Mexico will probably become Americanized by 1900 or so, after all California and Texas were Americanized by 1870. When the American Civil War brakes out (supposing it does happen on schedule) the Mexicans will probably be territories and mostly support the Union in order to get statehood. As a result the Civil War with a large Mexican army will probably end a year or two earlier. Of course this will not mean all of Mexico will be pro-Union. Many Mexicans especially the landowning class that controls the peonage system will support the Confederates. Quite possibly you might see a Mexican Confederate cabinet member. On the third side you'll see a strong Mexican secessionist/independence movement although no doubt even if they succeed get crushed after the Civil War. Once the Civil War ends there will be strong pressure for statehood. I suppose statehood will happen slowly but the process should be complete by 1900 or so. The Mexican states will probably support the Democrats in the 1890s and the 1900s or possibly the Populists as a result of the free silver issue: Mexico is full of silver mines. If the Mexicans are strongly Populist the latter party may become a major party or throw the election to the House. As for language English will be taught and most of the Mexican states will be English speaking three quarters of a century after it's conquest. Spanish will survive of course but will be a minority language but on the other hand American English will be heavily Spanish-influenced widening the divide between American and British English. Other then Baja, Sonora, Chiahuahua, and Coahuila most of Mexico will remain "Spanish/Hispanic". Mexico City especially will become the Second City of the United States and the Spanish cultural capital. Veracruz will probably be more white although it will still have a Hispanic majority. With Mexico far more prosperous up until 1980 or so birth rates will be higher and perhaps to today if Mexicans ally enough to form a social conservative coalition. Certainly abortion will not be legal and birth control will be heavily restricted.
Mexico will probably become Americanized by 1900 or so, after all California and Texas were Americanized by 1870.
Soviet spies supporting radical Mexican independence movements?
YOU'RE KILLING THE BUTTERFLIES!!!I wonder how this will effect the Cold War. Soviet spies supporting radical Mexican independence movements?
YOU'RE KILLING THE BUTTERFLIES!!!
Mexico will probably become Americanized by 1900 or so, after all California and Texas were Americanized by 1870. When the American Civil War brakes out (supposing it does happen on schedule) the Mexicans will probably be territories and mostly support the Union in order to get statehood. As a result the Civil War with a large Mexican army will probably end a year or two earlier. Of course this will not mean all of Mexico will be pro-Union. Many Mexicans especially the landowning class that controls the peonage system will support the Confederates. Quite possibly you might see a Mexican Confederate cabinet member. On the third side you'll see a strong Mexican secessionist/independence movement although no doubt even if they succeed get crushed after the Civil War. Once the Civil War ends there will be strong pressure for statehood. I suppose statehood will happen slowly but the process should be complete by 1900 or so. The Mexican states will probably support the Democrats in the 1890s and the 1900s or possibly the Populists as a result of the free silver issue: Mexico is full of silver mines. If the Mexicans are strongly Populist the latter party may become a major party or throw the election to the House. As for language English will be taught and most of the Mexican states will be English speaking three quarters of a century after it's conquest. Spanish will survive of course but will be a minority language but on the other hand American English will be heavily Spanish-influenced widening the divide between American and British English. Other then Baja, Sonora, Chiahuahua, and Coahuila most of Mexico will remain "Spanish/Hispanic". Mexico City especially will become the Second City of the United States and the Spanish cultural capital. Veracruz will probably be more white although it will still have a Hispanic majority. With Mexico far more prosperous up until 1980 or so birth rates will be higher and perhaps to today if Mexicans ally enough to form a social conservative coalition. Certainly abortion will not be legal and birth control will be heavily restricted.
I actually agree with most of what you say, except for what's bolded. A few things I could add to your arguments: The Populists began and were strongest in Texas and both TX and New Mexico had many Mexican Populist groups. Also Sonora IOTL is the most Americanized of all Mexican states.
A lot depends on how you measure it but IOTL Texas was most certainly not Americanized by 1870 or it would never have joined the Confederate insurgency.
Taking just a few examples:
Both Spanish and German were widely spoken as first languages, German up til the anti German hysteria of WWI, Spanish up to the present day.
Most Mexicans in Texas did not consider themselves Americans until at least the 1920s. In my grandpa's time it was still common for Mexicans and Indians to refer to whites alone as "Americans."
There were failed uprisings by Mexicans in Texas in the 1870s and 1910s.
What I'd expect in TTL is that the US would become not only far more Mexicanized but also Indianized. At the time of Mexico's independence only 1/3 of the population spoke Spanish as a first language. MX's govt had a far harsher and more successful assimilation policy than colonial Spain.
If only 1/3 of the Mexican population use Spanish as their first language, assuming by 1848 it is up to about 1/2, that actually makes it much easier deposit English into Mexico as the primary language, at least much more so than if Spanish was around 90 % 1st tongue rates.
There is also the question if Standard US Indian policy will apply in an Indian Majority country.
While the Spanish speaking urban Indians might be more or less left alone, I'm not quite sure how things go with the non Spanish speaking ones.
Do we see an apartheid with the Urban and white Mexicans being defined "Mexicans" and a large rural population defined as "Indians" with all the policies that comes with at the time.
I can't imagine the Mayans not resisting the Americans as they did the Mexicans after Yucatan rejoined them, and if the US tries to put them on reservations it can only get worse. Also, annexation by the slave-holding USA might increase Mayan paranoia and drive them to war even further. OTL a bunch of US Marines did actually end up fighting the Mayan rebels, and by all accounts they failed spectacularly. The only good thing anyone could say about the Marines' performance was that they were brave. Beyond that, they were just plain dumb. The insurgencies in the Yucatan would be a major, major problem. Even OTL they were the main reason we did not take Yucatan up on its offer to annex them.Imagine the Yucatan with a number of reservations (or even one big one the size of the Navajo rez) done to stave off the War of the Castas. (I doubt the US would recognize the Republic of Yucatan's claim of independence, or elites may join the US much like they rejoined Mexico IOTL).