All-Out Iran vs. Taliban War in 1998?

CaliGuy

Banned
Pakistan would either significantly increase its financial and military support for the Taliban or even get directly involved in this war by sending some of its own troops to help the Taliban.
 
Iran would do better than the NATO Coalition because they understand the topography, Afghan politics. Western Afghanis speak a Persian dialect and Persia/Iran has been meddling in Afghan politics for thousands of years.

The one disadvantage is that most Iranians/Persians are Shiite, while most Afghan tribes are Suuni, especially Pashtuns who are the largest ethnic group in Afghanistan and provide the foundation for the Taliban. IOW Taliban ideals are so close to Pashtun traditions that they are almost indistinguishable.
 
Iran's conventional forces aren't the best in the region and I'm not sure how well they'd fare at least at first.

Also what are the Iranians goals here? Wrest away some cities? Give the taliban a good beating? Or actually overthrow the Taliban government?

The first is hard but shouldn't be too hard, the middle is easiest, and the last is the hardest and will result in the Iranians fighting a long insurgency themselves or pulling out once the body count gets too high.

If the Iranians do push far enough Pakistan may intervene probably citing "strategic interests" and the Pakistani armed forces are far superior to the Iranian ones. But I'd love to see Pakistani commandos against IRGC troops.
 
A third alternative is for Iran to play the Pakistani version of the Great Game by arming several Western tribes. Western tribes continue their centuries-old feuds against Pashtuns.
Western tribes gain a bit of ground, but not all of Afghanistan. This creates a buffer zone along the Iranian - Afghan border. A buffer zone satisfies Iranian ambitions.
 
I'm not sure if that would be enough, there were murdered Iranian diplomats. I think both the government and population of Iran would demand harsher retaliation.
 
Would and Could Saddam have another go at an Iran-Iraq war while Iran is in Afghanistan

No way. Iraq at the time had had it's military devastated by the Gulf War and was under strict UN sanctions which prevented it from rebuilding it's military and which were strangling the Iraqi economy. The was literally a humanitarian disaster in Iraq at the time. Large sectors of airspace over northern and southern Iraq were also patrolled by Coalition aircraft as no-fly zones to Iraqi warplanes. Any Iraqi invasion would be a pathetic joke.
 
In October 1998, oil was hovering around $10 a barrel. I would have the be convinced that the Iranian budget could support any sustained operations with oil at these prices.

Related, this was the peak of the Asian Financial crisis and Long-Term Capital. A sudden spike in oil prices could devastate the global economy that is barely holding on. And it might be enough for the US to roll over into a major recession like Asia.
 
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