All Quiet on The Eastern Front?

What if the Provisional Government sought an immediate and separate peace after the February Revolution of 1917?

Is it realistic? Difficult to see, but possible? Difficult and unlikely? ASB?

If they did, what could they have salvaged from that peace and how far could an immediate cease fire, followed shortly after by an armistice potentially go to strengthen the public confidence in the Provisional Government?

Pardon me if there's other threads on this, but the search function doesn't want to cooperate with me at the moment.
 

Hnau

Banned
You'd have to change the composition of the Provisional Government. They were pretty gung-ho about continuing the war.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
Sometime between the first and second revolution, the Germans offered a peace treaty which basically made the front lines the new border. The harsher B-L terms came after the Central Powers had to do a major attack to get the Soviets out of the war.

For the provisional government, it is certainly a wise move, but wisdom could be hard to find in the Russian government. So I would rate as difficult. Basically, Russia would be looking at an German dominated Poland and Lithuania, or better than they ended up in OTL and no civil war to boot.

Are you just asking about the east, or are you also curious on the West?
 
You'd have to change the composition of the Provisional Government. They were pretty gung-ho about continuing the war.

Okay. Who's presence within the Provisional Government would bolster the chances of an immediate cease fire and quick peace?

More German troops on the Western Front before the Americans arrive.

In time for a major offensive? If they get there before the AEF does and there's a plan, could the Germans, if they get an immediate ceasefire in February and then a separate peace by the end of March, how many and how fast can they get there and could they be enough for a war ending offensive in late Spring/early Summer 1917?

Sometime between the first and second revolution, the Germans offered a peace treaty which basically made the front lines the new border. The harsher B-L terms came after the Central Powers had to do a major attack to get the Soviets out of the war.

For the provisional government, it is certainly a wise move, but wisdom could be hard to find in the Russian government. So I would rate as difficult. Basically, Russia would be looking at an German dominated Poland and Lithuania, or better than they ended up in OTL and no civil war to boot.

Are you just asking about the east, or are you also curious on the West?

What I'm trying to focus on here is an immediate cease fire after the February Revolution succeeds and quick peace between Russia and Germany by the end of March, early April at the latest, 1917.

I'm curious about Russia itself as the primary concern, but also very interested in what possible effects it would or could have on the western front as well.

Many people make threads about Weimar Germany surviving. I rarely (if ever) see anyone post thoughts on the February Revolution succeeding in Russia, that manages to peel away enough support from the Petrograd Soviet to marginalize it and the Bolsheviks, which I think would have an even more profound impact on the 20th century than a surviving Weimar.

Think of it as killing two, possibly three of the worst birds of the 20th century (Stalin, Hitler, Mao) with one stone.

Back to the western front though, could Germany absorb rump Poland and the Baltic states (which sounds like a sane limit to German territorial acquisition on the eastern front, B-L was too late and more land than they could absorb in a time when they were locked in to a lost war) and still have enough troops for a major, war ending offensive on the western front by summer 1917?
 
Many people make threads about Weimar Germany surviving. I rarely (if ever) see anyone post thoughts on the February Revolution succeeding in Russia, that manages to peel away enough support from the Petrograd Soviet to marginalize it and the Bolsheviks, which I think would have an even more profound impact on the 20th century than a surviving Weimar.

You're right, the only place I've seen this is as part of the alternate history mod for Hearts of Iron (Kaiserreich), where Germany wins WWI and props up the Whites under Kerensky. It would be a fun timeline to just look at the changes to Russia without all the other weird stuff Kaiserreich puts in.
 
You're right, the only place I've seen this is as part of the alternate history mod for Hearts of Iron (Kaiserreich), where Germany wins WWI and props up the Whites under Kerensky. It would be a fun timeline to just look at the changes to Russia without all the other weird stuff Kaiserreich puts in.

You should play All The Russias. It's KR's predecessor and literally is just the Russian changes. The rest of the world remains the same.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
In time for a major offensive? If they get there before the AEF does and there's a plan, could the Germans, if they get an immediate ceasefire in February and then a separate peace by the end of March, how many and how fast can they get there and could they be enough for a war ending offensive in late Spring/early Summer 1917?

What I'm trying to focus on here is an immediate cease fire after the February Revolution succeeds and quick peace between Russia and Germany by the end of March, early April at the latest, 1917.

I'm curious about Russia itself as the primary concern, but also very interested in what possible effects it would or could have on the western front as well.

Many people make threads about Weimar Germany surviving. I rarely (if ever) see anyone post thoughts on the February Revolution succeeding in Russia, that manages to peel away enough support from the Petrograd Soviet to marginalize it and the Bolsheviks, which I think would have an even more profound impact on the 20th century than a surviving Weimar.

Think of it as killing two, possibly three of the worst birds of the 20th century (Stalin, Hitler, Mao) with one stone.

Back to the western front though, could Germany absorb rump Poland and the Baltic states (which sounds like a sane limit to German territorial acquisition on the eastern front, B-L was too late and more land than they could absorb in a time when they were locked in to a lost war) and still have enough troops for a major, war ending offensive on the western front by summer 1917?

Late May 1917, easy, if late March peace. Falkenhayn decided to move east in 1915 fairly late, seem like after March 22, 1915, and he was doing a multi-army attack in May 1915. Now they might decide to go bit slower and do a larger attack, but a Summer 1915 offensive is a given, just how big, and where. My bet is something that looks like 1918, but in 1917. And yes, without American reserves, it is a bigger breakthrough.

Yes, Russia Feb revolution could survive the same way the Tsar could have survived, make peace. But neither was willing too, as should be remember the same for the Communist. They did not sign a treaty until a five prong attack hand broken out into Russia and one column was with 150 miles of the capital. The Russians expected the USA to win the war, and to save them from the Germans (yes, oversimplification)

To get the Feb Revolution to make peace, you need the USA not to enter the war, and not look like it is entering the war. It is the easiest way, but people who write the "USA not entering the war" TL are more likely interested in USA, not Russia History.

Remember, we don't know who the will the the bad guys in the new world. It is easy to write a TL where WWII happens, but in the 1960's with a full nuclear exchange. Or a TL where an beaten UK spends the 1920's and 1930's working on biological weapons, and opens WW1, part 2 with a biological attack. And unfortunately for the UK, the vaccine for the weaponized agent X works when made in the lab, but fails in due to quality concerns when mass produced for war. Or put another way, if you write a POD where peace is made in late 1916, Hitler has an important life somewhere. How do you know that the guy who would lead Russia in the 1920's was just not as evil?

The early peace offer to Russia was basically cease fire in place, so only Poland and Lithuania, and likely Finland. And Poland would have been a long term headache for Germany and A-H if it survives.
 
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