Algerian intervention in the Libyan Civil War

I know the Libyan Civil War is hardly history at this point but all through it i was wondering how foreign intervention on Gaddafi's side would have changed things.

The PoD i had in mind was the the Algerians, hoping to put a stop the the Arab Spring to protect their own regime step in to help out their old friend Gaddafi. Perhaps around early April when Gaddafi's men were bouncing back from the setbacks from the start of NATO intervention.

My PoD may not be the best, i'm open to suggestions.

I think Algerian forces could go straight to the the Nafusa Mountains, stopping the rebels from taking Wazzin therefore starving them of supplies and maybe allowing loyalists to retake the area.

Also, if this allows the Loyalists to remain in control (not saying it will), how will this effect things? I'm thinking the Arab Spring looses momentum because they see that uprisings don't always work.

Looking forward to your thoughts
 
If Algeria intervenes it would have to be before NATO start their campaign.
But if they did intervene I can't see the rebels lasting too long. I can imagine the Algerian army is much better trained than what Gaddafi has. Personally I think you need a POD before the NATO campaign.
If Algeria intervened on the side of Gaddafi, it would earn Algeria a high casualty rate. I'm sure NATO wouldn't mind attacking those aiding Gaddafi no matter what country they are from. NATO may even decide that they could go for a few spots in Algeria too.
Another thing that could happen is that with some of the Algerian army away, the people decide to revolt and start their own Arab Spring. By trying to stop Libya revolting they could be causing their own.
 
Hello.
I am glad to see this thread,because i have a different idea.

Mubarak in Egypt is replaced with an army junta,and to solve economical problems, they attack oil rich Libya, under Gadaffi goverment regime.

Gadaffi then ask for support from Italy and France.

But, to attack Egypt is a whole new story,i am not sure if the WEST would intervene
 
If Algeria intervenes it would have to be before NATO start their campaign.
But if they did intervene I can't see the rebels lasting too long. I can imagine the Algerian army is much better trained than what Gaddafi has. Personally I think you need a POD before the NATO campaign.
If Algeria intervened on the side of Gaddafi, it would earn Algeria a high casualty rate. I'm sure NATO wouldn't mind attacking those aiding Gaddafi no matter what country they are from. NATO may even decide that they could go for a few spots in Algeria too.
Another thing that could happen is that with some of the Algerian army away, the people decide to revolt and start their own Arab Spring. By trying to stop Libya revolting they could be causing their own.

Maybe Algeria could get involved in early March? Do you think Gaddafi could hold up against NATO if Algeria helped? Also, Gaddafi might have some favours to call in from Tanzania or Zimbabwe, any chance of help there?
 
Hello.
I am glad to see this thread,because i have a different idea.

Mubarak in Egypt is replaced with an army junta,and to solve economical problems, they attack oil rich Libya, under Gadaffi goverment regime.

Gadaffi then ask for support from Italy and France.

But, to attack Egypt is a whole new story,i am not sure if the WEST would intervene

I don't think Egypt's anywhere near stable enough to think about war.
 
still, Gadafi's army was not strong, both rebels and goverment didn't have 20.000 troops together, an invasion of 100.000 profesional soldiers, from 80. mil Egypt was a piece of cake for them

Actually, the war cost the lives of 30,000 soldiers so they clearly had 20,000 between them. Either way, Egypt had nothing to gain by jumping into a totally unnessecary and unprovoked war.
 
Maybe Algeria could get involved in early March? Do you think Gaddafi could hold up against NATO if Algeria helped? Also, Gaddafi might have some favours to call in from Tanzania or Zimbabwe, any chance of help there?
Algeria could get involved in early march.

But it is worth noting that Algeria has already started reforms to appease its own people. If Algeria is determined to go down the dictator path and help out Libya then it will face more trouble from its own people. To stop that they either give in or go down the Syria path which may crreate a bigger NATO force and attack both. I don't know anything about the military of Algeria but I am skeptical whether they could hold out against Nato and especially with Libyan rebels attacking them. I imagine if Algeria intervened for Gaddafi then the rebels would go underground and become a guerila force.

I dont believe Zimbabwe will get involved. It is too far away and they have very little money so I think sending help to Libya would be too costly. They won't be able to send by boat as they would be killed before arriving, the trip by land would be too long and require enormous amounts of supplies. Thye would have to do it by air and get permission to pass through those other countries. That ofcourse is hoping NATO don't shoot those planes down.

Tanzania I don't know much about but I imagine they have similar problems to zimbabwe in this scenario.

Personally Algerian intervention is possible if done at the right time. But it would need to be done right as NATO would not allow much and since ground troops won't be used NATO casualties would be very minimal.
 
Algeria could get involved in early march.

But it is worth noting that Algeria has already started reforms to appease its own people. If Algeria is determined to go down the dictator path and help out Libya then it will face more trouble from its own people. To stop that they either give in or go down the Syria path which may crreate a bigger NATO force and attack both. I don't know anything about the military of Algeria but I am skeptical whether they could hold out against Nato and especially with Libyan rebels attacking them. I imagine if Algeria intervened for Gaddafi then the rebels would go underground and become a guerila force.

I dont believe Zimbabwe will get involved. It is too far away and they have very little money so I think sending help to Libya would be too costly. They won't be able to send by boat as they would be killed before arriving, the trip by land would be too long and require enormous amounts of supplies. Thye would have to do it by air and get permission to pass through those other countries. That ofcourse is hoping NATO don't shoot those planes down.

Tanzania I don't know much about but I imagine they have similar problems to zimbabwe in this scenario.

Personally Algerian intervention is possible if done at the right time. But it would need to be done right as NATO would not allow much and since ground troops won't be used NATO casualties would be very minimal.

Regarding NATO/Algeria. Of course Algeria gets involved before NATO does. This makes things more complicated for NATO, seeing as they won't just be bombing Gaddafi's men, but another nation too, a nation which doesn't seem on the brink of collapse the way Libya was. I imagine the UK/France/America won't be daunted by this, however, Algeria is friendly with both Russia and China, increasing the chance of a veto. If Russia and/or China vetos then the rebellion is likely crushed. Gaddafi will win the 2nd battle of Benghazi with Algerian support and the rest of the rebellion will crumble then go underground. If no veto happens or NATO bombs Libya anyway... well, that's what i'm trying to find out. I doubt any UN resolution would allow bombing Algeria, so Algerian troops would only be targets if they were on Libyan soil.

Regarding Zimbabwe and Tanzania, both these countries had very good relations with Gaddafi, but you're probably right that they wouldn't really have troops to spare so anything beyond diplomatic support is unlikely.

Regarding protests in Algeria, perhaps if Algeria offered support of volunteers to Gaddafi as opposed to a proper military intervention, but that would severely limit Algeria's difference in the war.

Thoughts?
 
In the early days of the civil war there were rumours (untrue as it turned out) that Egyptian army units were fighting alongside the rebels. If Algeria intervened on the side of Gaddafi would post revolution Tunisia and Egypt intervene on the side of the NTC? You could have a war stetching most of the length on the southern med littoral
 
In the early days of the civil war there were rumours (untrue as it turned out) that Egyptian army units were fighting alongside the rebels. If Algeria intervened on the side of Gaddafi would post revolution Tunisia and Egypt intervene on the side of the NTC? You could have a war stetching most of the length on the southern med littoral

No way would Tunisia get involved without very good reason. Gaddafi's men got into three altercations with the Tunisians during the war (The Battle of Wazzin, the Skirmish at Douz and the Battle of Ras Ajdir) and they did nothing more than try to protect their own country. Egypt as i've said was far too unstable. If they wouldn't go after Gaddafi by himself, they surely wouldn't go after Gaddafi AND Algeria. They have nothing to gain.
 
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