Indeed. The RAF might have been forced to devote serious numbers of aircraft to Coastal Command, rather then harassment raids against Germany.
I have read repeatedly in other posts that Axis forces were royally out produced by the allies, and greater strength at sea would have very little impact over the land-war for Germany with the Soviet Union. They could never match the allies in material, and the disparity would have significant implications in the Axis powers abilities to replace their losses due attrition that years of warfare will no doubt generate.
At the very best, they would start off stronger, hold the offensive longer, and than fight an even more stubborn defensive war against the allies. They would be ground slowly and polished overtime, if allied determination is unabated.
In my opinion, they might get a conditional surrender at the most. Germany might get a negotiated ceasefire with the west, but even that seems too optimistic to me.
Also, lets not forget a little known project called "Manhattan." Berlin and some other German cities might end up self lighting glassed parking lots. However, to be fair, when the two atomic bombs were dropped on Japan, imperial forces didn't have much left to defend and retaliate in kind. If the situation was that enough of the Axis air defenses and interceptors were still strong and operational, a similar mission would be disastrous without first dealing with fighter interceptors ahead of time.
With much respect. Thank you