Allied invasion of France in 1943...what becomes of Italy?

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They basically did anyway; by Spring 1943 75% of single engine fighters were outside of the Eastern Front, while even during the 'surge' during Kursk it was still ~65% of single engine fighters outside of the East. Twin engine fighters were 90% outside the East. Plus from November 1942 when Torch happened through May 1943 the Luftwaffe lost about 2400 aircraft fighting for Tunisia, then several hundred more fighting for Sicily. IIRC the Luftwaffe had committed and lost/fielded about 4000 aircraft just for Tunisia and Sicily between November 1942-August 1943. That isn't counting what was in the East or in Germany/Western Europe. So without Torch and pulling the Luftwaffe out of the Mediterranean the Luftwaffe could field an additional 4-5000 aircraft by Summer 1943 in Western Europe. Discounting transports, recon, and other non-combat aircraft, we are still looking at probably 3000 combat aircraft in addition to what was there IOTL as of Summer 1943....but so too do the Allies then have their Torch/Husky forces and potential draw downs of RAF combat aircraft from the Mediterranean to use in France. On the balance the Germans save a ton more, as losses were really lopsided in Tunisia due to the Axis supply situation and how many aircraft were lost when airfield were overrun on the ground in Spring 1943.

If Torch does not happen then the 8th Army simply keeps rolling West - it would take longer but the end result would be the same.

And while the Germans may be far better able to place aircraft in France vs North Africa - the same is true for the allies basing aircraft in the south of England except at a much higher magnitude.
 
german u boats could make that interesting along with whats left of the Luftwaffe. gratned Germany has most things tied up in the east, but its no slouch in france, depends on where they invade
How?

The Kreigsmarine struggled to get U-boats past Gibraltar and into the Med
 
How?

The Kreigsmarine struggled to get U-boats past Gibraltar and into the Med
they still got some, and its 43, you're the germans what do you do to stop the onslaught. throw what you have at it or else fold tent and go home.

the germans can ill afford two/three fronts in 43 so stopping it at the beach and sea is really the only option
 
They can't stop it at the sea though. What is one U boat gonna do Torpedo a battleship? A troop transport? Because its only gonna get a handful before its sunk. The luft waffe is gonna be the same if a handful of JU 87s break through. its a waste bombing the combat ships and going after the troops transports isn't gonna make much of a difference
 
.. through. its a waste bombing the combat ships and going after the troops transports isn't gonna make much of a difference

The first day of Op HUSKY a Allied ammunition ship was sunk in a spectacular explosion. Another was despatched from Algeria ahead of schedule to replace the loss.
 
If it's left alone, but the Allies bear down on Germany, Italy definitely switches sides. It might even be by hand of Mussolini himself - who, in the last months before the Armistice, had been pressured to surrender to the Allies, had even requested to meet Hitler in order to tell him directly... but then chickened out, probably intimidated by Hitler expecting something of the sort.

My thought as well. Perhaps a few months later than OTL. Italy's economy was collapsing & the Communists organising. The wealthy who had tolerated or supported Mussolini were rethinking their options, the Facist Party ranks were disillusioned.

Once sufficient French port capacity is had all or part of the amphibious fleet can be moved to the Med and operations started there to prepare the way for invading Italy, southern France, ect...
 
There is going to be much wait and see going on with Germany's allies and neutrals like Spain, Turkey, etc...

Once the Allies take Paris that will be a signal moment obvious to all to settle their accounts with the ultimate victors and make peace. But 1943 France won't be like 1944. The Allies could be stuck in their lodgment for a long time.

But if Paris falls in October 1943, it will be like August 1944, everyone is getting out, Mussolini will probably be deposed, but unlike OTL, he doesn't ignore the results and knock on the kings door, he flies to Spain while he still has a chance.
 
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