Allied/Neutral Romania in WWII

Some speculation in the Moldova chat thread:
Stalin wasn’t really that kind, he was very cautious about invading other polities unless he could be absolutely sure of no real repercussions.

If the Nazis hadn’t been a thing the butterflies for Romania are vast. Critically, the Romanian government before Antonescu was very Francophile and had a good relationship with France and other countries. If Hitler hadn’t agreed with Stalin to carve off their territory and the fall of France hadn’t badly undermined the original government’s position they would still be in control. In that case, there would be very definite repercussions for invading Romania. That would keep Stalin at bay.

A post ww2 western allied Romania has massive butterflies for the whole Balkans too. A Yugoslavia that includes Bulgaria might be the result or perhaps some Balkan miniUSSR!

There is absolutely no chance of Yugoslavia including Bulgaria without Bulgaria being a Communist country and that is not going to happen if Romania is Western allied.

I was only speculating but why not?

Because any Bulgarian government that is not led by Stalinist stooges would demand as nonnegotiable conditions for joining Yugoslavia an equal position within Yugoslavia and Macedonia to be given to Bulgaria. And neither the Monarchical or Communist Yugoslavia would accept such conditions.

Well, I was assuming Bulgaria still went communist and was influenced by Stalinist policies when I said it might be included.
Of course there are all manner of other possibilities such as a Nazi influenced Bulgarian invasion of Romania in WW2 and thus the Red Army still enters Romania anyway etc etc.

How can Bulgaria become Communist if Romania is not occupied by the Soviets?

I assume as a Nazi Ally it would still be invaded via the Black Sea coast and a USSR friendly government installed.

So, without altering WWII immensely what are the results of Romania either neutral or one of the Allies?
Does Bulgaria still go communist?
What happens to Moldova/Bessarabia/Transnistria?
Impact on the Balkans as a whole?
 
Well no fall of France and Romania has huge chance to stay neutral. They were pretty much from September to May 1940. Even more pro ally as neutrl I would say. They turned blind eye and allowed evacuation of Polish military personnel to France as well as Polish gold reserves were evacuated through Romania to England.
 
Not a lot changes. There is absolutely no scenario in which Romania stays neutral or joins the Allies in which it is not quickly invaded from all sides. Bulgaria will go in from the south, annexing even more of Dobruja than they did historically, Hungary, without being held back by Germany in the Second Vienna Award takes even more of Transylvania and the Soviets might also go with the flow and grab the entirety of Moldova.

Best case scenario is rump-Romania going back to the 1912 border + southern Bukovina and is occupied by Germany, while the Germans look for a way to install a friendly government, which will probably not happen as no interwar politician or general will ever accept such a humiliation. Worst case, Romania is reduced to Wallachia proper and is occupied by Germany.

As for the end of the war, the speculation that this could lead to an outcome where Romania does not get a soviet-friendly government is completely implausible. Remember Poland was also Western-Allied and guaranteed by the Allies and this did not stop Stalin from literally moving the country westwards and installing a communist party in charge. Borders will most likely be set in their OTL 1945 form (without Western Moldova, if we're being pessimistic), and if we're especially lucky we might get Southern Dobruja back, as Romania will not have the stigma of having participated fully in the German invasion of the USSR and might get some more sympathy.

The war will go worse for the Germans, who will have lost an important source of manpower, not to mention the Ploiești Oil installations that will most likely be destroyed by the Romanian Government before the invasion. The effort to rebuild them could weaken the Nazi war machine enough to give the Soviets an even earlier and more comprehensive win.
 
Sounds reasonable to me.
War was declared for a large reason because there were German troops right next to the Soviet troops in Romania. This is not going to be the case here.
I think a lot depends on what Bulgaria does. If it invades Romania then it will get invaded itself.
If it doesn't then the Soviets would still be sponsoring communist parties as it did it Yugoslavia.
Of course Bulgaria is also a prime location for anti-communist parties sponsored by the U.S..
 
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