All Aboard

Inspired by the several threads going around about the potential for the US to develop a substantial inter-city rail network, I thought I'd try to create a semi-plausible timeline in which that happens:

Our story begins on June 17, 1972. Security guard Frank Wills is patrolling the Watergate Complex when he notices tape covering the latch on one of the doors. He removes the tape and continues on his rounds. When he returns 30 minutes later, he doesn't check to see if the tape has been replaced, as he has no reason to believe that there is anyone else in the building. The next day, one of the staffers at the Democratic National Committee thinks that the papers in their office have been moved overnight, but Wills reports that he saw nothing suspicious.

One year and four months later, President Richard Nixon has weathered the resignation of Vice President Agnew and is riding high in the polls as Vietnam finally seems to be settling into a stable peace, but the Arab oil embargo threatens another recession. Nixon huddles with his advisors and comes up with a plan that will cut the United States' dependency on foreign oil. Deputy Treasury Secretary William E. Simon will serve as the nation's first Secretary of Energy, responsible for overseeing a system of gasoline rationing in the short term and overseeing the construction of new nuclear power plants to replace existing oil-fired plants. At the same time, Nixon reluctantly admits that the Amtrak system he had hoped to use for a quiet sunset of passenger rail service will be necessary to reduce the need for automotive transport. Congress authorizes Amtrak to acquire the assets of the near-bankrupt Penn Central and Eerie Lackawanna Railways, instantly creating a publicly-owned rail network stretching from Boston to Chicago and south to St. Louis. In addition to freight and the legacy inter-city passenger rail lines, the network allows local and state governments to set up commuter lines using its rights-of-way. These lines connect inflation-weary suburbanites to the new Metro systems being built in Washington DC and Baltimore, as well as existing networks in New York, Chicago, Boston, Philadelphia, and Cleveland. The Energy Department begins electrifying the tracks to create an improved power grid connecting proposed nuclear plants in the northeast to major urban centers.
 
Chapter 2

Nixon's rail initiatives were not enough to secure another victory for the Republican Party in 1976. After a bitter primary, insurgent candidate Ronald Reagan defeated Vice President Ford at the convention. Reagan's policies were well to the right of Nixon's and, it would appear, the nation's.

The Democrats nominated Maine senator Ed Muskie. Muskie ran on the strongest environmental platform in history. After taking office with 275 Electoral College votes, he immediately set about implementing it. The CAFE standards signed by Nixon were enhanced, and new national parks were established across the Dakotas, Alaska, Florida, and Arizona. Congress balked at Muskie's proposal for a gas tax increase, but did provide massive funding for transit. New subway systems were constructed in Minneapolis, Seattle, Los Angeles, and Detroit, with system expansions in Washington, Philadelphia, Baltimore, and Cleveland.

Muskie's plans for intercity rail are just as ambitious. New trainsets with a top speed of 125 miles per hour are ordered to replace the sets Amtrak had inherited from the railways, while Amtrak continues to purchase tracks from the faltering freight railroads. The purchase of the Chicago, Milwaukee, St. Paul and Pacific Railroad extends Amtrak's track network to the West Coast, permitting daily service between Chicago and Seattle. In partnership with California Governor Jerry Brown, Amtrak begins building its first new tracks, a line connecting San Francisco and Los Angeles through the Central Valley of California. This line will also connect California's major cities to a series of solar power stations, and carry water from the northern California reservoirs to parched southern California.
 
Chapter 3

Supporting mass transit turns out to be a poor political decision for President Muskie. Intercity Amtrak trains require heavy federal subsidies, and construction on new metro systems is best by delays and cost overruns, fueling widespread rumors of corruption. These rumors turn out to be true for Cleveland and Philadelphia, leading to the indictment of Philadelphia mayor Frank Rizzo. The political backlash is exacerbated by the regional nature of the existing rail system. Outside the areas where Amtrak owns track (the former Penn Central and Eerie Lackawanna Railways in the Northeast and Great Lakes and the Chicago, Milwaukee, St. Paul and Pacific Railroad extending into the Upper Midwest, with a single line to Seattle), service is limited to a few legacy lines, with slow trains that are frequently delayed due to scheduling conflicts with the freight railroads that own the tracks. Voters in the South and West (except for Washington State) derive no personal benefit from Amtrak or the metro systems, and see it as a transfer of their tax dollars to blighted urban centers. The purchase of the Chicago, Rock Island, and Pacific Railroad in 1978 will expand the system south to Texas and Louisiana, and east to Denver, but regular train service won't be in place by election day on 1980.

In Texas, Governor George Bush spies an opportunity. After the legislature adjourns in June. Governor Bush announces his candidacy for President of the United States. He travels to Iowa and New Hampshire with an attack on the Muskie administration's wasteful spending. As Bush's poll numbers rise, Muskie's sink amidst a second energy crisis brought on by the collapse of the Pahlavi regime in Iran, which quickly assumes an anti-American stance under the Ayatollah Khomeini, forcing the hasty and rather embarassing evacuation of the US embassy. Muskie reacts by implementing essentially the same policies as Nixon did in 1974, with gasoline rationing and increased investments in mass transit. These investments included funding for the completion of the Los Angeles - San Francisco line, which would have a top speed of 200 miles an hour when completed, track improvements on existing Amtrak lines, and several expansions of metro systems. With support for nuclear power fading after the Three Mile Island Incident, Energy Secretary Carter's plans for new electricity generation focus on solar and geothermal power, and the government begins plans to expand the California rail network to Phoenix and eventually Denver via Las Vegas.

However, these plans are put on hold by the election of 1980, in which George Bush triumphs over President Muskie with 310 Electoral College votes. At the same time, Republicans take a two-seat margin in the House of Representatives and a three-seat majority in the Senate, gaining control of Congress for the first time since 1953. Bush announces an austerity budget intended to keep the deficit under $100 billion. It includes the cancellation of additional rail service on the former Rock Island Line, as well as under-used regional lines in New England and the Midwest. At the same time, Bush implements a new energy policy focused on increased domestic production, with Interior Secretary Lujan permitting new offshore oil wells off the coast of California and continued federal support for the Synthetic Fuels Corporation. The cancellations of existing rail lines spark a major backlash, and combined with the early-1980s recession, sweep the Democrats back into control of the House of Representatives. The 1983 budget includes a record deficit of $128 billion, largely from increases in defense spending agreed to by both parties. Ironically, the deficits forced on President Bush by House Democrats probably help to secure his reelection amid the growing economy of 1984.

Bush's reelection means another rough four years for Amtrak. Although Democrats remain in control of the House, Republicans in the Senate block increased transportation funding. Amtrak is forced to eliminate its subsidy for freight rail completely, and raise ticket prices for passenger rail. With air ticket prices falling after Bush's deregulation of the aviation industry and Americans falling back in love with their cars amid a new oil glut, ridership drops precipitously.
 
Chapter 4

Amtrak's prospects don't look any brighter when Bush's Vice President, Bob Dole, succeeds him in 1988. Dole implements a more conservative economic policy than his predecessor, using drastic cuts to social services to balance the budget. Popular support for mass transit ebbs amid a strong economy, and Dole's approval ratings remain strong throughout the first half of his term, which was marked by the fall of the Berlin Wall and the gradual collapse of the Soviet Bloc. However, Dole's poll numbers begin to decline in 1990 with his nomination of judge Robert Bork to replace William Brennan on the Supreme Court. Bork is far more conservative than any of Bush's Supreme Court appointments (Carla Anderson Hills, Douglas Ginsburg, and Anthony Kennedy), and Senator Ted Kennedy leads liberal Democrats in opposing his nomination. Bork is ultimately confirmed with Vice-President Kemp breaking a tie in the Senate, but the episode mobilizes female and African American voters, leading to a Democratic wave election in 1990.

In 1991, Dole is faced with a new crisis overseas as the Saddam Hussein regime in Iraq collapses after the withdrawal of Soviet support. Iraq quickly descends into a civil war fueled by ethnic tensions and an influx of Islamist mujahideen from Afghanistan, halting oil exports from the country and causing a spike in oil prices. Dole resists calls for new price controls, but reluctantly agrees to restore rail service on lines that had been cut under the Bush administration.

By 1992, the country is in recession. Dole signs a large tax cut, but the stimulus isn't enough to lift the economy by election day. Dole loses to Tennessee Senator Al Gore, with running mate Bob Graham.
 
Chapter 5

President Gore comes into office with an ambitious environmental agenda, which he folds into a first-term economic stimulus package. The package includes funding for the expansion of high-speed rail from Los Angeles to Denver and Phoenix, and from Sacramento north to Portland and Seattle, along with track upgrades to enable speeds of up to 200 miles per hour on the express routes from Washington to Boston and from New York to Chicago. The Department of Transportation begins initial planning for an extension of the Amtrak network south from Washington to Atlanta and the creation of a network connecting the major cities in Texas.

By the beginning of 1994, the economy has regained strength, and President Gore uses the State of the Union Address to call for a permanent energy tax. The new tax would finally provided a dedicated revenue source for Amtrak, while reducing pollution, but it's highly unpopular with both the public and representatives of energy-producing states, and is never passed by congress. President Gore's overreach is widely blamed for the Democrats' loss of both the House and Senate in 1994, and the ensuing six years of Congressional stasis. President Gore signs the Kyoto Protocol in 1997, but Senate Majority Leader Lott declares the treaty dead on arrival. There will be no major action on climate issues for the remainder of President Gore's term. However, Gore is able to secure enough funding to complete his proposed extensions of the high-speed rail network (minus the network in Texas, which is blocked by a coalition of budget airlines, hotels, and fast food restaurants), and shortly before leaving office, he travels on the inaugural run of the 21st Century Limited, an overnight train which makes the journey from New York to Los Angeles in 16 hours.
 
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