 30 I

Remaining:
Allies - 0
Axis - 36 G; 45 I

October 10th - Rommel takes stock of his situation:
Axis tanks: 72 G; 90 I
Allied tanks: 0***

New arrivals between 10/10 and 11/11
Axis: 49 G; 60 I
Allies: 300

November 8th - Op. Torch begins; Ju-52s supplying Rommel relocated west
November 10th - first Axis units arrive in Tunis

November 11th - British begin counter-offensive in Egypt to pre-empt the opening up of Alexandria and to take advantage of enemy complete lack of fuel

balance of forces in Egypt:
Allies - 300****
Axis - 121 G; 150 I*****

November 19th - Soviets launch Op. Uranus
November 20th - Rommel orders a retreat out of Cairo
November 21st - Hitler countermands Rommel's order, demands army stays put and fights
November 22nd - Rommel ignores orders and retreats from Cairo; one Italian infantry division, lacking transport, is cut off
November 24th - Cairo fully re-taken
November 25th - Axis abandons last position on the Suez canal and retreats behind the Nile
November 26th - first and last Axis attempt to push a convoy into Alexandria; Cunningham is victorious, with both sides losing two BBs; the convoy is forced back
November 27th - Rommel begins secret preparations to abandon Alexandria
December 1st - Second Battle of Alexandria begins
December 10th - Allied attack into Tunisia stalls for good; new airfields being to be constructed near the front
December 11th - Second Battle of Alexandria ends
Initial:
Allies - 250
Axis - 50 G; 75 I

Losses:
Allies - 100
Axis - 30 G; 60 I

Remaining:
Allies - 150
Axis - 20 G; 15 I


Subsequent developments - Tunisia falls, probably faster than OTL due to less Ju52s as well as no Panzerarmee Afrika reinforcing von Armin at the end of their retreat; Tripoli is probably taken by the Americans from the west around March; 8th army stays put in Alexandria for another month until its brought up to reasonable strength; Tobruk falls to the Desert Rats in late February/early March; last Axis forces are evacuated from Benghazi and Misrata in late March




* - ignoring light tanks and armoured cars
** - I'll assume a 3:1 casualty ratio; i.e. Battle of Gazala - style performance for the Axis
*** - of course, if casualties vary by even as much as 10% in all the previous battles, he should actually be outnumbered even at this point despite lead-tea drinking Brits
**** - mostly Shermans
***** - this is being extremely generous, since their much longer supply lines would imply they get even less new machines to the front compared to OTL
 

Deleted member 1487

mini TL:

August 7th - Gott doesn't die; takes command of 8th army
August 15th - Op. Pedestal fails
August 29th - Malta surrenders
August 30th - Battle of Alam Halfa begins
September 13th - Battle of Alam Halfa ends
Initial*:
Allies - 500
Axis - 193 G ; 243 I

Losses**:
Allies - 500
Axis - 73 G; 93 I

Remaining:
Allies - 0
Axis - 120 G; 150 I

September 14th - Op. Agreement fails; Churchill orders Cunningham to act aggressively and deny the use of Tobruk to the Axis
September 15th - Rommel orders bridging equipment for use in Egypt; he also resumes the advance towards Alexandria and Cairo, splitting his force in half
September 16th - Rommel's request is granted
September 18th - bridging equipment arrives in Naples
September 19th - convoy carrying bridging equipment departs Naples for Tobruk
September 20th - convoy diverted to Benghazi due to RN presence; half lost
September 21st - Battle of Alexandria begins; port facilities at Alexandria sabotaged by British
September 26th - Battle of Cairo begins
October 1st - Battle of Alexandria ends
Initial:
Allies - 150
Axis - 60 G; 75 I

Losses:
Allies - 150
Axis - 23 G; 30 I

Remaining:
Allies - 0
Axis - 36 G; 45 I

October 2nd - bridging equipment arrives near Cairo
October 9th - Battle of Cairo ends
Initial:
Allies - 150
Axis - 60 G; 75 I

Losses:
Allies - 150
Axis - 23 G; 30 I

Remaining:
Allies - 0
Axis - 36 G; 45 I

October 10th - Rommel takes stock of his situation:
Axis tanks: 72 G; 90 I
Allied tanks: 0***

New arrivals between 10/10 and 11/11
Axis: 49 G; 60 I
Allies: 300

November 8th - Op. Torch begins; Ju-52s supplying Rommel relocated west
November 10th - first Axis units arrive in Tunis

November 11th - British begin counter-offensive in Egypt to pre-empt the opening up of Alexandria and to take advantage of enemy complete lack of fuel

balance of forces in Egypt:
Allies - 300****
Axis - 121 G; 150 I*****

November 19th - Soviets launch Op. Uranus
November 20th - Rommel orders a retreat out of Cairo
November 21st - Hitler countermands Rommel's order, demands army stays put and fights
November 22nd - Rommel ignores orders and retreats from Cairo; one Italian infantry division, lacking transport, is cut off
November 24th - Cairo fully re-taken
November 25th - Axis abandons last position on the Suez canal and retreats behind the Nile
November 26th - first and last Axis attempt to push a convoy into Alexandria; Cunningham is victorious, with both sides losing two BBs; the convoy is forced back
November 27th - Rommel begins secret preparations to abandon Alexandria
December 1st - Second Battle of Alexandria begins
December 10th - Allied attack into Tunisia stalls for good; new airfields being to be constructed near the front
December 11th - Second Battle of Alexandria ends
Initial:
Allies - 250
Axis - 50 G; 75 I

Losses:
Allies - 100
Axis - 30 G; 60 I

Remaining:
Allies - 150
Axis - 20 G; 15 I


Subsequent developments - Tunisia falls, probably faster than OTL due to less Ju52s as well as no Panzerarmee Afrika reinforcing von Armin at the end of their retreat; Tripoli is probably taken by the Americans from the west around March; 8th army stays put in Alexandria for another month until its brought up to reasonable strength; Tobruk falls to the Desert Rats in late February/early March; last Axis forces are evacuated from Benghazi and Misrata in late March




* - ignoring light tanks and armoured cars
** - I'll assume a 3:1 casualty ratio; i.e. Battle of Gazala - style performance for the Axis
*** - of course, if casualties vary by even as much as 10% in all the previous battles, he should actually be outnumbered even at this point despite lead-tea drinking Brits
**** - mostly Shermans
***** - this is being extremely generous, since their much longer supply lines would imply they get even less new machines to the front compared to OTL
Thanks for the TL, but I think you've got serious issues here based on the points that Blondie made before. The tanks wouldn't arrive and be put into action that quickly if 8th army was wiped out. You didn't allow the Axis forces to capture any supplies in Alexandria, which is certainly what would happen. I doubt they'd be able to wreck the port that quickly either and you haven't allowed for the capture of other ports. Also you can't get a convoy half destroyed by the British once Malta is gone, especially if headed for Benghazi. There wouldn't be a need for Ju52 supply to Rommel if he takes Alexandria simply due to supplies captured, plus British naval strength would be minimal once that port is lost even if they evacuate to Cyprus due to the lack of supplies and repair facilities there. In Tunisia things would bog down for months once the OTL blocking forces arrive, so that probably sees no real threat until Rommel arrives, while the threat to the Italians on the Suez is pretty minimal from the East or south given how long it would take to put together a new force from scratch once the 8th army is wiped out.
 
It's super late, so I'll respond to the rest tomorrow.

Anyway,

The tanks wouldn't arrive and be put into action that quickly if 8th army was wiped out.

They arrived OTL. Given the 47 day delay, it means they were already on their way as Alam Halfa was ongoing. There is no way for the Germans to stop them getting to Egypt.

You didn't allow the Axis forces to capture any supplies in Alexandria
How do you think Rommel got around, despite adding another 350km's to the length of his supply lines, and despite his OTL fuel reserve being mostly eaten up just driving to the outskirt of Alexandria?
 

Deleted member 1487

It's super late, so I'll respond to the rest tomorrow.

Anyway,



They arrived OTL. Given the 47 day delay, it means they were already on their way as Alam Halfa was ongoing. There is no way for the Germans to stop them getting to Egypt.


How do you think Rommel got around, despite adding another 350km's to the length of his supply lines, and despite his OTL fuel reserve being mostly eaten up just driving to the outskirt of Alexandria?
Capturing supplies from the 8th army they defeated in combat like he did repeatedly, then capturing nearly unlimited supplies in the city given his needs.
 
Capturing supplies from the 8th army they defeated in combat like he did repeatedly, then capturing nearly unlimited supplies in the city given his needs.

Not just the food and water, but a very large anti-British young male population in the city he would most certainly start to utilize for defenses.
 

Deleted member 1487

Not just the food and water, but a very large anti-British young male population in the city he would most certainly start to utilize for defenses.
Plus I'm sure there would be a lot of weaponry floating around from British stocks and the police. The Egyptians had their own army too:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kingdom_of_Egypt#World_War_II_and_after
Following a ministerial crisis in February 1942, the British government, through its ambassador in Egypt, Sir Miles Lampson, pressed Farouk to have a Wafd or Wafd-coalition government replace Hussein Sirri Pasha's government. On the night of 4 February 1942, British troops and tanks surrounded Abdeen Palace in Cairo and Lampson presented Farouk with an ultimatum. Farouk capitulated, and Nahhas formed a government shortly thereafter. However, the humiliation meted out to Farouk, and the actions of the Wafd in cooperating with the British and taking power, lost support for both the British and the Wafd among both civilians and, more importantly, the Egyptian military.
 
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