I didn't say they'd last long or be very effective. I simply noted that they would in fact put up rather more of a fight than people seem to think. The Allies won't have a Russo-German 1918 war of "marching unstopped between villages."
Yeah, even if the Japanese civilian population is assumed to be apathetic, there are too many soldiers (for a given definition of soldiers) - the very least that can be expected is several months of very intense fighting.
Not necessarily oceans and oceans of blood, but assuming that the Japanese fight to the end at least as much as Lee did...yeah.
Lee being picked on as an example of someone not specifically aiming to fight to the death but sure acting like it.
Hkelukka said:
I never said its absolute.
I said it is absolute enough in many enough people to effectively force the others to comply. Soviet Commisar style. When the guys with the guns tell you to charge at the enemy with a knife in hand or they kill your family, you generally do it. And since as a rule the military police and special units are always best fed and equipped anyone refusing would be beheaded on the spot.
You dont charge the enemy when told, you get executed, simple and very Bushido. I would be willing to concede that 70% of the people in the Japanese civilian forces would not fight at all or surrender at first contact and only 30% would fight, that would be 10 million militia soldiers.
And where does one get the commissars, in absence of a better term, to make that many people fight? That's a lot of people to keep in line (in multiple senses).
Most Japanese probably wouldnt believe the emperor is divine, but a sufficiently high number would to make it a good PR point, not to mention the fact that even if he is not divine then turning your back on someone you, your family and ancestors have served in some capacity for over 1000 years would be very difficult at this point.
Refusing to fight and turning your back on the emperor are not the same thing unless he's commanding that one fight. "Serving the emperor in some capacity" does not translate into a form of military service.
To illustrate my point:
Total Killed/missing Wounded Captured
6,300,000 1,326,076 85,600 30,000
Thats the total WW2 statistics of Japanese losses. I stand by my statement that anywhere between 5-25 million Japanese would fight to the bitter end, costing the invasion army about 1.5-4+ million dead.
What happened to the 75% or so not killed (or missing)/wounded/captured? Seems kind of low for military forces fighting to the death to have only 20% or so killed. Not saying that means they didn't, just that a lot of these guys are not ending up as casualties on that table for some reason, which is interesting.
And why are we assuming that because the
military fought like this that there will be another 5-25 million
civilians who are not trained and indoctrinated the way the military was (above and beyond the usual social stuff, in other words) who will?
Fight? Sure. I can believe that the average
Volksturm level unit will fight. And be overrun. And surrender, because the people most fanatically devoted are going to be the first to get killed. So unless the average member of one of these units - using the German term because the PCFC is something I can't say without thinking of names like Six Black Swans Lake, and other fun to say oddities.
The Patriotic Citizens Fighting Corps is not funny stuff, even in a very dark sense of funny.
Back on topic and much more doubtfully:
Why is it assumed that the Japanese will inflict so many casualties? Schoolgirls with awls are...well, pushing the limits of "its not the weapon, its the wielder". Even matchlock muskets aren't that much better.